August 2025 Market Snapshot: Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County

Brad Daniels
Sep 9
5 min read

Blue background with text: "The Monday Real Estate Market Update" in white and copper. House icon. Date: September 8th, 2025.

Table titled "Cromford Market Index." Lists rankings for areas on Sept 4, 2025, with index values, changes, and previous month data.

📊 Overall Sales Activity

5,875 closed transactions
- Down 1.5% from August 2024 (5,963)
- Down 3.8% from July 2025
New Homes: 1,308 closed sales
- Down 10.0% from August 2024 (1,453)
- Up 3.9% from July 2025
Re-Sales: 4,567 closed transactions
- Up 1.3% from August 2024 (4,510)
- Down 5.8% from July 2025

Note: August 2025 had 21 working days compared to 22 in August 2024. That gave last year a 4.8% advantage, so this year’s numbers are slightly stronger than they first appear.

💰 Median Sales Prices

Overall: $475,000
- Up 1.1% year-over-year
- Up 0.2% month-over-month
New Homes: $534,998
- Up 4.2% year-over-year
- Up 0.6% month-over-month
Re-Sales: $449,999
- Flat compared to both August 2024 and July 2025 ($450,000)

Long-Term Peaks:

Resale median peaked in May 2022 at $486,000 (down 7.4% since then).
New home median peaked in January 2025 at $539,440 (down only 0.8% since then).

🏡 Market Share Shift

New Homes: 22.3% of the market in August 2025
- Down from 24.4% last year
- Up from 20.6% last month

This indicates that new home sales have lost ground year-over-year but regained some share compared to July.

📈 Market Trends & Cromford Index

The 7-week upward trend is slowing as supply stabilizes and demand makes a modest recovery.

Average monthly change in CMI*: 8.4% (slower than last week’s 9.3%)
Cities improving for sellers: 13
Cities improving for buyers: 4 (Maricopa, Tempe, Glendale, and Paradise Valley)

Front-runners for sellers: Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Avondale, Gilbert, Cave Creek, Surprise, and Peoria.

Paradise Valley: After leading for several weeks, it’s beginning to soften.

Current market breakdown:

6 seller’s markets
4 balanced markets
7 buyer’s markets

🔎 Takeaway

While prices remain stable and demand is edging upward, supply is expected to rise again as we head into the fall. That could bring more opportunities for buyers and test the resilience of sellers in certain areas.

*Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.

Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 09/05/2025

So far, there has been nothing from “jobs week” to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17. In fact, the jobs data has generally come in weaker than expected, with the anemic jobs report on Friday providing a significant boost. At the same time, a growing number of Fed members are voicing concerns about the upside risks to the unemployment rate. Let’s take a look…….

Job openings dropped

The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) showed that total job openings in July 2025 fell 2% month-over-month to 7.18 million. That was below expectations (~7.4 million) and is the lowest figure seen since December 2020. Both the hire rate (3.3%) and the quit rate (2.0%) remained very low.

Graph showing green line of total job openings from Jan 2018 to Jan 2024. Peaks in early 2022, then declining. Source: Bureau of Labor.

So ADP: Weak private job growth.

Private employers added just 54,000 jobs in August (vs. 70,000 expected). Over the last six months, job gains have averaged 62,000 per month. Over the last 3 months, 46,000. The annual wage increase for “job leavers” was 7.1%, while the increase for job stayers was 4.4%.

BLS Jobs Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August jobs report delivered a sobering message: nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, far below the Wall Street forecast of around 75,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent from July’s 4.2 percent. Revisions revealed that June saw a contraction of 13,000 jobs (revised from a small gain) and July was nudged up slightly to +79,000, meaning combined employment in June and July came in 21,000 lower than previously estimated. Healthcare remained the only bright spot, adding 31,000 jobs, while sectors such as the federal government, mining, wholesale trade, and manufacturing all saw notable weakness or outright losses.

For mortgage markets, this weak jobs data reinforces the narrative that the economy is slowing and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with interest rate cuts this fall. Investors responded quickly—Treasury yields slid to five-month lows as traders bet the report effectively guarantees a Fed cut at the next meeting. For homebuyers and homeowners, that’s an encouraging sign: lower yields often translate into easing mortgage rates, potentially opening up new opportunities for affordability and refinancing as we move toward the end of 2025.

Bond and Mortgage Market

“Jobs week” has so far been supportive of higher bond prices and lower bond yields. The JOLTs report showed a sizable drop in job openings, ADP reported very modest job gains, and the Challenger report highlighted a rise in job cut announcements. The yield on the 10-year US treasury is currently trading just below 4.20%, and average 30-year mortgage rates have moved to 6.5%.

With all of the above in mind, it’s no surprise to see that the probabilities for rate cuts have risen. A rate cut in September is fully priced in. Beyond that, the market remains uncertain about whether we’ll receive one or two more rate cuts before year-end.

Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.

September 17 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut (up from 85% a week ago).
October 29 FOMC Meeting: 54% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 44% a week ago). That means a 25 bps rate cut at both the September and October meetings. 45% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both).

December 10 FOMC Meeting: 45% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (up from 36% last week). That means a rate cut at each of the three meetings before the end of the year.

Average 30-year mortgage rates: Current 6.50%, past year 6.35%, previous peak 7.79%, recent low 6.08%. Illustrated with houses, clouds, sun.

Market in a Minute...National View

Housing Market

Spending on new single-family housing edged up in July. Overall construction continues to decline due to rising rates and increased inventories.
Homebuyers are backing out of deals more often, and purchase deals are now falling through at rates not seen in years, signaling growing caution.
Purchase mortgage apps fell 6% from the previous week but were up 17% year over year. Refi applications rose 1% for the week and 20% over the same period last year.

Economy

The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity and hiring have remained mostly flat in recent weeks, with tariffs weighing on businesses and consumers.
Job openings dropped sharply to 7.18 million in July, the second-lowest level since the pandemic began. Slower hiring signals labor market weakness.
Factory orders slid in July, hit hard by plunging aircraft bookings. However, non-transportation orders rose more than expected.

Weekly Weather Snapshot - Metro Phoenix

Tuesday (Today): Mostly sunny and hot, with highs around 106 °F (41 °C) and lows near 81 °F (27 °C).
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, and scorching—peak temperatures around 107 °F (42 °C).
Thursday: Still very warm and a touch breezy. Highs around 103 °F (40 °C).
Friday & Saturday: Slight cooldown with highs in the upper 90s (98–99 °F / 37 °C). Plenty of sunshine to keep things bright.
Sunday & Monday: Temperatures climb again to the low 100s (101–102 °F / 39 °C), with a mix of hazy sunshine by Monday.