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More Cities Lean Buyer-Friendly as Seller Momentum Softens in Phoenix, Arizona The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to show subtle yet noticeable movement toward buyers, though overall conditions remain relatively stable amid the broader economy's volatility. This week, the number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers held steady at 9, unchanged from last week. Meanwhile, 8 cities shifted in favor of sellers, with 1 city remaining unchanged. While the changes are still modest overall, the single-family detached market has once again edged slightly more in favor of buyers over the past month. Two cities stood out most on the seller side this week: Surprise and Maricopa, both posted the largest percentage moves benefiting sellers, suggesting demand remains resilient in some of the more affordability-driven areas of the Valley. On the other hand, Queen Creek and Paradise Valley led the movement toward buyers, continuing a trend we’ve seen recently where higher price points and increased inventory are giving buyers more negotiating leverage in certain luxury and move-up markets. The average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* declined another 1.0% this week. That’s a more notable softening than last week’s modest 0.3% decline and signals that sellers are continuing to lose a bit of leverage as inventory gradually builds and buyers remain payment-sensitive. Current market breakdown across the 18 major cities: 8 cities are currently in a seller’s market 4 cities are balanced 6 cities are in a buyer’s market Even with the slight shift toward buyers, the market overall remains far more stable than many expected, given mortgage rate volatility, inflation concerns, and broader economic uncertainty. Most of the weekly changes remain relatively small, reinforcing that this is still a transitioning market rather than a sharply declining one. For buyers, opportunities are slowly improving with more inventory, longer market times in some areas, and increased negotiating flexibility. For sellers, pricing strategy and presentation remain critical as buyers continue to be selective and highly payment-conscious. Hotter Inflation, Higher Uncertainty: What It Means for Housing & Rates Oh my! That April CPI! Inflation surged on higher energy prices, which affect far more than just gasoline and jet fuel (airline tickets, fertilizer, etc.). So far, the housing market is showing resilience, but there is little doubt that higher mortgage rates are keeping spring/summer transaction volumes more muted than they would be otherwise. BLS: Economy added 115K jobs in April. While better than expected, April’s job growth was still modest. Over the last 12 months, only 251K net new jobs were created. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the negative revisions continue: February’s original -92K number ended up at -156K after two revisions. [BLS] Just look at the volatility of the BLS’ monthly jobs numbers! It looks like a Bitcoin price graph! Meanwhile, ADP’s monthly data has shown a clear — and fairly smooth — acceleration in job growth in 2026. April CPI, oh my! We knew it was coming, and it finally arrived. Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) jumped to +3.8% year-over-year in April from +3.3% YoY in March. And “Core” CPI (which excludes food & fuel prices) rose to +2.8% in April from +2.6% YoY in March. The main driver was higher energy prices (thanks to the US/Iran conflict), but shelter (housing) costs also jumped due to an accounting anomaly that should disappear next month. After the scorching April CPI (and PPI) reports, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut during the remainder of 2026 dropped to zero. In fact, the market is now assigning a 30% probability that rates will be 25 basis points HIGHER than they are today by year-end. Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Fed Chair by Senate. His confirmation hearings were contentious, focusing on: 1) his and the Fed’s independence given that he is President Trump’s appointee, and 2) his considerable individual and family wealth. Few questioned his qualifications. Mr. Warsh inherits a deeply divided Fed. He will remain under considerable pressure from President Trump to cut rates, but inflation is resurgent, and the job market is (at least superficially) strong. While the Fed Chair’s voice can be highly persuasive in crafting a consensus view, he’s only got one vote. Bond and Mortgage Market According to Freddie Mac’s weekly PMMS survey, average mortgage rates were roughly flat week-over-week. But given the bond market’s reaction to the scary April CPI figures, market mortgage rates are already moving higher. The market is still pricing in ZERO Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. In fact, the market is beginning to price in some probability of rate HIKES towards the end of the year. Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is currently 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market. • June 17 FOMC Meeting: This will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as the new Fed Chairman. 99% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 94% last week). • July 29 FOMC Meeting: 99% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 88% last week). • September 16 FOMC Meeting. 88% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75%. An 11% probability that rates will be 25 basis points HIGHER than they are today. • No rate cuts in 2026? If I look way out to the last FOMC meeting of the year (Dec 9), the market is pricing in a 62% probability (was 72% last week) that the Fed Funds Rate will be exactly where it is today. Additionally, the market is now pricing in a 37% probability that rates will be at least 25 basis points (and maybe 50 basis points) higher by year-end. Market in a Minute Housing: The Greater Phoenix single-family market continued a gradual shift toward buyers, with the average CMI* declining 1.0% over the past week — a larger change than the 0.3% decline we saw the week prior. Mortgage rates moved higher this past week, briefly reaching their highest levels in over a month as inflation concerns and rising Treasury yields continued to pressure the bond market. Of the 18 major cities tracked, 8 remain seller’s markets, 4 are balanced, and 6 are buyer’s markets, with Queen Creek and Paradise Valley showing the strongest movement favoring buyers. Economy April inflation came in hotter than expected, with CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year as higher energy prices continued to ripple through the economy, impacting everything from transportation to consumer goods. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, though ongoing downward revisions to prior months continue to paint a mixed picture of the labor market. Markets are now pricing in virtually no Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with some analysts beginning to anticipate the possibility of rate hikes later this year if inflation remains elevated. Weather ☀️ Arizona weather doesn’t get much better than this. With cooler temperatures and plenty of sunshine in the forecast, it’s the perfect week to get outside and enjoy everything the Valley has to offer—whether that’s hiking, golfing, relaxing by the pool, or exploring your favorite local spots. If you’ve been thinking about making a move, this is also a great reminder of why so many people love calling Arizona home. 🌵 Take advantage of this beautiful weather and enjoy the week ahead! Direct: 602-679-1025 | brad@homeselleraz.com | www.relocatetoaz.com #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad #ArizonaWeather #LivingInArizona #PhoenixAZ #ArizonaLifestyle

Buyers Slowly Regaining Leverage Across Phoenix, Arizona The Greater Phoenix housing market continues to show subtle shifts as we move deeper into the spring market, with buyers beginning to gain a little more leverage in several areas across the Valley. This week, the number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers increased to 9 — up from 6 last week — while 8 cities moved in favor of sellers, and 1 city remained unchanged. While the changes are still relatively modest overall, the data suggests the market is gradually becoming a bit more balanced after several weeks of stability. The overall single-family detached market has shifted very slightly in favor of buyers over the last month. Queen Creek and Paradise Valley led the strongest moves toward buyers, while Surprise and Maricopa posted the largest percentage shifts in favor of sellers. One of the more notable indicators this week was the movement in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)*. The average CMI declined by 0.3%, a noticeable change from the 1.6% increase we saw last week. While not a dramatic swing, the softer CMI trend suggests sellers are losing a small amount of leverage as inventory levels continue to improve and buyers become more selective. Currently: 9 cities remain in seller’s markets 3 cities are considered balanced 6 cities are in buyer’s markets Even with these shifts, the market remains relatively calm and stable compared to the volatility we continue to see in the broader economy and financial markets. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the ultra-low rates buyers became accustomed to several years ago, but steady inventory growth is helping improve buyers' opportunities in many areas. For sellers, pricing strategy and presentation remain critical. Well-prepared homes in desirable locations are still attracting strong interest, especially when priced appropriately for today’s market conditions. Buyers, however, are taking more time, negotiating more carefully, and paying close attention to overall value. For buyers, this continues to create opportunities that were difficult to find over the past few years. While competition still exists in certain price points and communities, there is gradually more room for negotiation, inspection considerations, and seller concessions in portions of the market. Overall, the Greater Phoenix market remains remarkably balanced and healthy, with small week-to-week movements rather than dramatic swings. As we head toward summer, all eyes will remain on inventory levels, buyer demand, and mortgage rate movements to see whether this gradual shift toward buyers continues. Markets on Edge: Oil, Inflation & Mortgage Rates Continue to Shape Housing Trends Oil prices, inflation fears, and mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated until the US/Iran conflict ends. But even today, mortgage rates are nearly a half-point lower than they were at the same time last year, and many markets are significantly more buyer-friendly. Rising Oil Prices Push Inflation Higher. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.7% in March, driven largely by a surge in gas prices tied to Middle East tensions, lifting the annual rate to 3.5%. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE (which excludes food and energy), increased at a more moderate 0.3%, with the annual rate at 3.2%. Inflation is still running above target, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach. It also helps explain why some policymakers are in no rush to cut rates as they weigh mixed signals across the economy. ADP: Modest job growth in April. ADP’s monthly employment report showed that private employers added 109K jobs in April. That was roughly in line with Wall Street estimates, but was lower than the 150K-160K implied by ADP’s own weekly “NER Pulse” data. The majority of the job growth came from the Education/Health Services sector (+61K). Looking at the size of companies hiring, the majority came from Small Establishments (+65K). Annual wage growth for “Job Stayers” slowed slightly to 4.4%. Annual wage growth for “Job Changers” was steady at 6.6%. “Because small firms are driving the overall job growth, the types of jobs we’re seeing are actually not full-time jobs. Small firm jobs growth comes with more part-time jobs, lower-paid jobs, and people are working less [hours] in these new jobs…so we’re replacing jobs lost, but we’re replacing them with lower-paid, fewer-hours jobs.” — Nela Richardson, ADP’s Chief Economist, speaking on CNBC Bond and Mortgage Market The bond market is watching the Middle East and oil prices, not domestic jobs data or real estate transaction volumes. If it looks like the US/Iran war could be coming to an end, bond prices rally (which mathematically lowers yields) because of lower expected inflation. In any case, the market is still not pricing in any rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 — even with the new guy (Kevin Warsh) in charge. Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is currently 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market. June 17 FOMC Meeting: This will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as the new Fed Chairman. 94% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 95% last week). That leaves only a 6% chance that rates will be 25 basis points lower than current levels. July 29 FOMC Meeting: 88% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 89% last week). A 12% probability that rates will be 25 basis points lower than current (implying a rate cut at either the June 17 or July 29 meetings, but not at both). No rate cut in 2026? If I look way out to the last FOMC meeting of the year (Dec 9), the market is pricing in a 72% probability (was 80% last week) that the Fed Funds Rate will be exactly where it is today. In other words, the market continues to price in NO rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. Weather ☀️ Triple-digit temperatures are here! Apache Junction is heating up this week with highs topping 100° before settling into the upper 90s. No matter the temps, it’s always a great week to live in Arizona. 🌵 #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad #ApacheJunctionAZ #ArizonaWeather #LivingInArizona #ArizonaRealEstate

A Subtle Shift in the Phoenix, Arizona Housing Market: What This Week’s CMI Data Reveals For Buyers March was an eventful month as rates spiked from 5.99% to 6.64% per Mortgage News Daily. The spike was a direct response to uncertainty over the Iran war and its effect on U.S. inflation. Once the unemployment report was released, showing an improvement from 4.4% to 4.3%, rates began drifting back down. By the time the CPI inflation was released at 3.3%, up from 2.4%, it had already been priced into the rates, so there was little effect. As of mid-April, rates were back to 6.3% and trending down. The rate disruption led to a decline in buyer contract activity; in March, they were up 10%, and in April, they were up just 1%. Contracts could begin to return as rates fall below 6.25%. The lesson buyers have learned over the past 3 years of volatile mortgage rates is patience. Rates have a recent history of knee-jerk spikes in times of unexpected uncertainty (e.g., tariffs, trade through the Strait of Hormuz), followed by declines after the shock wears off. The increase in supply seen in January and February stalled in March and has stalled again in April. In February, supply was up 9% over last year. In March, supply was only up 4.8%, and in April, it is barely up 0.2% thus far. With both contract and listing activity stalled, they have canceled each other out, thus maintaining the status quo for home prices. While the conflict with Iran is not settled, the markets are responding as if they expect it to be a short-term influence on inflation. If that proves to be true, then there will be little impact on home values as they typically take 3-6 months to respond to a prolonged disturbance in the force. Since September 2022, the median mortgage rate is 6.89%. This puts the current 6.3% mortgage rate well below the 3.5% average over the last 3.5 years. For Sellers Sellers have the least advantage in the condominium market under $300K, as supply is up 20% over last year and contracts in escrow are up only 13%. April sold prices are down 9.5% from last year in this segment, with the median size at 1,048 sq ft. Historically, prices for this segment are similar to where they were 5 years ago, around May 2021. Conversely, single-family homes between 1,200 and 2,400 sq ft have shown the most stability in prices over the past 3 years, with minimal fluctuation. The median-sized single-family home sold in Greater Phoenix this year is 2,003 sq ft, which is 318 sq ft larger than the 2001 median of 1,685 sq ft. Typical home sizes vary by city, as reflected in their median sale prices. For example, the 2026 median-sized home sold in the city of Phoenix is 1,798 sqft, and the median price is $482K. Compare that to newer cities like Chandler, where the median size is 2,061 sq ft at $558K, and Queen Creek, with a median size of 2,659 sq ft at $688K. Below are the median sales prices by year for the following single-family size ranges in Greater Phoenix. They show that while the Valley has endured a buyer’s market since November 2024, price trends are within 1% of last year’s prices for the majority of common-sized homes: Market in a Minute Housing • Buyer momentum is gradually building — 7 cities are now trending in favor of buyers as rates settle in the low 6% range (≈6.2%–6.4%) after recent volatility • Seller advantage continues to soften — Inventory is slowly rising while demand remains muted, creating more balanced conditions in parts of the market • Higher rates are keeping the market measured — With inflation around ~3.3%, borrowing costs remain elevated, leading to steady but cautious buyer activity Economy • Rates eased, but volatility remains — Mortgage rates are holding in the low 6% range, with fluctuations driven by global and economic uncertainty • Inflation proving sticky — Rising energy costs continue to put pressure on inflation, which may delay potential Fed rate cuts • Consumer confidence trending lower — Ongoing cost pressures are impacting sentiment, which could slow overall economic activity I truly appreciate you being here and staying informed. Whether you’re thinking about a move, buying or selling, or planning a relocation to or from Arizona, don’t hesitate to reach out—I’m always happy to help–Brad 602-679-1025 brad@homeselleraz.com

Quiet Strength: Phoenix Real Estate Remains Steady Amid Uncertainty While headlines continue to highlight economic uncertainty, the Greater Phoenix housing market is telling a very different story—one of consistency, balance, and subtle movement. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen very little change in overall market direction. The number of cities trending in favor of buyers remains at six, unchanged from the prior two weeks. Meanwhile, 12 cities are still leaning toward sellers, keeping the overall single-family detached market gently in favor of sellers. That said, the shifts we are seeing continue to follow familiar patterns. Goodyear, Tempe, Maricopa, and Fountain Hills are once again showing the strongest momentum toward sellers, indicating continued demand and competitive conditions in those areas. On the flip side, Cave Creek and Gilbert are continuing to shift in favor of buyers, offering a bit more opportunity and negotiating room. The Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* also reflects this steady pace. The average CMI rose 3.3% this past week—slightly stronger than last week’s 2.8% increase—showing modest but continued improvement for sellers without any dramatic swings. Breaking it down further: 10 cities are currently in a seller’s market 2 cities are balanced 6 cities are in a buyer’s market It’s worth noting that even within the seller’s markets, not all are created equal. Three of those ten are considered weak seller’s markets, with CMIs below 120—meaning buyers may still find opportunities even in areas that technically favor sellers. The big picture? Not much has changed—and that’s actually a good thing. In a time when financial markets, global events, and economic indicators can feel unpredictable, the Greater Phoenix housing market remains stable. Inventory, demand, and pricing are all moving in a measured, manageable way. For buyers, that means opportunities still exist—especially in select cities where conditions are softening. For sellers, it means the market remains supportive, but strategy, pricing, and presentation matter more than ever. In many ways, our local real estate market continues to be exactly what people are looking for right now: steady, reliable, and calm amid everything else. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. A Mixed Economic Picture: Strong Jobs Report, But Lingering Concerns Threats, rescue missions, an ultimatum, and a ceasefire. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile and unpredictable. But back home, a stronger-than-expected jobs report contrasted with other signs of a cooling labor market.   Strong Jobs Report, but Questions Remain   March job growth came in well above estimates, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 178,000 jobs, well above forecasts of just 60,000. The unemployment rate also edged down from 4.4% to 4.3%. What’s the bottom line? At first glance, this looks like a strong report. But other data suggest a more mixed picture. Reports from ADP and Revelio Labs showed smaller job gains (62,000 and 19,400, respectively), well below the BLS figure. Revisions have also made the BLS data more volatile. For example, January job gains were revised higher, while February showed a larger loss. Over the past year, monthly results have frequently swung between gains and losses. All in all, the headline number doesn’t tell the whole story. ADP Jobs Data Sends Mixed Signals Looking closer at private-sector hiring, ADP data adds more context on where growth is occurring. Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, beating forecasts of 40,000. But the headline masks important differences across company size and sector. All the job growth came from small businesses, which added 85,000 positions. In contrast, medium-sized companies cut 20,000 jobs, and large employers trimmed 4,000. What’s the bottom line? According to ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson, overall hiring is steady but concentrated in a few areas. Much of the growth is coming from education and health services, industries that tend to be more stable and less sensitive to economic shifts. At the same time, the payoff for switching jobs is shrinking. Workers who change jobs are still seeing faster wage growth (6.6%) than those who stay put (4.5%), but the gap has narrowed compared to recent years. In other words, the job market is becoming less competitive overall. Bond and Mortgage Market Since peaking around 6.65% on March 27, average 30-year mortgage rates have been trending lower. Now, with the 2-week ceasefire supposedly in place, and ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz again, that downtrend in mortgage rates could continue. Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is currently 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market. • April 29 FOMC Meeting: 98% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 97% last week). And…a 2% probability (was 3% a week ago) that the Fed will raise rates 25 basis points. • June 17 FOMC Meeting: 94% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (unchanged from last week). So, no rate cut at either the April or June meeting. • No rate cut in 2026? If I look way out to the last FOMC meeting of the year (Dec 9), the market is pricing in a 73% probability (same as last week) that the Fed Funds Rate will be exactly where it is today. In other words, the market continues to price in NO rate cuts for the entirety of 2026. There is only a 14% probability that rates will be 25 basis points below current levels, and a 12% probability that they will be 25 basis points above current levels. The Market in a Minute Housing: The overall market continues to lean gently in favor of sellers, with little change week over week 12 cities favor sellers while 6 favor buyers, showing steady and balanced conditions across the Valley Some seller markets remain weak (CMI under 120), creating opportunities for buyers in select areas Economy: Job growth came in stronger than expected, but hiring is concentrated in more stable sectors like education and healthcare The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the wage gap between job switchers and stayers continuing to narrow Mortgage rates have been trending slightly downward, while markets still expect no Fed rate cuts through the remainder of 2026 Relocating to or from Arizona? I would love to help. Reach out to Brad at 602-679-1025 Have a great week!

Phoenix, Arizona Market Update: Sellers Regain Momentum Despite Rate Pressure What the Numbers Are Telling Us   March brought a noticeable jump in activity compared to February, but when you dig a little deeper, the story becomes more nuanced. Closed transactions reached 7,268, up slightly from last year and significantly higher than February. At first glance, that looks like strong momentum—but March also had more working days, giving it a built-in advantage. When adjusted for that, closings per day actually dipped slightly year over year.   Where things really stand out is the split between new homes and resale homes: The resale market is holding steady and showing resilience New construction continues to lag—both in volume and pricing   This isn’t a short-term shift. We’ve now seen this trend play out consistently for months.   New Homes vs. Resales – A Clear Divide   New home sales made up just 17.1% of the market, the lowest share we’ve seen since mid-2022. That’s a pretty clear signal that buyers are leaning toward existing homes right now.   Pricing tells a similar story: New home median price: down 4.5% year over year Resale median price: down just 1.1% year over year   Even month-to-month, resale pricing showed some strength, while new builds softened again.   Bottom line —resale homes are outperforming new construction in this market, both in demand and pricing stability.   Pricing Trends & Market Segments   The overall median price came in at $481,370, slightly down from last year but up from February.   It’s also important to note: The top end of the market continues to outperform, both in pricing and activity Median prices don’t fully reflect that strength, since they’re less influenced by luxury sales   So while headlines may suggest softening, the reality depends heavily on price point and location.   Market Direction (Cromford Market Index* Update)   Looking at the Cromford® Market Index 9 CMI) trends: 10 cities are in seller’s markets (though 3 are considered weak) 2 cities are balanced 6 cities favor buyers   Cities like Goodyear, Tempe, Maricopa, and Fountain Hills saw the biggest shifts toward sellers, while Cave Creek and Gilbert continue to lean toward buyers.   Overall, the market is still gently favoring sellers, with the average CMI improving 2.8% week over week.   The Takeaway   This market isn’t one-size-fits-all right now. Resale homes are carrying the market New construction is feeling pressure Higher-end homes continue to outperform Seller advantage exists—but it’s not as strong or consistent across all areas   For buyers,  there are opportunities—especially with new builds and in select cities.   For sellers,  strategy and pricing matter more than ever. The homes that are positioned correctly are still moving.   If you’re thinking about making a move—or just want to understand how this impacts your specific situation—Brad is always happy to connect. Have a great week ahead! *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market A Mixed Economic Picture: Strong Jobs Report, But Lingering Concerns Job growth remained weak, but the market is still focused on the potential inflationary impact of the US/Iran conflict. Mortgage rates have eased recently, but they’re still higher than they were pre-war.   Before we begin…   On February 27, Mortgage News Daily reported average 30-year mortgage rates at 5.99%. The US/Iran conflict started on February 28. These dates are important because: 1) oil prices, US treasury yields, and mortgage rates moved up dramatically in March, so 2) any economic and real estate data for January and February is pre-war.   Some recent relief for mortgage rates   A combination of weak consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell eased market concerns that the Fed might actually RAISE rates at their April 29 meeting. Average 30-yr mortgage rates dropped from 6.64% on 3/27 to 6.45% on 4/1.   BLS Jobs Report (March 2026)   March job growth came in well above expectations, with 178,000 jobs added, versus the 60,000 forecast. January and February payrolls were revised slightly lower, while the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.4% to 4.3%. ADP employment report was a slight beat.  Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, above Wall Street expectations of around 40,000. But, as I’ve said before, anything less than 100K is basically no job growth for a nation our size. Moreover, most of the growth came from one sector: education/health services. ADP itself warned in a previous report that many of these jobs are low-paying. Bond and Mortgage Market   The rise in oil prices and the attendant risk of a reacceleration in inflation had markets worried that Fed members might vote to RAISE rates at the next FOMC meeting.   But over the last few days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the Fed can and should “look through” potentially short-term oil price movements. We also had a very weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, as well as lackluster job openings (JOLTS) and job growth (ADP) data.   No rate hike?  That’s reassuring. But the market is still not pricing in any rate cuts in 2026 — despite consistently weak jobs growth data.   Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is currently 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   • April 29 FOMC Meeting:  97% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 94% last week). And…a 3% probability (was 6% a week ago) that the Fed will  raise  rates 25 basis points. • June 17 FOMC Meeting:  94% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (unchanged from last week). So, no rate cut at either the April or June meeting. • No rate cut in 2026?  If I look way out to the last FOMC meeting of the year (Dec 9), the market is pricing in a 73% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be exactly where it is today. In other words, the market continues to price in NO rate cuts for the entirety of 2026. There is only a 22% probability that rates will be 25 basis points below the current. 🌤️ Weekly Weather Snapshot — Gilbert, AZ Monday (6th): Sunny — ~91° / 71° ☀️ Tuesday (7th): Mostly sunny — ~90° / 68° ☀️ Wednesday (8th): Sunny — ~92° / 70° ☀️ Thursday (9th): Sunny — ~88° / 66° ☀️ Friday (10th): Sunny — ~84° / 64° ☀️ Saturday (11th): Slight chance of showers — ~77° / 61° 🌤️🌧️ Sunday (12th): Partly sunny — ~77° / 60° ⛅

Why Sellers Are Adjusting—and Buyers Are Paying Attention in Phoenix, AZ   The number of cities moving in a buyer-friendly direction increased from 9 to 13 this past week, while only 5 cities are now trending in favor of sellers. The average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* fell 3.6%, a much sharper decline than last week’s modest -0.3% move. The prior seller-leaning trend has officially flipped, with momentum now favoring buyers.   Glendale posted the strongest move toward sellers at +4%, while Fountain Hills saw a significant 20% shift toward buyers—though it still remains firmly a seller’s market. Goodyear, Scottsdale, Queen Creek, Paradise Valley, and Cave Creek each saw a shift of 7% or more in favor of buyers.   Current market balance: 9 seller’s markets 3 balanced markets 6 buyer’s markets   January 2026 Maricopa County Sales Snapshot   Affidavits of Value for January have now been analyzed, and here’s what stood out: 4,829 total closings, down 4.7% YoY and 20.8% from December 885 new-home closings, down 22.2% YoY and 26.6% month-over-month 3,944 resale closings, up 0.4% YoY but down 19.4% from December Median Sales Prices   Overall median: $470,000 (-3.1% YoY, -4.0% MoM) New homes: $536,490 (-0.5% YoY, -0.5% MoM) Resale homes: $450,000 (-2.2% YoY, -4.3% MoM)   January 2026 had 20 working days, giving it a 5% disadvantage compared to January 2025 and a 10% disadvantagecompared to December 2025. When adjusted for this, the year-over-year drop in total closings is essentially flat.   What This Means   The real story is the divergence between resale and new-home activity. Resales performed relatively well, with closings per working day up meaningfully compared to last January—despite only a modest 0.4% headline increase.   New homes, however, had a very weak month. 885 closings is the lowest January total in nearly 10 years, and new-home market share fell to 18.3%, the lowest level since July 2022.   While new-home median prices appear relatively stable, they do not reflect substantial builder incentives, which often sit below the headline price. Median pricing also skews toward the low- and mid-range of the market and does not benefit from strength in luxury price points above $2M.   Bottom line: The resale market is holding up reasonably well given current conditions, though sellers are conceding slightly on price. The new-home market has a clear volume problem, making this a challenging start to 2026 for builders. Economic Update: Mixed Signals, Steady Ground   The economy continues to send mixed messages as we move deeper into the first quarter. Some data points suggest slowing momentum, while others point to continued resilience. For buyers, sellers, and anyone watching interest rates closely, this push-and-pull matters.   Interest Rates & the Fed The Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see mode. Inflation has cooled meaningfully from its peak, but it hasn’t yet settled comfortably into the Fed’s target range. As a result, policymakers are signaling patience rather than urgency. Markets are still pricing in potential rate cuts later this year, but those expectations continue to shift week to week based on incoming data.   For housing, this means mortgage rates are likely to remain range-bound for now. We’re not seeing a sharp drop, but we’re also not seeing a breakout to the upside—something that has helped keep buyer demand alive despite affordability challenges.   Jobs & Consumer Spending The labor market remains a bright spot, though it is gradually losing steam. Job growth is slowing, layoffs remain concentrated in specific sectors, and wage growth is moderating. This is a healthy development from the Fed’s perspective, as it reduces inflationary pressures without signaling a recession.   Consumers are still spending, but more selectively. Discretionary purchases are slowing, while spending on necessities remains strong. This shift is showing up in retail data and reinforces the idea that households are becoming more price-conscious.   Economic Growth Recent GDP data show the economy is still expanding, but at a more sustainable pace. Strong consumer spending and business investment continue to support growth, even as higher interest rates act as a brake on growth. Importantly, there are no widespread signs of economic contraction—just normalization after several years of extremes.   What This Means for Housing A slowing but stable economy is actually a constructive backdrop for real estate. It supports employment, keeps forced selling low, and gives the Fed room to eventually ease policy. At the same time, it encourages buyers and sellers to be more realistic on pricing and terms.   For buyers, this environment rewards patience, preparation, and negotiation. For sellers, it underscores the importance of pricing correctly and understanding that today’s market is driven by value—not urgency.   Bottom Line The economy isn’t overheating, and it isn’t rolling over. It’s recalibrating. That creates a market where informed decisions matter more than timing headlines—and where opportunities still exist for those who understand the bigger picture. Economy Inflation continues to cool, allowing the Fed to stay patient while avoiding pressure to hike rates further. Job growth is slowing but remains healthy, supporting consumer confidence without overheating the economy. Economic growth is moderating to a more sustainable pace, reducing recession risk in the near term. Housing Market Buyer leverage is improving as more cities shift toward buyer or balanced conditions. Sellers are adjusting prices modestly, especially in resale homes, while activity remains steady. New-home sales volume is struggling, with incentives increasing to attract buyers. I truly appreciate your continued referrals — they mean the world to me. If you’re thinking about relocating to Arizona or selling your home, let’s connect and make your next move a success.   Brad Daniels | East Valley Real Estate Team 📞 (602) 679-1025 | 🌐 www.RelocateToAZ.com

A Market in Transition: Supply, Demand, and Rates Tell a More Complex Story in Phoenix, Arizona. The number of cities moving in a buyer-friendly direction has increased from 6 to 9 since last week, now matching the number of cities trending in favor of sellers. That balance alone tells us the market is finding its footing again.   The average Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* slipped 0.3%, essentially flat and a notable shift from last week’s +2.1% move toward sellers. In short, the recent seller momentum has faded, and the overall market is drifting slightly downward again. What’s driving the shifts? The strongest moves in favor of sellers are occurring in large, central markets—Phoenix, Mesa, and Glendale. Meanwhile, outlying areas are leaning more buyer-friendly, including Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Queen Creek, which are among the most buyer-favored markets right now. Paradise Valley continues to move toward buyers due to a meaningful increase in supply, though demand remains strong enough to keep it in the balanced zone (CMI between 90–110). Scottsdale remains a seller’s market but has entered a mild weakening trend.   Year-Over-Year Comparison (ARMLS – All areas & property types | January 25, 2026 vs. January 25, 2025)   Supply – Up Active listings: +9.7% (24,318 vs. 22,169) Average active $/SF: +2.0% ($367.14 vs. $360.10) Cromford® Supply Index: +11.0% (84.4 → 93.7) Demand – Also Up Pending listings: +3.0% (4,172 vs. 4,052) UCB / CCBS listings: +9.4% (3,083 vs. 2,817) Pending $/SF: –3.0% ($328.87 vs. $339.16) Closed sales YTD: +4.9% (3,266 vs. 3,112) Cromford® Demand Index: +8.9% (76.5 → 83.3) Pricing – Mixed Average closed $/SF: +1.0% ($309.59 → $312.72) Median sales price: –1.4% ($451,000 → $444,900) Market Balance Contract ratio: –3.7% (31.0 → 29.8) Days of inventory: 134 days, up 6.3% year-over-year Cromford® Market Index: 88.9, down 1.9% from 90.6   The Big Picture Overall, the market looks remarkably similar to this time last year, especially in pricing. The major difference? Mortgage rates. The typical 30-year fixed rate is now around 6.19%, down from 7.06% a year ago—a drop of 87 basis points (about 12.3%).   If interest rates alone dictated market behavior, we’d expect a much bigger shift than what we’re seeing. The reality, as always, is more nuanced—inventory levels, pricing psychology, location, and buyer behavior are all playing meaningful roles.   Bottom line: This remains a market where strategy matters, and hyper-local insight makes all the difference. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Market in a Minute Housing The market is rebalancing. Buyer-friendly cities now match seller-friendly cities (9 each), with momentum leveling out after last week’s seller surge. Supply and demand are both rising—but prices are steady. Listings and pendings are up year over year, while prices remain mostly flat, signaling a more negotiated market. Location matters more than ever. Central areas like Phoenix, Mesa, and Glendale favor sellers, while outlying markets are tilting toward buyers. Economy Fed holds rates steady. Inflation and employment remain firm, keeping the Fed cautious. Any future rate cuts will take time and broad agreement. Strong GDP, soft jobs. Economic growth is solid, driven by consumer spending, but job creation remains weak—raising questions about sustainability. Rates stay stable. Mortgage rates are holding near 6.10%, with markets expecting no cuts through at least March and possibly April. This weeks Weather This week in Gilbert is shaping up beautifully — mild mornings, warm afternoons, and plenty of sunshine. 🌤️ With highs hovering in the upper 70s to low 80s and comfortable evenings, it’s the kind of Arizona winter weather we all love. Perfect conditions to get outside, enjoy the Valley, and take in the Waste Management Open — whether you’re on the course, at the 16th hole, or watching from afar. No matter the temps, it’s always a great week to live in Arizona. 🌵☀️ Brad Daniels, Realtor® | My Home Group www.RelocateToAZ.com | (602) 679-1025

Buying in 2026: Where Opportunity Is Opening in Phoenix, Arizona Buyers: Buying season has begun in Greater Phoenix, and it’s kicking off with a wave of fresh new listings. In a typical year, January is the most popular month for luxury and retirement community listings to hit the market, while March tends to be the peak month for the mainstream. Within the first 3-4 weeks of the year, these new listings are met with buyer demand that escalates dramatically in January, then tapers off before peaking in April or May.   New listings are coming in weaker than this time last year, but only down 2.5%. That’s still stronger than the 5-year period from 2020-2024, which had the lowest January listings counts in 25 years. Listings under $300K are seeing a significant increase in new supply, up 15% over last year, and with nearly 3,800 active listings at this writing, comprising 18% of supply. This is the most affordable range in Greater Phoenix, where sales prices are down 2-3% from last year and are continuing to decline. It comprises mostly condos and mobile homes in central cities such as Phoenix and Mesa, and mostly single-family homes in the outskirts, like Pinal County. All other new listing counts are in line with last year or weaker, which is contributing to a more balanced state between supply and demand as we begin 2026.   A $300K purchase with FHA is approximately $1,860/month before taxes and possible HOA. Mortgage payments on properties under $300K can compete with rent, but not necessarily when tenants are upgrading their living space. For instance, a tenant paying $2,100 in rent for an apartment in Scottsdale cannot afford to upgrade to a single-family home in the same area for the same monthly payment. However, they may be able to purchase a similar unit in the same area, or a single-family home in an outer city like Maricopa, and commute.   This is where the affordable housing debate can get messy. Listing counts indicate that the supply of affordable homes under $300K is rising, and sales of those units are also rising (up 7%), suggesting that affordability strains are easing. However, 2025 sales over $500K were also up 7% while sales within $300K-$500K were nearly identical. If there were truly a lack of affordable homes, then supply under $300K would be rapidly declining, as it did from 2020 to 2022, where there were fewer than 500 for sale, and prices would be rising. But that’s not happening. Evidence suggests that it’s not a lack of affordable homes to purchase, but an aversion to moving out of a desirable area. Sellers: 2025 ended with total annual sales up 3.5%, equivalent to 2,351 more sales through the MLS than in 2024. Local builder reports show new home sales down nearly 6% for the year, and 2025 permits for new construction were down a significant 21%. Nationally, builder optimism about future sales is low, reportedly due to labor and lot shortages. However, some cities with high builder activity saw the largest sales increases in 2025.   By number of sales per the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office, the following cities saw the biggest jumps in closed sales last year: 1) Goodyear with 414 more sales, up 16%, median price $486K; 2) Scottsdale with 335 more sales, up 5%, median price $900K; 3) Peoria with 245 more sales, up 7%, median price $515K.   By percentage growth of sales, the following mid-sized cities saw the biggest proportional increases: 1) Waddell up 36% with 178 more sales, median price $468K; 2) Sun Lakes up 32% with 122 more sales, median price $470K; 3) Anthem up 29% with 64 more sales, median price $574K. The 2025 annual median sales price in Greater Phoenix is $451K, but it’s worth noting that half of the cities with sales growth had median prices considerably higher than that. Considering that most of 2025 operated with mortgage rates in the high-6% or low-7% range, entering 2026 with rates in the high-5% and low-6% means payments are at least 10-12% lower on the same-priced homes from a year ago. This bodes well for first-quarter sales in Greater Phoenix in 2026.   While sales are expected to increase, prices are not. Price is the last measure to move when a market shifts, and it can take up to 3-6 months to emerge. Price appreciation remains stagnant in the middle price ranges, rising in upper ranges, and declining under $400K. Greater Phoenix is pulling out of a buyer’s market and edging towards a balanced state, but a seller’s market isn’t on the horizon. Mortgage Markets at a Crossroads: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Spring Outlook December and January are two of the slowest months of the year for home sales. But the spring selling season is around the corner (things really start perking up in March), and if mortgage rates can stay in the low 6% range, activity levels should surge.  Let’s take a look at what happened this past week.   Trump talked about housing affordability in Davos. An ultra-exclusive conference of billionaires, politicians, NGOs, and celebrities seemed an odd place for President Trump to discuss his plans to reinvigorate the American Dream of homeownership. Or perhaps it’s brilliant, since there was no shortage of big-bank and big-investor CEOs in Switzerland, and President Trump wants more/cheaper lending for would-be buyers and to keep BlackRock from buying every home on your block.   Here’s the thing: he’s not actually banning BlackRock from buying homes; he’s just limiting the ability of big institutions to get access to conventional lending. Essentially, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been told to stop guaranteeing mortgages for SFH purchases made by large institutional investors. But…BlackRock can still buy SFHs with all cash, and the definition of a large institutional investor has yet to be set.   Here’s what the President actually said: “Homes are built for people, not for corporations, and America will not become a nation of renters. That’s why I have signed an executive order banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. It’s just not fair to the public. They’re not — they’re not able to buy a house.” “The house values have gone up tremendously, and [homeowners] have become wealthy…every time you make it more and more and more affordable for somebody to buy a house cheaply, you’re actually hurting the value of those houses, obviously…I don’t want to do anything that would hurt the value of people's homes. [People] who for the first time in their lives are walking around…very proud that their house is worth $500K, $600K, $700K. Now, if I wanted to really crush the housing market, I could do that so fast, and people could buy houses, but you would destroy a lot of people who already have houses.”   Consumer Inflation in Line with Forecasts  Consumer prices rose 0.3% in December and 2.7% year over year, with the annual rate unchanged from the prior report. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and held steady at 2.6% annually – its lowest level since early 2021. These readings were mostly in line with analysts’ expectations.   Shelter costs remain a major driver of inflation, accounting for roughly 35% of headline CPI and 44% of core CPI. Given this heavy weighting, even modest changes can meaningfully affect overall inflation. Shelter prices edged higher in December, contributing to the monthly increase. It’s going to be tough for us to make much progress on inflation over the next couple of months. But the market seems to know that already, with very little hope of a Fed rate cut at the next two FOMC meetings.   Bond and Mortgage Market   With inflation (PCE) remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the unemployment rate still looking (superficially) low, and GDP running at >4% annually, there is almost zero chance that the Fed votes to cut rates at either the January 28 or March 18 FOMC meetings.   What could change that?  One thing could be the BLS’s reworking of the job growth statistics using a new and improved birth/death model. This should result in much lower preliminary job numbers (that require fewer revisions), allowing the markets to react to the ‘real’ monthly jobs growth, rather than ‘imaginary’ jobs growth.   Note:  After the rate cut on Dec 10, the Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   January 28 FOMC Meeting: 95% probability that the Fed does nothing (unchanged from last week); only a 5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. March 18 FOMC Meeting: 82% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 78% a week ago). In other words, no cut at either the January or March FOMC meetings. Only an 18% probability that rates are 25 bps below current (was 22% last week), which would imply a 25 bps rate cut at the March 18 meeting. Weather Thank you for reading my blog — I truly appreciate it. If you’re considering relocating to or from Arizona, I’d love the opportunity to help. Every move is unique, and I’m always happy to answer questions, share insights, or help you plan your next step. Brad Daniels | 602-679-1025| RelocateToAz.com

Listed by: Sasha Rahban with Douglas Elliman of California Real Estate Agent Who Grew Up in Real-Life ‘Fresh Prince of Bel-Air’ Mansion Lists $30 Million Home for First Time in 50 Years. The iconic Los Angeles mansion that took center stage in Will Smith 's hit sitcom "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" is available to buy for the first time in 50 years, to the tune of $29.5 million—having been listed by a real estate agent who was "born and raised" inside the home. For the last five decades, the property has been owned by the same family, who purchased it in 1978, 12 years before they were approached by producers seeking a dwelling to serve as the Banks family's home in "The Fresh Prince." The sitcom, which debuted in 1990 and starred Smith in the lead role, alongside Alfonso Ribeiro, Janet Hubert, and James Avery, focused on a young man's move from West Philadelphia to the tony community of Bel-Air , where he moved in with his wealthy relatives—putting the family firmly in the public eye. Fun Fact: the home itself is not located in Bel-Air, but rather 15 minutes down the road in Brentwood , where it was originally built in 1937. Bedrooms Bedrooms: 6 Bathrooms Total Bathrooms: 8 Full Bathrooms: 7 1/2 Bathrooms: 1 Other Rooms Bar Basement Breakfast Breakfast Area Family Room Formal Entry Great Room Guest-Maids Quarters In-Law Suite Jack And Jill Powder Primary Bedroom Separate Family Room Study/Office Library/Study Den Dining Room Dining Area Patio Open Living Room Walk-In Closet Appliances Laundry Features: Laundry Area, Inside, Room Heating and Cooling Cooling Features: Central Fireplace Features: Den, Library Heating Features: Central Heating: Yes Number Of Fireplaces: 2 Interior Features Interior Amenities: Primary Suite, Primary Bedroom, Walk-In Closet, Multi-Level Bedroom, 2 Primary Baths, Bidet, Double Vanity(S), Dual Entry (Jack & Jill) Bath, Powder Room, Shower And Tub, Steam Shower, Tub With Jets Furnished Description: Unfurnished Flooring: Wood, Tile, Carpet Kitchen and Dining Dining Area Description: Breakfast Area, Breakfast Counter / Bar, Breakfast Room, Dining Area, Family Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, In Kitchen, Kitchen Island Exterior Pool and Spa Pool Features: Waterfall, In-Ground, Heated With Gas, Heated Spa Features: Bath Tub, Heated With Gas, In-Ground Spa: Yes Land Info Lot Description: Back Yard, Automatic Gate, Front Yard, Value In Land, Street Lighting, Lawn Lot Size Acres: 0.8839 Lot Size Source: Assessor Lot Size Square Feet: 38510 Garage and Parking Garage Spaces: 3 Parking Features: Covered Parking, Driveway, Driveway - Combination, Driveway Gate, Garage - 3 Car, On Street, Parking For Guests, Private Home Features View: Pool, Trees/Woods, Tree Top Other Equipment: Alarm System, Antenna, Built-Ins, Cable, Garbage Disposal, Freezer, Electric Dryer Hookup, Dryer, Dishwasher, Ice Maker, Washer, Range/Oven, Refrigerator Security Features: Carbon Monoxide Detector(S), Automatic Gate, Exterior Security Lights, Fire And Smoke Detection System, Gated, Smoke Detection

Seller Momentum Softens as More Cities in the Phoenix Area Tip Toward Buyers, and that has doubled since last week. Fountain Hills and Cave Creek have now joined Avondale and Paradise Valley, leaving 14 cities still trending in favor of sellers. Sellers can take some comfort in the fact that all four cities shifting toward buyers are relatively small markets. Brad Daniels, Realtor. My Home Group The average Cromford Market Index (CMI)* is currently up 5.8% month over month, which is positive, though notably weaker than the 8.1% increase reported last week. While the overall trend still favors sellers, momentum has softened over the past 21 days and is beginning to look a bit wobbly.   The largest seller-side gains were seen in Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, Gilbert, Peoria, and Surprise.   At the market-balance level, we continue to see: 10 cities in a seller’s market 2 balanced 6 in a buyer’s market   This breakdown is unchanged from last week; however, Peoria moved from balanced into a seller’s market, while Paradise Valley shifted from a seller’s market to balanced. Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast of the market balance. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Lower Rates, Softer Inflation, and a Steady Fed: What the Numbers Are Saying There were many encouraging signs for the housing market this week: lower mortgage rates are boosting demand for new and existing homes, December CPI (inflation) came in lower than expected, and President Trump unveiled several plans to improve affordability.   Mortgage rates remained in the low 6% range. Average 30-year mortgage rates have been below 6.25% for a month, and below 6.50% for nearly 5 months. That’s giving would-be buyers the time they need to locate, inspect, and negotiate on their next home. [Freddie Mac]   December “core” CPI came in lower than expected. “Core” CPI (inflation) rose +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY in December 2025 (lower than the +2.7% YoY expected). [BLS] Bond and Mortgage Market After President Trump instructed the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) to buy (over time) up to $200B in Mortgage Backed Securities, average 30-year mortgage rates have moved into the (very) low 6% range. Despite this, market expectations are that the Fed will NOT cut rates at either of the next two meetings.   Note: After the rate cut on Dec 10, the Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   January 28 FOMC Meeting: 95% probability that the Fed does nothing (was 88% last week); only a 5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. March 18 FOMC Meeting: 78% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 59% a week ago). In other words, no cut at either the January or March FOMC meetings. Only a 22% probability that rates are 25 bps below current (was 41% last week), which would imply a 25 bps rate cut at the March 18 meeting. Just a friendly reminder  😉 Many people still think you need a 20% down payment to buy a home, but that’s not true - especially for first-time buyers. In 2025, the median down payment for first-time buyers was just 10%, and there are programs that let you put down as little as 0% to 3%.  If you would like to review your down payment options and how they relate to your monthly payment, please don’t hesitate to reach out.  Market in a Minute Housing Pricing cooled in early January after an unsustainable December bump. Average sales price per square foot fell 2.2% month over month to $300.60, largely driven by a shift toward more lower-priced homes closing, rather than broad price weakness across the market. Short-term softness is possible, but pricing remains relatively stable. Pending prices are slightly lower than last month, suggesting modest near-term pressure, while distress levels have increased from December but remain historically low compared to long-term averages. Demand is improving as rates stabilize, setting the tone for the first half of the year. With mortgage rates around 6.04%, buyer activity is up versus last year, supply is rising seasonally, and the market continues to lean slightly toward buyers—though many areas are moving back toward balance or seller conditions. Economy Inflation is cooling: December core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, coming in below expectations and reinforcing the disinflation trend. The Fed remains on pause: Markets now see a 95% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the January meeting, signaling confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction. Rate-cut expectations are dialing back: Odds of a March rate cut have dropped sharply, suggesting policymakers are prioritizing stability over moving too quickly. ☀️ This week's weather ☔️ Thank you for reading my blog — I truly appreciate it. If you’re considering relocating to or from Arizona, I’d love the opportunity to help. Every move is unique, and I’m always happy to answer questions, share insights, or help you plan your next step. Brad Daniels | 602-679-1025| RelocateToAz.com

A Strong Start to 2026 for the Greater Phoenix, Arizona Housing Market.  Affidavits of value for December have taken a little longer than usual to process, but the data for Maricopa County is now complete, and it provides a clearer picture of how the market closed out the year. Brad Daniels, Realtor® My Home Group Closings: Up on Paper, Softer Beneath the Surface December recorded 6,098 closed transactions, which is: Up 5.0% year over year from 5,805 closings in December 2024 Up 16.8% month over month from November   At first glance, this appears encouraging. However, context matters. December 2025 had 22 working days, compared to 21 in December 2024 and just 18 in November. That gives December a built-in advantage—5% over last year and a sizable 22% over November.   When adjusted for working days, year-over-year growth in closings is essentially flat, and the month-over-month improvement falls short of our normal expectations. New Homes vs. Resales: A Clear Divergence The most notable shift remains between new construction and resale activity.   New home closings:  1,205 Down 13.2% year over year Up 11.1% from November   Once adjusted for the working-day advantage, new home closings are down about 21% year over year, confirming that the recent period in which new homes consistently outperformed resales is now firmly behind us.   Resale closings:  4,893 Up 10.8% year over year Up 18.3% from November   Adjusted for working days, resales were nearly 6% stronger than last December, though still slightly weaker than November on a per-day basis. Under current conditions, the resale market is holding up reasonably well. Market Balance & Cromford® Market Index* (CMI)   The average CMI rose 8.1% over the past month, a solid gain but slightly weaker than the 9.7% increase reported last week, suggesting that seller momentum has softened over the past two weeks.   10 cities remain in a seller’s market 2 cities are balanced 6 cities are in a buyer’s market   This distribution is unchanged from last week. Avondale has joined Paradise Valley in shifting toward buyers over the past month, while Gilbert, Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Goodyear, Tempe, and Queen Creek posted the strongest recent moves in favor of sellers. Goodyear appears close to transitioning into a balanced market, while Paradise Valley may do the same from the opposite direction. Importantly, supply—not demand—is driving most of the index's movement. Demand remains weaker than normal across most price ranges and has shown little improvement over the past two weeks.   Pricing: Modest Gains, Still Lagging Inflation Median prices moved slightly higher, but not enough to outpace inflation—consistent with a market that has leaned buyer-friendly for much of the past year.   Overall median price:  $489,652 Up 1.4% year over year Up 2.0% from November New home median price:  $539,087 Up 1.1% year over year Up 1.8% from November Resale median price:  $470,000 Up 2.6% year over year Up 2.2% from November   It’s also important to remember that new-home median prices reflect only top-line sales prices and do not account for builder concessions, which have been substantial. Builders continue to rely heavily on rate buy-downs and other incentives, making new home pricing appear stronger on paper than it often is in practice.   The Bottom Line The resale market is performing reasonably well given current conditions. The new home market has cooled significantly over the past few months. Supply constraints are supporting prices, but demand remains below normal. Price growth continues, but at a pace below inflation, reinforcing the broader buyer-leaning environment seen through most of the year.   We’ll be closely watching the first full week of January data to see whether any meaningful shift in direction is emerging, and will report back as trends develop.   All figures include only single-family homes and townhouse/condo properties within Maricopa County. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. A Big Week for Rates, Jobs, and Market Confidence The biggest news of the week came on Thursday afternoon, when President Trump announced he had instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The market reacted quickly and positively to the news, to say the least, and we’ll be watching closely in the weeks ahead to see whether it lowers rates further.  Let’s take a look at what else happened this past week.   A big drop in job openings   The JOLTs report for November showed that job openings fell to 7.15 million, well below expectations. Aside from September 2024 (when job openings briefly dipped to 7.10 million), this is the lowest figure we’ve seen since late 2020.   Slow job growth continues   According to ADP, private employers added 41,000 jobs in December 2025. While that was a turnaround from -29,000 in November, it’s still very low. Over the last 6 months, the average monthly job gain was just 22,000. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in December fell short of expectations. Employers added 50,000 jobs, well below the 73,000 forecast. In addition, October and November payroll figures were revised lower by a combined 76,000 jobs. The unemployment rate did tick down slightly, from 4.5% to 4.4%.   Trump wants to keep big investors out of the SFH market  As with most of President Trump’s initial pronouncements, the plan was short on details. But his goal was clear: stop giant landlords like Invitation Homes from competing with real humans trying to buy their first home. However, there are several problems with this. First, large investors such as Invitation Homes and Cerberus own only 2–3% of single-family homes nationwide, so the impact would be limited in most markets. Second, how do you define a ‘large’ property investor? More than 1,000? More than 10?   Bond and Mortgage Market Over the last few weeks, average 30-year mortgage rates fell below 6.25% and have remained there. The most recent jobs data (ADP, JOLTS) have been quite weak, but the BLS jobs report out on Friday, January 9, is always a wild card. In addition, the bond market has been rattled recently by Trump’s plan to significantly increase military spending in 2027. A lot more debt on the way? Note: After the rate cut on Dec 10, the Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   January 28 FOMC Meeting: 88% probability that the Fed does nothing; only a 12% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. March 18 FOMC Meeting: 41% probability that rates are 25 bps below current. That means a rate cut at either the January 28 (unlikely) or the March 18 (more likely) meeting, but not at both. 59% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75%. In other words, no cut at either the January or March FOMC meetings. Market in a Minute Housing Entry-level affordability is improving. Single-family homes under $700K are slightly cheaper than a year ago, and when combined with higher incomes and lower mortgage rates, they’re meaningfully more affordable than headlines suggest. The resale market is holding steady; new homes are cooling. Resale closings are modestly higher year over year, while new-home sales are down sharply, signaling builders are losing momentum and leaning heavily on incentives. Market balance varies by price and city. Most cities still favor sellers, but momentum has softened, demand remains below normal, and select areas, such as Avondale and Paradise Valley, are tilting toward buyers. Economy The labor market is clearly cooling. Job openings fell to 7.15 million (near the lowest level since 2020), and recent job growth came in well below expectations—signaling a slowing but still stable economy. Slower growth is helping financial markets. Weaker jobs data has eased inflationary pressures and supported bond markets, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve can remain patient rather than tighten further. Policy headlines are influencing confidence. Announcements about mortgage bond purchases and potential limits on large investors are moving markets in the short term, though longer-term economic stability still hinges on inflation trends, government spending, and Fed decisions. Weather Thank you for reading my blog — I truly appreciate it. If you’re considering relocating to Arizona or moving out of Arizona, I’d love the opportunity to help. Every move is unique, and I’m always happy to answer questions, share insights, or help you plan your next step.

As we kick off 2026,  it is a strong start for the Greater Phoenix, Arizona Housing Market , particularly compared to the cautious tone many of us felt heading into the final quarter of last year. Let’s break down what the numbers are telling us and what to watch as we move deeper into our winter market. The Big Picture: Supply, Demand & Momentum Using ARMLS data comparing January 1, 2026, vs. January 1, 202,5, across all areas and property types: Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS):22,248 vs. 20,007 last year (+12% YoY), but down 9.0% from the previous month Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS):24,837 vs. 22,196 last year (+12% YoY), and down 10.3% from the previous month   Supply declined steadily throughout December, finishing the year 10% lower than the end of November. That said, we still have 12% more inventory than we did at the start of 2025, meaning buyers continue to have solid options—at least for now.   Sellers Gaining Ground The market improved for most sellers during December: 16 cities moved in favor of sellers 1 city (Paradise Valley) moved down 1 city (Avondale) remained flat The Cromford Market Index* is currently up 9.7% over the past month, slightly below last week’s 10.8% but still a meaningful gain. Strongest seller momentum: Gilbert, Peoria, Queen Creek, Phoenix, Glendale, and Goodyear Current market breakdown remains unchanged: 10 cities in a seller’s market 2 balanced 6 buyer’s markets   Contract Activity & Closings Pending Listings: 3,373 vs. 3,307 last year (+2.0% YoY), but down 19% from the previous month Under Contract (Pending + CCBS + UCB): 5,782 vs. 5,496 last year (+5.2% YoY), but down 20% month over month Monthly Sales:6,374 vs. 5,576 last year (+14% YoY) and up 18% from November   Despite the holidays, December delivered 22 working days—one more than December 2024. That gave closings a 4.8% timing advantage, but with sales up 14.3%, December still counts as a clear win.   A natural side effect of strong closings? Listings under contract dropped sharply going into January. Even so, the count remains over 5% higher than the start of 2025, which is still a healthy sign.   Pricing: Steady, Not Spiky Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.:$303.80 vs. $302.98 last year (+0.3% YoY), +2.4% from the previous month Median Sales Price:$455,000 vs. $450,000 last year (+1.1% YoY), unchanged from November Luxury homes dominated closings early in December, pushing the average $/SF higher, but overall pricing growth for 2025 finished nearly flat. Median prices—less influenced by luxury sales—rose just $5,000 year over year, reinforcing stability rather than overheating.   Notably, household incomes rose faster than home prices last year, which quietly improves affordability and supports buyer confidence.   What Happens Next Matters The next few weeks will set the tone for early 2026: Will we see an intense wave of new listings, as we did early last year? Or will supply remain subdued, as it was in the final two months of 2025? Can lower interest rates—now better than almost all of 2025—translate into stronger buyer demand?   Greater Phoenix has outperformed low expectations since October, and the Cromford® Market Index is trending back toward the balanced zone (90–110).   Bottom Line Buyers: Still have choices, improving affordability, and negotiating power in select areas. Sellers: Conditions are meaningfully better than most of last year, especially in high-demand cities. Everyone: January is a pivotal month.   Overall, the outlook is positive—but the next few weeks will tell us whether this momentum holds as we move into the peak winter season.   As always, if you’d like to discuss how this data applies to your specific neighborhood or your plans for 2026, Brad is happy to dive in. Rates, Resets & Real Opportunities: What the Mortgage Market Is Signaling for 2026 Let's take a look at what we saw this past year and what we can expect going into 2026.   Mortgage Rates Close Out 2025 at Their Lowest Point of the Year   Mortgage rates ended 2025 on their most encouraging note yet, dropping to 6.15% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the final week of December. This marks the lowest rate we've seen all year and represents a significant improvement from where we started.   To put this in perspective, rates began in 2025 at around 7%, meaning borrowers are now enjoying nearly a whole percentage point in savings compared to just 12 months ago. That difference translates into real money in your pocket every month.   What Drove Rates Down?   Several positive factors came together to create this favorable environment. The Federal Reserve delivered three consecutive rate cuts in the final months of 2025 (September, October, and December), signaling confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction. While the Fed's benchmark rate doesn't directly control mortgage rates, these policy moves reflect a broader economic stabilization that benefits borrowers.   Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely follow, has been trending downward. As of the end of December, the 10-year Treasury was hovering around 4.12%, down from 4.52% a year earlier. This decline in Treasury yields created the breathing room lenders needed to offer more competitive rates to homebuyers.   Where Do Rates Stand Today?   As we kick off 2026, mortgage rates remain in this encouraging range. The average 30-year fixed rate sits around 6.15%, while 15-year fixed rates are even more attractive at approximately 5.44%. For buyers who have been watching from the sidelines, this represents one of the best opportunities we've seen in well over a year to lock in a favorable rate.   What to Expect in Early 2026 The outlook for the coming months is cautiously optimistic. Most housing economists predict rates will remain relatively stable in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout early 2026. While we're unlikely to see dramatic drops, the gradual downward trend appears sustainable as long as inflation continues to moderate and the economy maintains its current trajectory.   The key takeaway?  If you've been waiting for the "perfect" moment to buy or refinance, the market conditions we're seeing today are as favorable as they've been in quite some time. While rates may drift slightly lower over the course of the year, trying to time the market perfectly can mean missing out on great opportunities that are available right now.   The Bottom Line Lower borrowing costs combined with a more balanced housing market create genuine opportunities for buyers and those looking to refinance. With rates at their lowest point in over a year and housing inventory gradually improving, 2026 is shaping up to be a year when homeownership goals can become reality for many families who've been patiently waiting.   The Fed's 2026 Approach and What It Means for Your Mortgage After an active year of monetary policy adjustments, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more measured approach for 2026—and that's actually good news for anyone navigating the mortgage market. Let me explain why.   The Fed's Recent Actions Throughout late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times, reducing the federal funds rate by a total of 75 basis points. These cuts brought the rate down to 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting the Fed's confidence that inflation pressures are easing while the labor market remains relatively healthy.   However, Fed officials have now indicated they expect to make only one or two additional cuts in 2026, taking a more cautious "wait and see" stance. Some people might hear this and worry that it means rates won't improve—but that's not quite the whole picture.   Why Stability Is Actually Encouraging Here's the key point: the Fed's cautious approach signals a positive outlook for the economy. When the central bank is comfortable with a slowing rate cut, it indicates it is confident that inflation is under control and that emergency measures are not required. This kind of stability is precisely what creates a healthy mortgage market.'   Think of it this way—rapid, unpredictable changes in Fed policy create volatility in mortgage rates. A steady, predictable approach allows lenders to price mortgages more competitively because it provides a clearer view of where the economy is headed.   Current Rates: The Evidence We're already seeing the positive effects of this environment. Despite the Fed signaling fewer cuts ahead, mortgage rates remain near their 2025 lows, averaging 6.15%-6.25% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. This demonstrates that the mortgage market has already priced in the Fed's expected path and that stability is being rewarded with competitive rates.   The 2026 Outlook Looking ahead, most forecasters expect mortgage rates to remain in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout 2026. Organizations such as the Mortgage Bankers Association project rates averaging 6.0%-6.4%, while Fannie Mae's forecast suggests rates could approach 5.9% by year-end.   The key factor will be whether inflation continues its downward trend. If consumer prices continue to moderate toward the Fed's 2% target, there's room for rates to drift lower even without aggressive Fed cuts. Conversely, if inflation proves stickier than expected, rates could remain at current levels—but that's not necessarily bad news when you consider that today's rates are already significantly better than where we were in early 2025. The "Rate Lock" Effect Is Finally Starting to Ease—Here's Why That Matters   For the past few years, the housing market has been caught in an unusual predicament: millions of homeowners wanted to move but felt trapped by their ultra-low mortgage rates. The good news? There are signs that the "rate lock-in effect" is beginning to loosen, which could create more opportunities for both buyers and sellers in 2026.   Why the Lock Is Beginning to Loosen Several encouraging developments are making it easier for homeowners to consider selling:   1. Rates Have Improved Meaningfully. With mortgage rates now in the low-to-mid 6% range rather than the 7%+ levels we saw in early 2025, the "rate shock" of moving is less severe. A homeowner with a 3.5% rate, facing a 6.2% new mortgage, finds the math more manageable than at 7.5%. 2. Home Equity Provides a Cushion. Thanks to strong home price appreciation since 2020, many homeowners have substantial equity. This wealth can be applied as a larger down payment on the next home, reducing the loan amount and softening the impact of the higher rate. Some sellers can even afford to buy their next home outright or with a much smaller mortgage. 3. Life Doesn't Wait Forever. After several years of postponing moves, more homeowners are deciding that their life circumstances matter more than rate optimization. Families need more space, empty nesters want to downsize, and career opportunities require relocations. The survey data confirms this: while 21% of mortgage holders cite their low rate as a reason for staying put, nearly as many (19%) say they're staying simply because they like their current home—not because their rate traps them. 4. Unique Solutions Are Emerging. Creative strategies are helping bridge the rate gap. These include: Assumable mortgages on certain government-backed loans (VA, FHA, USDA) Temporary rate buydowns negotiated with sellers or builders 2-1 or 1-0 buydowns that reduce rates in the early years Hybrid ARM products offering lower initial rates The Market in a Minute Housing Inventory tightened heading into the end of the year, but buyers still have options. Active listings fell roughly 10% in December, yet total supply remains 12% higher than this time last year, keeping selection healthier than early 2025. Seller momentum improved across most of Greater Phoenix. 16 of 18 cities moved in favor of sellers during December, with the Cromford Market Index up 9.7% month over month, led by gains in Gilbert, Peoria, Queen Creek, Phoenix, Glendale, and Goodyear. Sales activity was a standout strength in closing out 2025. December closings rose 14% year over year, pushing contracts lower heading into January—but under-contract totals remain over 5% higher than a year ago, signaling underlying demand is still intact. Economy Mortgage rates have stabilized in the low-6% range, supported by calmer bond markets and lighter holiday trading. This stability — even without significant Fed action — is helping restore confidence and reduce volatility-driven hesitation. The Federal Reserve remains “on pause,” but expectations matter more than action. Bond markets are forward-looking, pricing in potential 2026 rate cuts based on inflation and employment trends that continue to influence mortgage rates. Economic data point to slower but healthier growth, with easing inflation pressures and a cooling labor market—conditions that typically support lower or stable interest rates over time. ☀️ Weather ☔️ Have a great week!