The Phoenix real estate market has recently displayed a shift that increasingly favors buyers, although the magnitude of change shows signs of slowing. Here's an in-depth look at the latest trends and figures defining the current landscape.
Phoenix housing market
✅ Phoenix real estate trends
✅ Arizona real estate market
Cromford Market Index (CMI)*:
Over the last month, we've observed deteriorations in 13 cities for sellers, while improvements have been noted in twice as many cities as the previous week. Notably, Buckeye and Maricopa have shown positive trends alongside Cave Creek, with Avondale replacing Goodyear in this cohort. Of these, three cities have recorded improvements exceeding 5%. The average change in CMI for the past month stands at -2.3%, a lesser decline compared to -5.2% observed last week, indicating a continuation of the recent trend in the Phoenix and surrounding areas.
Interest Rates and Mortgage Trends:
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond dropped from around 4.8% in mid-January to just below 4.2% in early March. This reduction offers potential relief for mortgage rates, which have previously soared above 7%, ranging between 6.7% and 6.8%.
Local Market Dynamics:
The fastest decline was observed in Queen Creek, which includes the expansive San Tan Valley area. Currently, eight cities are categorized as seller's markets, four as balanced, and five as buyer's markets, maintaining the same distribution as last week. Although new listings continue to outpace demand, the excess has reduced compared to earlier this year.
Transaction Insights for Maricopa County (January):
- Closed Transactions: 6,000, a slight increase from February's 5,933 and an 18% rise from January.
- Closed New Homes: Down to 1,283, a decrease of 4.6% from February but a 13% increase year-over-year.
- Closed Resale Transactions: Increased to 4,717, up 2.8% from February and 20% from January.
Median Sales Prices: The overall median sales price was $488,613 in February, a 4.6% increase from the previous year and a 0.7% rise from January. New home median prices were at $530,000, down from January by 2.7% but up 2.7% year-over-year. Resale homes saw a median price of $470,000, a 4.4% increase from last year and 2.2% from January.
Additional Considerations:
Given the difference in the number of working days between February 2024 and 2025 (20 in 2025 vs. 21 in 2024), we should adjust our interpretation of the closing numbers accordingly, estimating an increase of about 5% to align with 2024's data.
Overall, the market's resilience is evident at the top end, although mid-range volumes have recovered from earlier lows. The share of new homes has slightly declined to 21.4% from 22.7% a year ago.
These insights will help us understand current trends and adjust our strategies accordingly.
*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the pending, active, and sold listings trends compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Between the on-again-off-again tariffs, the weak ADP job growth in February 2025, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model calling for a contraction in 1Q 2025, there's been a lot of bad news and uncertainty over the last week. But much of that was good news for mortgage rates.
As a result, the "risk-off" trade has continued, with money piling out of stocks and into "haven" assets like bonds and gold. Higher bond prices (mathematically) mean lower yields, and lower MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) yields have helped average mortgage rates move lower.
Here's what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to stay on hold on March 19, but the odds of rate cuts on May 7 and June 18 have risen significantly over the last few weeks.
The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.
March 19 FOMC Meeting: 93% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 95% last week). In other words, that the Fed will stay on pause.
May 7 FOMC Meeting: 54% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (way down from 73% last week). 42% probability of a 25 bps cut (25 bps = 0.25% = a quarter percentage point) to 4.00–4.25%.
June 18 FOMC Meeting: 16% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 30% last week). 51% probability that the policy rate will be 25 bps below current (which implies one rate cut on either May 7 or June 18). 31% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (was 16%) last week.
Housing Market
Single-family construction spending rose 0.6% in January. Overall spending, including for multifamily and home improvements, fell by 0.4%
New apartment construction hit a record high last year. Developers completed almost 600K multifamily units, according to the U.S. Census.
Falling mortgage rates lit a fire under demand last week. Mortgage applications jumped 20%, the first increase in 3 weeks.
Economy
The Fed's most recent Beige Book showed a mixed employment picture and slight rise in economic activity since mid-January.
Unemployment applications fell more than expected last week, indicating the labor market remained stable in February.
Payroll processing firm ADP reported private companies added just 77K new workers in January, well below the 148K consensus estimate.
Sustainable Spaces: Landscaping
Homeowners take on outdoor projects for many reasons: curb appeal, resale value and the simple pleasure of having beautiful landscaping. Consumers report a "joy score" of 9.7 out of 10 after upgrading their landscaping, according to a 2023 report from the National Association of REALTORS®.
Real estate professionals continue to report that clients are more interested in sustainability. When considering sustainability as a selling point, thinking of energy-efficient appliances or low-VOC paint is natural. But landscaping can be sustainable as well. With 92% of REALTORS® recommending a curb appeal boost for sellers, why not increase the attractiveness to buyers by making that curb appeal eco-friendly, too?
The Value of Greener Landscaping
According to the Arbor Day Foundation's 2024 Canopy Report, four in 10 Americans say they chose their home location based on access to green spaces. Imagine the appeal to potential buyers when a listing's backyard has a beautiful, low-maintenance green space.
Eco-friendly landscaping helps reduce maintenance and conserve resources. That's a win for buyers interested in a beautiful lawn with less work and buyers who care about sustainable living.
Homes with thoughtfully planned sustainable landscaping offer several selling points:
Almost all landscaping overhauls, sustainable or not, improve curb appeal.
Sustainable landscaping boosts potential buyers' perception of the property.
It also reduces the need for water, lowering water bills.
It also helps reduce the time spent on yard work, increasing available leisure time.
7 Sustainable Landscaping Ideas
These eco-friendly landscaping ideas can boost curb appeal and homeowner satisfaction. They may also increase homes' resale value before they go on the market.
Think 'drought tolerant'
"A low-maintenance landscape is a selling point for potential buyers," says Corey Chetcuti, a designer and project director at Freemodel in Sacramento, Calif. "To help conserve water, a drought-tolerant [or] low-water landscape is necessary."
Drought-tolerant landscaping requires less watering and thrives even during long, dry summers. The best drought-tolerant plant choices for homeowners vary by location.
For example, a drought-tolerant landscaping project in California might include agave, sagebrush and bougainvillea. Drought-tolerant lawns in Colorado, however, might feature lavender, silver sage and white fir.
Plant more trees
Homeowners interested in lowering their carbon footprint should consider planting more trees.
According to the Sierra Club, prominent, mature trees have excellent carbon-capturing capability. Real estate professionals should point this out when showing a house with mature landscaping to sustainability-minded buyers. In regions with long, hot summers, large trees also keep the outdoor space cool and livable.
Select native plants
The National Wildlife Federation suggests aiming for 70% native plants in any lawn or landscaping overhaul. Native plants grow naturally in a specific region and help attract and benefit local birds, butterflies, and wildlife. They also tend to be low-maintenance. Since they were planted where they naturally bloom, they don't need much help to bloom where they're planted.
Consider a "no mow" lawn seed mix.
Homeowners who want a grassy lawn can still reduce mowing to once every two to three weeks by planting a "low/slow grow seed mix," says Susan Cohan, an award-winning professional landscape designer based in New Jersey. The best slow-growing grass seed for each homeowner depends on their location, so it's a good idea to seek advice from a local garden center. While "no mow" grass does not exist, a slow-growing grass seed mix can dramatically reduce yard maintenance. It also reduces the gasoline or electricity used to mow the lawn.
Swap out mulch for ground cover.
"Don't over-mulch trees and shrubs," says Cohan. "Try a ground cover instead." Ground cover refers to any low plant that grows over a large area. Like mulch, it helps keep the soil moist and reduces the possibility of soil erosion. But unlike mulch, ground cover is very low-maintenance and can often nearly sustain itself. It grows year after year without needing to be replaced.
Plant produce
According to Ashley Irene, the founder of Heirloom Potager, a boutique landscape design firm in Southern California, homeowners committed to sustainable living can take their landscaping to the next level by using compost to grow nutrient-rich vegetables and herbs. Raised garden beds to create a potager or small kitchen garden offer homeowners a delicious reward for their efforts while also reducing the need for mowing.
Opt for local, sustainable materials.
"Homeowners can also improve their environmental stewardship by using locally sourced materials for pathways and raised bed construction," Irene says.
Landscaping often includes walkways, water features, firepits, pergolas and more. Homeowners interested in sustainability should ditch the concrete and build hardscapes made from reclaimed wood, natural stone, sand or products made from recycled materials.
Valley Weather - Phoenix Arizona 3-10-25 to 10-17-2025
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