Greater Phoenix Market Update: Signs of Stabilization Amid Slower Sales in Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate.

The Greater Phoenix, Arizona, real estate market remains less favorable for sellers overall, but there are signs that this trend is slowing. The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* this week is -3.1%, a slight improvement from last week’s -3.5%. This marks the second consecutive week where the pace of decline has eased.

Over the past month, five cities in Arizona have shifted in favor of sellers, one more than the previous week. Surprise barely nudged into the positive column, while the remaining 12 cities leaned more toward buyers. Scottsdale, Phoenix, Glendale, Gilbert, and Chandler saw the most significant deterioration for sellers. On the other hand, Fountain Hills continued to strengthen its position at the top of the table, showing the most important improvement. Maricopa also made modest gains and finally pulled ahead of Buckeye.

Here's how the market stands today:

• 3 cities are in seller’s markets (though two are very weak)

• 7 cities are balanced

• 7 cities favor buyers, including Cave Creek, which just shifted from balanced to mild buyer’s territory

Inventory Trends & Seller Behavior

Supply is beginning to trend downward as fewer new listings hit the market. This is not unique to Arizona—sellers across the country appear to be holding off, waiting for better timing. The word is out: buyers currently have more leverage than they’ve had in years. However, we expect supply to decline gradually through the summer months, before the typical seasonal rise takes effect from September to November.

May Sales Recap: Maricopa County

Affidavits of Value for May 2025 are in, and here’s what we learned:

• Total Closed Sales: 7,097↳ down 10% from May 2024 (7,858) and 6% from April

• New Home Sales: 1,499↳ down 4.6% from May 2024 and 6.8% from April

• Resale Transactions: 5,580↳ down 11% from May 2024 and 5.8% from April

Median Sales Prices

• Overall: $485,000↳ Up 2.1% year-over-year and 5.2% from April

• New Homes: $520,000↳ Down just 0.1% YOY but up 7.2% from April

• Resales: $471,514↳ Up 2.5% YOY and 3.9% from April

Notably, May 2025 had two fewer business days than May 2024, so a 9% decline in closings would be expected even if activity had remained flat. Resale volume fell slightly more than expected, while new construction held up better than anticipated.

New Home Market Share

New homes accounted for 21.1% of total closings in May. That’s down a hair from last month’s 21.4%, but still higher than the 20% share we saw this time last year. For reference, new builds peaked last September at 25.8%.  *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Housing Market

• Construction spending fell in April, as the single-family market was hit by high rates and a growing glut of unsold homes.

• Though mortgage rates dipped last week, demand fell. Total mortgage applications dropped 3.9% from the week before.

• Unsold home inventory is up 33% from a year ago. Homes are taking longer to sell as supply outpaces demand.

Economy

• Job openings rose in April, but layoffs surged the most in 9 months. The job market may be cooling as tariff fears cloud the economic outlook.

• ADP reported private payroll growth of just 37K in May. It was the lowest monthly gain since March 2023 and much less than expected.

• Jobless claims rose to 247K last week, the highest since October, adding to signs of a cooling job market and rising layoff risks.  

  
  

☀ Weekly Outlook (June 9–16)

• Scorching high temps: Expect daytime highs between 108°F and 112°F, with today hitting a scorching 107°F.

• Nights remain warm: Overnight lows will linger in the 77–82°F range—barely “cooling” off.

• Mostly sunny skies: Clear skies are expected through Friday, with some clouds on Saturday, followed by sunny skies on Sunday.

• Health & outdoor tips:

  
  

  • Stay hydrated and limit sun exposure during peak hours.

  • Apply SPF, wear a hat, and take frequent shaded breaks if you’re outside.

  • Avoid strenuous activities midday—early mornings or evenings are safer.

  
  

  Have a great week!