Six Weeks Running: Supply Shrinks and Demand Climbs in Phoenix, Arizona.
- Brad Daniels
- Sep 1
- 6 min read
Six Weeks Running: Supply Shrinks and Demand Climbs in Phoenix, Arizona.
The trend that began six weeks ago remains strong, with supply continuing to decline and demand on the rise. The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index now sits at 9.4%—a slight uptick from 9.3% last week.
Fifteen cities posted gains for sellers, while only two (Maricopa and Tempe) shifted in favor of buyers. Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale have been the strongest movers over the past month, while Paradise Valley shows signs of slowing.
Several other markets are also showing notable strength, including Avondale, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, and Surprise, which are all up by more than 10%.
At this point, we have six cities in seller’s market territory, four in balanced markets, and seven that remain in buyer’s markets - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team, RelocateToAz.com.
*Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over
the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.
Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/29/2025
A week ago, this past Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that a rate cut may be on the table, noting that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” His comments were one of the key takeaways from the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where central bankers and economists gather to discuss the global economy.
So far this year, the Fed has kept its main interest rate, the Federal Funds Rate, unchanged, aiming to balance concerns about inflation with the need to support job growth. However, as signs of a cooling labor sector emerge, so does the pressure on the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting on September 17.
With so much attention on this upcoming decision, it’s worth taking a quick look at who actually makes these calls and what their perspectives might be.
Who Makes Decisions About Interest Rates?
When you hear that “the Fed” is changing interest rates, the actual decisions come from a group called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This committee plays a crucial role in shaping U.S. monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates and the broader economy.
The FOMC is made up of 12 voting members:
The seven members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors
The President of the New York Fed, who always has a vote
And four of the remaining 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who rotate into voting roles each year
Even the regional Fed presidents who aren’t voting members still attend the meetings. They actively participate in discussions and share insights about economic conditions in their districts, which helps shape the committee’s overall view.
The FOMC meets eight times a year to review the latest economic and financial data. During these meetings, they assess factors such as inflation, employment, and overall economic growth to determine whether interest rates need to be adjusted or left unchanged. Their goal is to support stable prices and maximum employment over the long term.
Doves vs. Hawks: Two Different Perspectives on Policy
Within the Fed, and especially on the FOMC, you’ll often hear members described as either “doves” or “hawks.” These labels reflect how individual policymakers tend to view inflation, interest rates, and the economy.
Doves typically prioritize supporting employment and economic growth, and are often more comfortable with keeping interest rates lower for longer, even if inflation is slightly elevated.
Hawks are more focused on fighting inflation, even if that means raising rates or slowing parts of the economy. They see price stability as the foundation for long-term economic health.
These aren’t rigid labels. In fact, many Fed officials adjust their views in response to changing economic conditions. For example, while the Fed unanimously voted to hold rates steady at its first four meetings of the year, that unity began to shift in July. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman broke from the majority by favoring a 25-basis-point cut, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and the broader economy. Their dissent highlights how evolving data can lead to different policy conclusions even within the same committee.
Shifts in Fed leadership could also influence the direction of policy. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler recently resigned, leaving a vacancy on the Board of Governors. President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran – considered a dove in favor of cutting rates – to fill that seat. However, it’s unclear whether the Senate will confirm his nomination in time for the September 17 meeting.
In addition, President Trump has attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook after allegations of mortgage fraud surfaced. Cook has denied the allegations, and the attempt to fire her is expected to face legal challenges in court. If Trump is ultimately successful, he would likely appoint another dove, which could further shift the Fed’s policy stance heading into the fall.
Bottom Line: The Fed is walking a fine line, working to tame inflation without pushing the economy into a slowdown. Powell’s recent remarks suggest a rate cut is on the table, but the decision will largely depend on the data that comes in over the next few weeks, especially the August Jobs Report due on September 5. All eyes will be on the September 17 meeting and the direction it sets for monetary policy moving forward. Do you have a question regarding your mortgage rate, or would you like to get prequalified? Call Brad Daniels with the East Valley Real Estate Team.
Bond and Mortgage Market
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech increased market confidence that the first rate cut of 2025 will come on September 17. But the odds of further rate cuts in October and December didn’t really change that much. With the risks to inflation (upside) and employment (downside) currently “balanced” according to Jerome Powell, additional rate cuts will ultimately depend on the data, as we have several inflation and jobs reports before year-end.
Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.
September 17 FOMC Meeting: An 85% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 73% a week ago). There is a 15% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
October 29 FOMC Meeting: 44% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 34% a week ago). 49% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both).
December 10 FOMC Meeting: 36% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (up from 25% last week). There is a 48% probability that they’ll be 50 bps below the current rate.
Market in a Minute...National View
Housing Market
New home sales fell in July after June’s sharp upward revision. The housing market remains struggling as consumers grapple with affordability.
FHFA reports house prices rose 2.9% year over year but were unchanged from the 1st quarter, pointing to a slowdown in growth nationwide.
Pending sales cooled again in July, reflecting buyer caution in a market where affordability remains a challenge.
Economy
Both new jobless claims and continuing claims fell last week. Layoffs remain low even as hiring slows across the broader labor market.
Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports.
Consumer confidence declined in August as concerns about job prospects, tariffs, and inflation dampened household optimism.
East Valley Weather
Here’s your 7-day outlook for the East Valley
Quick Highlights & Tips
Very Hot Start to the Week
Expect searing temperatures to soar well above 105°F on Monday (106°F) and Tuesday (108°F), with persistent heat expected through midweek. Stay hydrated, plan outdoor activities for early mornings or evenings, and take frequent shade or cooling breaks.
Thunderstorm Watch
Afternoon thunderstorms may roll in on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, posing a risk of flash flooding—especially Thursday afternoon when a strong thunderstorm is forecast. Keep an eye on local alerts, avoid dry washes and low-lying areas, and refrain from travel if flash flooding advisories are in effect.
Gradual Cooling Trend
By the weekend, highs dip into the mid- to high-90s°F, though it’s still hot. Nights remain warm, with lows hovering between 74°F and 85°F, offering some relief but still feeling muggy.
Air Quality Concerns
Monday brings hazy skies and elevated ozone levels, which can impact sensitive groups. Limit outdoor exertion and consider indoor activities if you’re especially vulnerable.
Have a happy Labor Day and a great week ahead - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team
602-679-1025 | brad@homeselleraz.com | #CallBradToSellYourPad #RelocateToAz
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