Greater Phoenix Housing Trends July 7th, 2025.
- Brad Daniels
- Jul 7
- 5 min read
July 2025 Phoenix Housing Market Update: Seller Conditions Still Soft,
But Declines Are Slowing. Another week brings another dip in the Greater Phoenix housing market for sellers—but there’s a silver lining. The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* now sits at -1.7%, a notable improvement from last week’s -2.7%. This suggests that while the market continues to tilt in favor of buyers, the rate of change is easing. Greater Phoenix Housing Trends July 7th, 2025
Only two cities are currently showing improving conditions for sellers. Paradise Valley remains the strongest performer, climbing an impressive 25% over the past month. Cave Creek has also reversed course, bouncing back into a balanced market after slipping into buyer territory.
Meanwhile, 15 cities declined, though most saw only modest drops. Avondale took the hardest hit, down 10%, followed by Buckeye and Fountain Hills, each down 7%.
Here’s where the balance currently stands:
2 cities are seller’s markets (one very weak)
8 cities are balanced
7 cities are buyer’s markets
🏡 June 2025 Market Stats – Maricopa County Affidavits of Value
The data for June closings has been analyzed, and here’s what we’re seeing in the Phoenix Housing Market Update for July 2025
Total closed transactions: 6,621⬇️ Down 0.2% from June 2024⬇️ Down 6.5% from May 2025
New home sales: 1,379⬇️ Down 13% year-over-year⬇️ Down 8.2% from May
Re-sale transactions: 5,242⬆️ Up 3.8% year-over-year⬇️ Down 6.0% from May
Overall median sales price: $480,000⬆️ Up 1.1% from June 2024⬇️ Down 1.0% from May
New home median price: $528,349⬆️ Up 4.9% from June 2024⬆️ Up 1.6% from May
Re-sale median price: $459,994⬇️ Down 1.1% from June 2024⬇️ Down 2.3% from May
While June 2025 had 20 working days, versus 19 in June 2024, suggesting we should have seen about 5% more closings, the market didn’t quite deliver. Resale closings grew nearly 4%, which isn’t far off expectations. However, new home closings fell sharply—down 13%—marking their weakest June since 2019. Builders are likely to slow their start volumes to focus on moving current inventory, especially spec homes and those under construction.
💡 Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers
The overall market isn't great for sellers, but it isn’t collapsing either. Resale prices are down slightly year-over-year, but that translates into greater affordability when adjusted for inflation (latest CPI at 2.4%). For buyers, especially those who have felt priced out over the past few years, this shift could be a welcome opportunity.
As always, staying informed with real-time data is crucial for making the right move, whether you're buying, selling, or simply watching the market. The Cromford Market Index is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the market balance. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous
four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 7/4/2025
It was a shortened week this past week with the 4th of July holiday. But let’s take a look at what happened and what is moving interest rates.
The 1Q 2025 GDP became significantly more negative.
First quarter GDP was revised lower, from -0.2% annualized to -0.5% annualized. The downgrade was driven mostly by lower consumer spending, which was revised to +0.5% (from +1.2% previously). US GDP had grown at +2.4% in the previous quarter (4Q 2024). [BEA]
There are three readings of quarterly GDP: ‘advanced’, ‘preliminary’ (1st revision) and ‘final’ (2nd revision). This was the final reading. While the 1Q ended before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on April 2, a rush to import products in advance of the tariffs created a significant drag on GDP because net export (exports minus imports) has been negative for the US for decades.
“Core” PCE (inflation) accelerated in May [BEA]
There are two ways to look at this report:
Negative: +0.2% MoM for “core” PCE was higher than expectations of +0.1% MoM. And because monthly “core” PCE was flat in May 2024, annual “core” PCE accelerated to +2.7% YoY in May 2025 (from +2.6% YoY in April 2025). Are we starting to see the impact of tariffs?
Positive: 0.2% monthly inflation is still very low inflation. If you annualize the last 3 months of monthly “Core” PCE, you get +1.6% YoY — way below the Fed’s 2% target
I think the optimistic viewpoint makes a lot more sense. This report, combined with the final revision to 1Q 2025 GDP (to -0.5% YoY) and the weak ADP numbers (see below), should provide Fed members with sufficient evidence to at least consider cutting rates on July 30.
ADP: Private employers shed jobs in June
After very weak job growth in May (+37,000), Wall Street economists were expecting a rebound in June (~100,000 estimated). Instead, ADP reported that private employers dropped a net 33,000 jobs. Breaking that down further, the services sector lost 66,000 jobs, and small and medium-sized companies lost 62,000 jobs.
Mortgage Market
Potential buyers got a little bit of relief this last week, with average mortgage rates trending lower on comments from various Fed members (rate cut possible in July) and the much weaker than expected ADP job numbers.
Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.
July 30 FOMC Meeting: 75% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 83% last week). 25% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 17% last week), which means one 25 bps rate cut.
September 17 FOMC Meeting: 73% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 57%). This implies one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both. 24% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings).
October 29 FOMC Meeting: 57% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (two rate cuts throughout the next three meetings). There is a 17% probability that rates will be 75 bps below the current level.
December 10 FOMC Meeting: Roughly 47% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current. To sum up, the market is pricing in 2–3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each before year-end. That’s one cut more than Fed members are (in general) expecting.
Market in a Minute...National View
Housing Market
Construction spending declined in May as higher mortgage rates and rising inventory levels impacted single-family housing projects.
Thirty percent of Boomers say they’ll never sell their home, and another 30% have no plans to sell in the next decade, according to a recent survey.
Mortgage purchase applications increased just 0.1% for the week but were 16% higher than the same week one year ago.
Economy
May saw fewer layoffs, while job openings jumped to their highest level since November, signaling a steady job market despite uncertainty.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, and more jobs were created than expected. Labor market strength makes a July Fed rate cut unlikely.
Exports tumbled in May, widening the trade deficit, but growing domestic production may lead to a rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
What I purchased on Amazon this week for Prime Days
I saved over 62% and upgraded to the nine-camera system with local storage. Installation was straightforward; however, the picture quality at night is a little disappointing. Link below ⬇️
https://a.co/d/bWdSl9l
Listing Sold 8660 E Nido Ave, Mesa, AZ 85209
East Valley Weather
Coming in hot 😡
Have a great week!!!
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