Another Week Reporting a Swing in Favor of Buyers
The table is yet again reporting a swing in favor of buyers, and that's great news for my clients who are relocating from all over the country. We have 15 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month. We only have two cities that have improved over the past month, Goodyear and Cave Creek, although this time a more significant percentage has enhanced Cave Creek. The average change in Cromford Market Index (CMI)* over the past month is -5.2% while last week we saw -7.5%. This continues the trend we saw last week in which the trend in favor of buyers is starting to slow down. This has probably been influenced by a decline in mortgage rates over the past week.
The fastest decliners are Tempe down 11%, with Peoria and Chandler down 10%. The declines are generally milder than we saw last week.
Eight cities are still seller's markets, four are balanced, and five are buyer's markets. This is a slight improvement because Cave Creek has moved from balance to a seller's market, even if only by a tiny margin.
The supply of active listings without a contract is growing, but only 1.4% during the past week. This is slower than last month when we saw an increase of 2.0%. The contract ratio has increased to 38, which is low, but up from 37 last week. This time last year it stood at 55 but had trouble breaking above this level.
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*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the past four years' pending, active, and sold listings trends compared with historical data. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Still Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates?
You should know that experts predict mortgage rates will settle around 6.5% by year-end, meaning they may not drop as much as you’d hoped. If you need to move, there’s no need to wait—there are ways to make homeownership more affordable now. Options like buydowns, adjustable-rate mortgages, and assumable loans can help. Let’s connect, and I’ll introduce you to a top-notch lender!
Housing Market
At the end of January, there were 1.18 million homes for sale, an increase of 3.5 percent from December and 17 percent from January 2024.
The median price of a home sold in January was $369,900, up 4.8% from the previous year and the highest price ever.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 4.9% in January but were 2% higher than in January 2024.
Economy
The minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed that officials wanted to maintain policy rates despite stubborn inflation and economic uncertainty.
Mortgage rates have held steady to begin the year as inflation fears and concerns over a surge in debt issuance have failed to materialize.
Valley Weather - Get your umbrella ready
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