East Valley Housing Market Update: Mortgage Rates, Home Prices & New Construction | September 28, 2026

September 28, 2026 | By Brad Daniels, Realtor®

What is happening in the East Valley housing market this week? Mortgage rates have moved above 7%, Phoenix-area sale prices remain relatively steady, and new construction may be shifting farther toward the Valley’s edges.

If you are buying, selling, or relocating to Mesa or a nearby city, the details of your particular neighborhood and price range matter more than any single market headline. Phoenix-area prices remain relatively steady

The latest completed ⁠ARMLS market report, released September 17 with August data, recorded 23,406 active listings, down 1.4% from July. The median sale price was $445,000—down 1.1% from July but up 1.1% from August 2025. Median time on market increased from 61 to 64 days.

ARMLS also found that asking prices have been adjusting while closed sale prices have held steadier. That is useful context, but these are marketwide figures, not a pricing guide for every home in Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, or Queen Creek.

When I help a seller set a price, I want to know more than what the last comparable home sold for. I also look at the homes buyers can tour right now, how long those homes have been listed, and whether sellers have reduced their prices. Buyers are making those comparisons, too. Mortgage rates bring the monthly payment into focus

According to ⁠Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% on September 24, up from 6.95% the previous week. At the comparable point last year, it was 6.30%.

That change makes it especially important to compare the full payment, rather than shopping by purchase price alone. Taxes, insurance, HOA fees, and loan terms all affect what a home costs each month.

For some buyers, negotiating seller-paid closing costs or a mortgage-rate buydown may be more useful than asking for the same amount off the price. The right choice depends on the loan and how long the buyer expects to keep it, so I would have a lender price out the options before writing an offer.

New construction is shifting across Arizona

A recent analysis from ⁠The Cromford Report found that Arizona issued 2,097 single-family building permits in August, down just 2.8% from August 2025. June and July were also close to their year-earlier levels. After a much steeper decline, that suggests the slide in permitting may be leveling off—although activity remains low.

The local differences are striking. Cromford reports that year-to-date single-family permits are down 36% in Mesa and 43% in Gilbert, while Apache Junction is up 29% and Florence is up 42%. The Census Bureau released its revised August permit figures for states and local jurisdictions on ⁠September 24.

Permits tell us about a possible future supply pipeline. They do not tell us how many completed new homes are competing with a resale listing today. Still, the shift is worth watching if you are comparing an established East Valley neighborhood with a growing community farther out. What does this mean for your move?

If you are selling: Price against the current competition in your neighborhood, including any nearby new homes a buyer would seriously consider. A strong asking price should be supported by the home’s condition, features, and recent comparable sales.

If you are buying: Look for opportunities among homes that have been on the market longer, but stay ready to act when a well-priced home fits your needs. Compare a price reduction, closing-cost credit, and rate buydown using actual lender figures.

If you are relocating: Treat the East Valley as a collection of different markets. Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction offer different home styles, commutes, HOA costs, and levels of new construction. A broad metro statistic is a starting point for your search, not the final answer.

If you would like to know what is happening around a specific home or neighborhood, I can put together a focused look at recent sales, active competition, and the options that fit your budget.

Brad Daniels, Realtor® | My Home Group⁠ RelocateToAZ.com | 602-679-1025