Cooling Trend Continues in Phoenix, Arizona: June 2025 Housing Market Shifts Further Toward Buyers

The Phoenix housing market trends in June 2025 continue to indicate a shift in momentum from sellers to buyers. According to the Cromford Market Index (CMI), the average weekly change sits at -2.7%, matching last week’s decline. This consistent drop signals a notable cooling trend as the summer season sets in

Paradise Valley Defies the Trend

Of all the 17 major cities analyzed, only Paradise Valley showed improvement for sellers over the past month, just as it did last week. PV posted a strong +15% increase in CMI, driven primarily by a sharp decline in available homes. Many high-end homeowners have opted to cancel or delay their summer listings, resulting in the lowest inventory levels since September 2024. In fact, 34 cancellations have been recorded in the past month alone, and with June 30 approaching, a spike in expired listings is expected to tighten inventory further.

Most Cities Declining—Some More Than Others

The remaining 16 cities showed a decline in market favorability for sellers. While many changes were modest, some stood out:

• Buckeye took the largest hit, falling below the neutral line of 50 with an -8% change, now firmly in buyer’s market territory.

• Fountain Hills and Phoenix followed with -6% drops, both trending further away from seller control.

• Cave Creek transitioned from a balanced market into a buyer’s market.

• Avondale has shifted from a seller’s market to a balanced market.

Metro Phoenix Market Breakdown – June 2025

Based on the current CMI data:

• Seller’s Markets: 2 (1 is considered very weak)

• Balanced Markets: 7

• Buyer’s Markets: 9

This breakdown highlights a key takeaway: if you’re planning to buy a home in Phoenix, your timing may be ideal as inventory increases and seller leverage weakens.

Secondary City Housing Trends – Buyer’s Markets Expand

Among Arizona’s secondary markets, the majority are now leaning toward buyers:

🟦 Buyer’s Markets:

• Arizona City

• Casa Grande

• Gold Canyon

• Laveen

• Litchfield Park

• Sun City

• Sun City West

• Sun Lakes

🟥 Seller’s Markets:

• Anthem

• Apache Junction

• El Mirage

• Tolleson

Currently, there are no balanced markets among secondary cities, although Sun Lakes is showing early signs of transitioning as its inventory begins to decline seasonally.

💡 What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you’re a buyer relocating to Arizona, this market presents growing opportunities across many cities, with less competition and increased leverage in negotiations. On the other hand, sellers may need to adjust their pricing expectations and marketing strategies, especially in cities where demand is cooling more rapidly.

📞 Thinking of Moving to Arizona? Let’s Talk

At RelocateToAZ.com, I specialize in helping buyers—especially those relocating from out of state—navigate the changing Arizona housing market with confidence. Whether you’re looking in Phoenix, Paradise Valley, or the East Valley suburbs, I’ll help you find the right home at the right price.

👉 Let’s schedule a quick consultation to discuss your goals. Call or text me at

(602) 679-1025 or start exploring at www.RelocateToAZ.com

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Mortgage Market and Economic Update –

Week Ending 06/20/2027

Due to ongoing economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve has decided to keep its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged. This environment has also contributed to a slowdown in both the construction and retail sectors. Additionally, unemployment claims are trending higher. Read on for further analysis and details.

Fed Remains Cautious, Holds Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, continuing the pause that began in January. This decision, widely anticipated by analysts, reflects the Fed’s ongoing concerns about balancing the risks associated with both inflation and unemployment.

Remember: The Fed Funds Rate affects the overnight lending rate between banks, influencing broader interest rates throughout the economy, although it does not directly set mortgage or long-term rates.

What’s the bottom line? The Fed remains committed to its dual mandate: maintaining price stability and promoting maximum employment. Achieving both goals simultaneously can be challenging, especially as new tariffs add to economic uncertainty. Typically, persistent inflation discourages rate cuts, while signs of an economic slowdown would prompt the Fed to consider lowering rates.

Looking forward, the Fed will closely watch upcoming reports on inflation and employment, as its future policy decisions may depend on which risks become more pressing. Notably, the Fed’s most recent projections for 2025 indicate that core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.1%, higher than the previous estimate of 2.8%. The unemployment rate is also projected to edge up slightly to 4.5% from the 4.4% estimate in March.

Despite these uncertainties, most Fed officials still anticipate two interest rate cuts later this year.

Unemployment Claims Indicate Cracks in the Labor Market

 Initial weekly jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 245,000, but this figure remains among the highest levels recorded since October. Continuing claims also dropped slightly by 6,000, bringing the total to 1.945 million. For over a year, continuing claims have remained above 1.8 million and have now been above 1.9 million for four consecutive weeks.

What’s the bottom line? The upward trend in both initial and continuing unemployment claims underscores persistent challenges within the labor market. Furthermore, since unemployment benefits usually last only 26 weeks, the increase in continuing claims as benefits expire suggests more profound weaknesses in the job market. It indicates that hiring is proceeding at a slower pace.

Mortgage Market

 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been receiving a lot of criticism lately from the President (and even the new FHFA Director, Bill Pulte) for not cutting rates. But put yourself in Powell’s shoes. You can understand his reluctance to loosen monetary policy before the actual impact of the “Liberation Day” tariffs shows up in the numbers. Remember: the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.

That said, here are my issues with the Fed’s extended ‘pause’:

1. The Fed lifted rates 500 bps as “headline” CPI rose from 2% (Jan 2021) to 9% (June 2022). The latest “headline” CPI figure is 2.4% (May 2025), but the Fed has only cut rates by 100 bps. In my mind, there is absolutely room to cut rates by another 50–100 bps.

2. So much of the reported inflation is coming from “shelter” costs (rent + owner’s equivalent rent), which, due to the BLS’s collection method, captures rental market conditions from 1–1.5 years ago.

3. The consistently negative revisions to the initial BLS jobs report, along with the very different picture we’re getting from data sources like ADP and Challenger, suggest that the labor market is far from ‘strong’.

Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.

• July 30 FOMC Meeting: 77% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 83% last week). 23% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 17% last week), which means one 25 bps rate cut.

• September 17 FOMC Meeting: 64% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 57%). This implies one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both. 19% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings).

• October 29 FOMC Meeting: 47% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (two rate cuts throughout the subsequent three meetings). A 12% probability that rates will be 75 bps below the current level.

• December 10 FOMC Meeting: Roughly 40% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current. To sum up, the market is pricing in 2–3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each before year-end. That’s one cut more than Fed members are (in general) expecting.

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Housing Market

• Sales of new single-family homes dropped 13.7% in May and 6.3% from a year ago, well below both the six-month and the one-year average.

• However, pending home sales increased in May after a sharp decline the previous month, with contract signings rising 1.8% as inventory levels eased.

• Home mortgage applications dropped 0.4% last week compared with the previous week, but were 11% higher than the same week a year ago.

Economy

• Readings indicate that in June, consumers became less pessimistic about the economy and inflation, as global trade tensions showed signs of easing.

• Although new unemployment claims decreased last week, continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021.

• Some Fed members have come out saying they would like to see the Fed cut policy rates as soon as next month’s meeting, if inflation stays low.

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Have a great week! Brad Daniels (602) 679-1025 #CallBradToSellYourPad