Why Sellers Are Adjusting—and Buyers Are Paying Attention in Phoenix, AZ
- Brad Daniels
- Feb 9
- 4 min read
Why Sellers Are Adjusting—and Buyers Are Paying Attention in Phoenix, AZ
The number of cities moving in a buyer-friendly direction increased from 9 to 13 this past week, while only 5 cities are now trending in favor of sellers.
The average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* fell 3.6%, a much sharper decline than last week’s modest -0.3% move. The prior seller-leaning trend has officially flipped, with momentum now favoring buyers.
Glendale posted the strongest move toward sellers at +4%, while Fountain Hills saw a significant 20% shift toward buyers—though it still remains firmly a seller’s market. Goodyear, Scottsdale, Queen Creek, Paradise Valley, and Cave Creek each saw a shift of 7% or more in favor of buyers.
Current market balance:
9 seller’s markets
3 balanced markets
6 buyer’s markets
January 2026 Maricopa County Sales Snapshot
Affidavits of Value for January have now been analyzed, and here’s what stood out:
4,829 total closings, down 4.7% YoY and 20.8% from December
885 new-home closings, down 22.2% YoY and 26.6% month-over-month
3,944 resale closings, up 0.4% YoY but down 19.4% from December
Median Sales Prices
Overall median: $470,000 (-3.1% YoY, -4.0% MoM)
New homes: $536,490 (-0.5% YoY, -0.5% MoM)
Resale homes: $450,000 (-2.2% YoY, -4.3% MoM)
January 2026 had 20 working days, giving it a 5% disadvantage compared to January 2025 and a 10% disadvantagecompared to December 2025. When adjusted for this, the year-over-year drop in total closings is essentially flat.
What This Means
The real story is the divergence between resale and new-home activity. Resales performed relatively well, with closings per working day up meaningfully compared to last January—despite only a modest 0.4% headline increase.
New homes, however, had a very weak month. 885 closings is the lowest January total in nearly 10 years, and new-home market share fell to 18.3%, the lowest level since July 2022.
While new-home median prices appear relatively stable, they do not reflect substantial builder incentives, which often sit below the headline price. Median pricing also skews toward the low- and mid-range of the market and does not benefit from strength in luxury price points above $2M.
Bottom line: The resale market is holding up reasonably well given current conditions, though sellers are conceding slightly on price. The new-home market has a clear volume problem, making this a challenging start to 2026 for builders.
Economic Update: Mixed Signals, Steady Ground
The economy continues to send mixed messages as we move deeper into the first quarter. Some data points suggest slowing momentum, while others point to continued resilience. For buyers, sellers, and anyone watching interest rates closely, this push-and-pull matters.
Interest Rates & the Fed
The Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see mode. Inflation has cooled meaningfully from its peak, but it hasn’t yet settled comfortably into the Fed’s target range. As a result, policymakers are signaling patience rather than urgency. Markets are still pricing in potential rate cuts later this year, but those expectations continue to shift week to week based on incoming data.
For housing, this means mortgage rates are likely to remain range-bound for now. We’re not seeing a sharp drop, but we’re also not seeing a breakout to the upside—something that has helped keep buyer demand alive despite affordability challenges.
Jobs & Consumer Spending
The labor market remains a bright spot, though it is gradually losing steam. Job growth is slowing, layoffs remain concentrated in specific sectors, and wage growth is moderating. This is a healthy development from the Fed’s perspective, as it reduces inflationary pressures without signaling a recession.
Consumers are still spending, but more selectively. Discretionary purchases are slowing, while spending on necessities remains strong. This shift is showing up in retail data and reinforces the idea that households are becoming more price-conscious.
Economic Growth
Recent GDP data show the economy is still expanding, but at a more sustainable pace. Strong consumer spending and business investment continue to support growth, even as higher interest rates act as a brake on growth. Importantly, there are no widespread signs of economic contraction—just normalization after several years of extremes.
What This Means for Housing
A slowing but stable economy is actually a constructive backdrop for real estate. It supports employment, keeps forced selling low, and gives the Fed room to eventually ease policy. At the same time, it encourages buyers and sellers to be more realistic on pricing and terms.
For buyers, this environment rewards patience, preparation, and negotiation. For sellers, it underscores the importance of pricing correctly and understanding that today’s market is driven by value—not urgency.
Bottom Line
The economy isn’t overheating, and it isn’t rolling over. It’s recalibrating. That creates a market where informed decisions matter more than timing headlines—and where opportunities still exist for those who understand the bigger picture.
Economy
Inflation continues to cool, allowing the Fed to stay patient while avoiding pressure to hike rates further.
Job growth is slowing but remains healthy, supporting consumer confidence without overheating the economy.
Economic growth is moderating to a more sustainable pace, reducing recession risk in the near term.
Housing Market
Buyer leverage is improving as more cities shift toward buyer or balanced conditions.
Sellers are adjusting prices modestly, especially in resale homes, while activity remains steady.
New-home sales volume is struggling, with incentives increasing to attract buyers.
I truly appreciate your continued referrals — they mean the world to me. If you’re thinking about relocating to Arizona or selling your home, let’s connect and make your next move a success.
Brad Daniels | East Valley Real Estate Team
📞 (602) 679-1025 | 🌐 www.RelocateToAZ.com
Comments