Search Results

Today, we stand together to remember those who died to defend our nation. We honor their courage, mourn their loss, and remain forever grateful. The Market Is Cooling—Here’s Where Things Stand This May Let’s talk about where our market stands as we near the end of May—and let’s say, it’s cooler than it was this time last year. Below is a table showing the contract ratio on May 22, 2025, and last year for each dwelling type across the Real Estate market in Phoenix, AZ, May 2025 🔍 Market Snapshot: Cooler Across the Board No matter the dwelling type, the market is softer than in 2024. Single-family homes continue to hold the most strength, but even they’re in what I’d call a tepid market. On the other hand, mobile homes and apartments are currently the weakest segments. Mobile homes were already cool a year ago, so they’ve only slipped slightly. Apartments, however, have taken the biggest hit. The contract ratio for apartments has dropped to a historically low 21.2, meaning supply is high and demand is scarce. That weak demand could be driven not just by property features, but also by broader community-level concerns. 💰 Condos & Apartments: Headwinds Ahead Rising insurance premiums and increased HOA fees weigh heavily on condo and apartment sales. Some HOAs are underinsured, and lenders are taking notice. Special assessments are also more common, none of which help with buyer confidence. Selling in these categories requires serious patience and a strong strategy. 🏡 Single-Family: Tepid but Top Tier While single-family homes are still leading the pack, the market continues to shift in favor of buyers. This week, the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) dropped by 4.1%. That’s slightly less negative than the prior week’s 4.6%, but it’s still trending the wrong way for sellers. Only four cities improved for sellers this past month, with Fountain Hills taking the top spot from Chandler. Scottsdale, Chandler, Glendale, and Phoenix all saw notable deterioration. Maricopa and Buckeye showed some positive movement, but they’re still lagging. Today, we have: 3 Seller’s Markets (2 of which are hanging on by a thread), 8 Balanced Markets, and 6 Buyer’s Markets. 📉 Supply Stabilizing, Demand Weakening There’s a small silver lining for sellers: the flood of new listings is starting to ease. Between late January and early May, we saw over 10,000 new listings every four weeks—well above the long-term average of 8,665. As of May 21, we’ve dipped to 9,283, and the trend is heading downward. We like using 28-day periods to track trends because they smooth out quirks like varying month lengths and weekly listing spikes. It’s a more accurate way to measure market momentum. So while inventory growth is slowing, demand hasn’t found its footing. Higher mortgage rates are also primarily to blame. 📈 Interest Rates: Still a Heavy Anchor The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.08%, the highest in three months. With inflation concerns, international bond market jitters, and uncertainty around U.S. fiscal policy, we will unlikely see much relief soon. If rates could drop below 6.5%, we should see a meaningful uptick in demand—but for now, many buyers remain on the sidelines. Final Thoughts The market isn’t crashing—but it’s evolving. Smart pricing, excellent presentation, and strong agent guidance matter more than ever. Whether you’re considering selling this summer or want to understand local market trends, we are here to help you navigate it confidently. Housing Market April’s single-family housing starts were 1.6% higher than in March. However, permits for future construction fell 5.1% month over month. Due to economic uncertainty and high housing costs, existing home sales dropped 0.5% in April and 2.0% for the year. According to the ICE Mortgage Monitor, Gen Z made about one in four first-time homebuyer mortgage originations in the first quarter of 2025. Economy This week's Fed speakers reaffirmed the Board's commitment to a wait-and-see approach to rate changes due to economic uncertainty. New jobless claims were better than expected, while continuing claims rose by 36 K. Despite a stable market, New jobs may be hard to find. In an Achieve survey, 32% of households reported financial gains and 33% declines last year, though 57% had expected growth and 10% worsening.   East Valley Weather Have a great week!

For Buyers In April, there was a crisis of “crisis” headlines, spurred by unexpected tariffs and market volatility. The result was mortgage rates rising from 6.6% to 7.1%, which is nothing new for the housing industry. In fact, mortgage rates were higher at 7.2% just last January and even higher last May at 7.3% without any headlines screaming “crisis". Unfortunately, this time, active buyers froze with indecisiveness and shock, resulting in an 18% drop in weekly accepted contracts for three weeks after the tariff announcement. Fortunately, the first few weeks of May saw a slight recovery as some buyers woke up and returned to business. From the mess of chaos, a wave of opportunistic negative predictions about the housing market erupted across social media platforms. Even Newsweek ran an article suggesting that homes in Greater Phoenix could drop by 20%. While buyers would certainly swarm the housing market if property values suddenly dropped by 20%, the chance of that happening is slim. While Greater Phoenix is slipping farther into a buyer’s market, it’s not extreme enough for a collapse of that magnitude. Buyer’s markets over the past 25 years, excluding the 2008 sub-prime mortgage collapse, saw prices drop between 5% and 11% year-over-year, and those price declines were enough to pull the market back into a seller’s market each time. Questions persist about the degree to which Greater Phoenix homes are overvalued. To answer this, a basis must be established before the 2005-2008 bubble/crash, and a “typical home” must be defined. The median home sold in Maricopa County was 1,600 square feet in 2000 and 1,900 square feet in 2025, so a single-family home of 1,500-2,000 square feet is typical for this region. The annual appreciation rates from Q1 2001 through Q1 2004 ranged from 3.6% to 5.3%, with a median of 4.65%. The median rate across 25 years from Q1 2000 to Q1 2025 is 5.3% (high of 32.9% and low of –41.4%). Extrapolating the 4.65% appreciation rate over 25 years supports a price correction of 3% by next year. However, one could argue that prices are currently in line with where they would’ve been with a 5% annual appreciation rate over 25 years, below the 5.3% long-term median, and are already undervalued. Either way, the current buyer’s market supports declining prices over the next 3 months; 20% is extreme, but 3% is more reasonable. If mortgage rates move closer to 6.5% or lower, all projections will change again. For Sellers Brace yourselves, some buyers have become drunk with power. Negotiations have evolved from repairs and closing costs to remodeling requests in some cases, asking to replace things that are functioning correctly, but are not new or upgraded. Only six cities are left in seller’s markets, which are not very strong. They are El Mirage, Apache Junction, Tolleson, Chandler, Avondale, and Fountain Hills. Interior cities Glendale, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Gilbert all dropped from seller’s markets to balanced markets over the past 30 days, joining Mesa, Tempe, Cave Creek, Anthem, and Laveen. The remaining 13 cities are still in buyer’s markets. After having the best year ever for sales over $1M, volatility in the stock market in March and April caused lower luxury sales in April. At the same time, lower mortgage rates in March led to more closings under $500K in April. Thus, sales under $500K went from 56.7% market share in March to 60.1% in April, pulling down both the average and median price measures, and showing a 3.5% drop month-over-month and a 1.1% drop year-over-year. Both months averaged 315 closings per day. April saw a drop in contract activity, so May will be weaker for sales, but hope remains for June. Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 05/16/2025 Tariff-on, tariff-off. Tariff-on, tariff-off. Is this a macroeconomic Karate Kid? It’s become tough to interpret the latest data, mainly ‘before’ President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs took effect — but what will they look like ‘after’? That’s what’s on Fed Chairman Powell’s mind.   Fed Holds Steady on Rates, Takes "Wait and See" Approach   The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to maintain its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, continuing the pause established in January. This widely expected move comes as the Fed acknowledges increased risks to both inflation and unemployment.   Remember:  The Fed Funds Rate affects the overnight lending rate between banks, influencing broader interest rates throughout the economy, though it does not directly set mortgage or long-term rates.   What’s the bottom line?  The Fed remains focused on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. However, these goals may pull policy in opposite directions, especially with new tariffs creating economic uncertainty. Higher inflation typically prevents rate cuts, while economic slowdowns usually trigger them.   Given the uncertain impact of trade policies, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach in his post-meeting press conference: "We think right now the appropriate thing to do is to wait and see how things evolve." Powell used "wait" over twenty times during the Q&A session.   The Fed will closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment data, as future policy decisions could depend on which risks materialize first.   US-China Tariff Deal Sparks Joy.   The world’s two largest economies agreed to a 90-day partial reprieve on tariffs, and stock markets (predictably) went crazy. The NASDAQ composite index is now 9% above its pre-” Liberation Day” levels, and is only 5% below its mid-February highs. But bond markets weren’t so impressed. First, money flowed out of “risk-off” assets (like bonds) and into “risk-on” assets (like stocks). Second, the risk of a recession seems to have evaporated again. The Fed Funds Futures market is now only pricing in >50% probability of a rate cut at the FOMC’s September 17 meeting! Remember: When bond prices fall, bond yields rise. That’s just math. And when bond yields rise (e.g., the yield on 10-Year US treasury bonds is currently 4.54%), mortgage rates also generally increase. April CPI (inflation) report was pretty tame.    Both “headline” and “core” CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) rose just 0.2% month-over-month. That allowed the annual “headline” CPI figure to drop from 2.4% → 2.3%, while annual “core” CPI was stuck at 2.8%. There were no apparent signs of tariff impact yet; most of the increase came from rising “shelter” (housing) costs. If you annualize the last three months of “core” CPI growth, you get 2.1%. And the PCE inflation measure is generally lower than the CPI (because it has a much lower weighting for “shelter” costs). And the Fed’s inflation target is 2% on “core” PCE. How close is close enough? Mortgage Market  Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   June 18 FOMC Meeting: 92% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (no rate cut). This went WAY up from last week.   July 30 FOMC Meeting: 63% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (no rate cut). 34% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut at this meeting).   September 17 FOMC Meeting: 49% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both). 19% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings). Phoenix Is Evolving—Here’s What That Means for You If you’ve been in the Valley for a while, you know growth is nothing new. But what we’re seeing now is more than just an increase in population—it’s a complete transformation. Billions of dollars in investment, new job centers, and entire communities are taking shape across Metro Phoenix. So, what’s happening, and why does it matter? Let’s take a closer look. 🚀 Why People Keep Moving to Phoenix Between July 2023 and July 2024, nearly 85,000 new residents chose the Phoenix metro area as home, including around 17,000 in the city of Phoenix alone. And it’s not just California transplants anymore—international migration is on the rise, too. Why Phoenix? Think affordable living, a robust job market, over 300 sunny days a year, and room to grow. From North Scottsdale to the outskirts of the Southeast and West Valleys, housing demand is climbing—and it's closely tied to where jobs and infrastructure are being developed. 💼 Where Big Business Is Making Big Moves In North Phoenix, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is building three chip plants and plans to double its workforce by 2030. Around the site is a massive $7 billion master-planned community called Halo Vista, featuring homes, retail, dining, schools, and more. Meanwhile, the Southeast Valley—places like Chandler and Gilbert—is booming with new downtown areas, trendy mixed-use spaces, and big names like Whole Foods and Dick’s House of Sport. Even the West Valley is stepping up. Cities like Tolleson and Buckeye are growing into logistics hubs with projects like Verrado Marketplace and the I-10 Gateway, ensuring jobs and amenities support new homes. 📊 Market Snapshot – April 2025 Median Home Price (Phoenix): $457,998 Annual Increase: 3.1% Top Growth Areas: Southeast Valley, North Phoenix, West Valley Recognition: Phoenix was named a Top 10 Housing Market for both sales activity and price appreciation by Realtor.com Unlike some cooling markets nationwide, Phoenix is holding strong, fueled by job growth, infrastructure upgrades, and a steady influx of buyers. ⚠️ Growth Brings Challenges Let’s be honest—this level of expansion doesn’t come without pressure. Infrastructure, skilled labor, and water resources are all being tested. But solutions are in motion: Local colleges are partnering with companies like TSMC to train skilled workers Cities are repurposing underused retail spaces to meet new needs Water sustainability is becoming a top priority in urban planning 🔮 What’s Next? Phoenix isn’t just growing—it’s changing how we live. With lifestyle-focused communities, smarter city planning, and new opportunities on the horizon, now’s a critical time to stay informed. Whether you're thinking about buying or selling or just want to understand where the market is headed, let’s connect. Brad Daniels and his team are here to help you navigate your real estate and relocation needs. This week's weather!

As we head into May, the real estate market in Phoenix and surrounding areas continues to evolve, and 2025 is proving to be far more dynamic than last year. After a relatively quiet 2024, we're now seeing new patterns that could impact buyers and sellers in the summer months.   Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Market Update for May 12t,h 2025 Fewer Cities Favoring Sellers   Only five cities improved in conditions for sellers over the last month—two fewer than just a week ago—while twelve cities shifted more in favor of buyers. The average drop in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* across all 17 cities was -4.1%, which is more negative than the -3.2% decline we saw the week before.   Cities such as Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, and Scottsdale lead the trend toward buyer-friendly conditions, especially in mid-range to higher-end markets. On the flip side, Buckeye and Avondale continue to show signs of improvement for sellers, driven largely by more affordable pricing and localized demand.   Market Classifications   Three cities remain in seller’s markets (though all are very weak seller markets) Eight cities are now considered balanced markets Six cities have shifted into clear buyer’s market territory   Two New Trends for May   Supply Takes a Breath: New listings declined slightly after months of steady supply growth. Just 9,857 new listings were added over the past four weeks—down from the typical 10,000+ we’ve seen consistently since January. This slight reprieve will be welcome news for sellers struggling with intense competition.   Demand Begins to Dip Again: Unfortunately for sellers, demand is slipping once more. The number of homes under contract (Week 18 data) is now lower than any year since 2000, excluding the crash years of 2007 and 2008. Combined with a weak annual sales rate, this signals potential headwinds in the months ahead.   If this trend holds, we expect the Cromford® Supply Index (CSI) to level off. However, the Cromford® Demand Index (CDI) is already declining, and the CMI is dropping more quickly than it did in April—a strong signal that conditions continue to deteriorate for sellers.   What About Home Prices?   Industry forecasts from Zillow, Fannie Mae, and others still expect a stable 2025, with modest price increases by year-end. However, based on current data, that seems increasingly doubtful.   As of now:   The average price per square foot across all property types is $295.68 That’s 2.4% lower than January 1, 2025 And 3.7% lower than this time last year   If prices remain steady from here, we’ll still end 2025 in the red. With the CMI at 76, stability might be the best-case scenario.   Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, understanding these shifts can help you make more informed decisions. I'm always here to discuss specifics about your neighborhood or plans - Brad. * Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Let’s examine what moved interest rates this past week and what we continue to watch in the market and the economy. The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Progress Good news on inflation! The latest PCE report reveals headline inflation remained flat month over month while dropping to 2.3% yearly (down from 2.7%). Core PCE—the Fed's favorite inflation gauge—is now at 2.6%, closer to its 2% target. Meanwhile, consumer spending surged 0.7% in March, possibly as shoppers rushed to beat upcoming tariffs. What’s the bottom line?  Shelter costs comprise 18% of Core PCE and remain key to reaching the Fed's 2% goal. While these costs have stayed stubbornly high in official data, real-time rental reports from sources like Apartment List and CoreLogic show softer trends. As PCE catches up to these real-world rental conditions, inflation numbers should continue to improve. The Fed’s “pause” continues.  For the third meeting in a row, the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the Fed Funds Rate in the target range of 4.25%-4.50%. The last time the Fed cut rates was December 18, 2024. [Federal Reserve] April Jobs Report: Looking Beyond the Headlines April brought a surprise with 177,000 new jobs added – well above the expected 130,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.   What’s the bottom line?  While April's headline number appears strong, it's important to remember these figures will be revised in the coming months. Recent history suggests caution – the first three months of 2025 saw significant downward revisions (January: -32K, February: -49K, March: -43K). If April follows this pattern, job growth may fall below forecasts.   The problem is that the bond market reacts to the headline figure but typically ignores the revisions. Why? Because people are too busy looking at the new month’s headline data. As the table below shows, the number of jobs added in 1Q 2025 has already been revised down by a total of 124,000 (an average of 41,000 per month)! BLS Non-farm payroll  (monthly jobs added in thousands) And this certainly isn’t just a 2025 thing. In 2024, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 211,000 (~18,000 per month). And in 2023, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 360,000 (30,000 per month). Where would treasury yields (and mortgage rates) be if we got the right (revised) jobs number first? We’ll never know, but you must think a lot lower. Mortgage Market The Fed kept rates on hold again. A 25 bps rate cut is expected at the next meeting, but that is far from certain given the uncertain impact of tariffs.   With average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering around 7%, I feel another spring selling season slipping away. If mortgage rates don’t move lower, inventory will start to pile up, which could accelerate price declines in markets where inventory (both existing and new) is already high.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. June 18 FOMC Meeting:  66% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting (slightly higher than last week), 34% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50%. July 30 FOMC Meeting:  56% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut on either June 18 or July 30, but not both). 23% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both meetings). Housing Market Buyers returned to the spring market despite economic jitters. Purchase mortgage apps rose 11% for the week and 13% from a year ago. (Note: this is the national trend) According to the ICE Mortgage Monitor, first-time homebuyers made up 58% of agency purchase lending in the first quarter of 2025. Fannie Mae reports fewer people think it's a good time to sell as rising inventory, stalled sales, and economic uncertainty fuel competition fears. Economy The Fed held its policy rate steady at its May meeting, warning of growing inflation and unemployment risks amid trade policy uncertainty. Unemployment claims fell last week. After spiking briefly at the end of April, current levels again signal a stable labor market. April's ISMN data was mixed. Manufacturing activity contracted for a 2nd straight month, while the services sector grew modestly. East Valley Weather Keeping it under 100 Degrees this week in Mesa, Arizona. I'll take it! Have a great week, and don't hesitate to call or message me for your real estate inquiries. 602-679-1025 Direct

The market continues to shift in favor of buyers, with 12 cities showing a deterioration in seller conditions over the past month, matching last week’s trend. Only five cities posted improvements. Among them, Avondale stands out with a notable 10% gain, while Buckeye improved by 6%, and both Glendale and Surprise saw modest increases of 4%. Maricopa gave sellers a slight boost of 3%, but it still strongly favors buyers overall.   On the other end of the spectrum, cities such as Tempe, Cave Creek, Scottsdale, Gilbert, and Peoria are leading the movement toward more buyer-friendly conditions.   The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* now stands at -2.7%, a slight improvement over last week’s -2.9%. This signals a continued but slowing downward trend that began earlier this month. Demand remains relatively steady, but rising supply is the more significant factor, and it's bucking seasonal norms by accelerating in April. If this trend continues, we can expect inventory to swell even further during the second half of the year, unless there is a significant shift in the market.   If conditions remain unchanged, sellers may face an increasingly competitive landscape. More listings mean more choices for buyers and more price reductions and concessions from sellers who are eager to secure offers.   Currently, we have: Seven cities are still classified as seller’s markets Four cities in a balanced market territory Six cities are firmly in buyer’s market territory   Only Chandler and Avondale maintain CMIs above 120. The remaining five seller’s markets are barely holding on, with CMIs under 115, indicating minimal advantage for sellers. In practical terms, there are just two cities where sellers may still feel a meaningful edge.   While the overall CMI has been declining since late January, home prices remained surprisingly resilient through Q1. However, that strength may be fading fast. Over the past two weeks, the median sales price decreased by 1.7%, and the average price per square foot dropped by 2%. These shifts are significant for this time of year and raise concerns about further price softening.   If the CMI falls below 80, we may see continued price declines as the market seeks equilibrium. This environment feels reminiscent of Q2 2022, although this time, the absence of major iBuyer activity alters the dynamics. iBuyers, once influential, now represent too small a portion of the market to make a noticeable impact. * Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Housing Market Builder sentiment stayed negative in April. Tariff worries and high material costs outweighed a slight boost from lower mortgage rates. Purchase mortgage applications dropped 5% for the week but were 13% higher than the same week a year ago. More borrowers turned to adjustable-rate mortgages last week after interest rates surged amid market turmoil. Economy Retail sales experienced their most significant increase in over two years last month, as consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of impending tariffs. Fed Chair Powell reiterated this week that the Fed must ensure tariffs don't trigger a persistent rise in inflation, making rate cuts unlikely. Unemployment claims fell to a two-month low last week, indicating that companies were not resorting to large-scale layoffs as tariffs took effect. Have a great week!

You’ve been working on your savings and dreaming of that moment when you finally have the keys to a place that’s truly yours. You might not realize that your tax return could give you a little extra cash to help you get there sooner. As  Freddie Mac notes: “ . . . your tax refund from the IRS can be a useful supplement to your home-buying budget.” So, if you’re getting a tax refund this year, you can use it to help you pay for some of the upfront costs that come with buying a home, like the down payment and closing costs. And here’s the best part. On average, people got more money back in their refunds than last year. While it’s not a significant increase, the visual below uses data from the  Internal Revenue Service  (IRS) to show that the average individual’s refund is 3.9% higher this year: Of course, how much money you may get in your tax refund will vary. But when it comes to buying a home, any extra cash can help move things forward. Here are a few examples of how you can put that money to good use, according to Freddie Mac: Save for a down payment – Saving for a down payment can be one of the biggest hurdles for buyers. Setting aside your tax refund for this expense could help you reach your goal faster. Just remember, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. Pay for closing costs – Closing costs include fees for the appraisal, title insurance, and loan underwriting. They’re generally between 2% and 5% of the home's total purchase price. So, putting your refund toward these costs can make things more manageable on closing day. Lower your mortgage rate – Your lender might allow you to buy down your mortgage rate. If you qualify for this option, you could pay up front for a lower mortgage rate. It may be worth exploring if your budget is tight at today’s rates and home prices. But you don’t have to figure it all out on your own. Working with Brad and his team of trusted real estate professionals who understand the home-buying process, what you need to save, and any resources you can tap into will help ensure you’re ready to buy when the time comes. When saving for a home, every dollar gets you one step closer to your goal. While your tax refund may not be enough to change the game, it can help boost your home-buying fund. What would having your own home mean for you or your family this year?  Let’s talk about it and devise a strategy for success - Brad (602) 679-1025

New Contracts Spike Between $250K-$500K For the Phoenix Metro Area For Buyers   It’s not easy to make predictions, even for just a month or two. Home values typically don’t turn on a dime, so for a shift in supply or demand to have a lasting effect on home values, it must last for more than a few months. When a prediction is made regarding the housing market, it’s based on a level of expectation that current scenarios will continue. However, volatile trends in both the stock and bond markets have been changing by the hour due to abrupt and dramatic global trade negotiations, sending mortgage rates low and then high over the course of just a week. It’s like doing hard turns back and forth on the rudder of a large cargo ship; it’s a bumpy ride, but there’s minimal actual turning until the rudder commits to a position.   Fortunately, or unfortunately, volatility in the housing market has not been new over the last five years. From extremely low mortgage rates, high demand, and astronomical appreciation from 2020-2021 to extremely high mortgage rates, falling demand, and depreciation in 2022 to moderately high mortgage rates, low-but-stable demand, and flat appreciation from 2023-2025, real estate professionals have guided their clients through it all.   Emotions remain high in the news media headlines and consumer sentiment polls, but buyers continue to buy homes based on their personal needs, lifestyle, and financial situation. As of this writing, overall buyer demand in Greater Phoenix is holding steady, just about even with this time last year, with one unexpected spike in new contracts between $250K-$500K in late March. This coincided with a national 6% spike in FHA mortgage applications as qualified buyers took advantage of down-payment assistance and grant funds before regulations change regarding who may utilize them.   Supply continues to rise, putting buyers in a good position during negotiations, and prices remain stable, with the median up only 1.7% from last year. Negotiations are averaging 97.7% of the previous list price, down from 97.8% in April last year, but it varies by price range. Negotiations are still 99% of the list on a $ 300- $ 400 K single-family home and 98.6% for $400K-$500K. On a home listed for $450,000, that’s a $6,300 negotiation to $443,700 on top of another $10,000 in median costs toward seller-paid closing costs. Click here to contact us for your home value For Sellers   One segment of housing demand that does not care for the volatility in the markets is luxury buyers. Listings under contract over $1M have been drifting down for six weeks now as buyers take a pause to wait for some form of certainty to move forward. Despite this recent trend, contract activity remains the third-best Greater Phoenix has ever seen, behind 2022 and 2024. Supply in this price range is also at record levels, offsets the added demand, and keeps prices modest. Phoenix Real Estate Market Update:   ·  11 cities in Greater Phoenix are in very weak seller’s markets : Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Phoenix, Anthem, El Mirage, Glendale, Avondale, Apache Junction, Chandler, Gilbert ·  Four cities are in balanced markets : Cave Creek, Tolleson, Tempe, Mesa ·  14 cities are in buyer’s markets : Peoria, Goodyear, Surprise, Buckeye, Laveen, Sun City, Sun City West, Litchfield Park, Queen Creek, Sun Lakes, Maricopa, Gold Canyon, Arizona City, Casa Grande       A weak seller’s market will not look too different from a balanced market; it only means that price appreciation will be slightly higher than the rate of inflation, which is just 2.4% per the most recent CPI measure. Sellers are constantly testing the top price boundaries for a given, but they are routinely denied in a buyer’s market. This is reflected in the number of price reductions, up 68% compared to last year and at levels not seen since 2022. This is true even in seller’s markets of the Northeast Valley, with price reduction counts not seen since 2017. As a result, very few sellers are “greedy” in their asking prices as they are often lower or even lower than last year’s asking price per square foot. As with any buyer’s market, condition and pricing are top priorities for sellers. In some cases, that may be as simple as neutralizing kid’s room paint or accent walls, or as complicated as a new roof or major repairs before list. * Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the pending, active, and sold listings trends compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 04/04/2025 It was a wild week, with stock and bond markets moving violently up and down in response to Trump's tariffs, China’s retaliation, and growing recession fears. Let’s take a look.   Global Reciprocal Tariffs Announced   Last week, President Trump announced a new 10% "baseline" tariff on imports and country-specific tariffs set at roughly half the rates those countries charge on US exports. These sweeping new tariffs have created significant market uncertainty, as how other nations will respond remains unclear.   In the short term, the announcement sparked a sharp selloff in stocks, with bonds (including mortgage-backed securities) benefiting from a flight to safety. Given the fluid nature of these ongoing market dynamics, I will continue to monitor developments closely in the days and weeks ahead. March Sees Stronger Job Growth, But With Caveats   March delivered a surprising upside in job growth, with 228,000 new positions added – significantly exceeding the expected 135,000 to 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, this headline figure may be subject to revision in the coming months, as January and February saw downward adjustments totaling 48,000 fewer jobs.   Additionally, a closer look at the March data reveals some underlying weaknesses. The unemployment rate ticked slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average weekly earnings only increased 0.3% from February and 3.2% year-over-year – down from 3.7% in the prior report. Hours worked also remained at 34.2 for a second straight month, just above the lowest level since 2010 outside of the COVID-19 period.   Furthermore, the job gains were also concentrated in specific age groups, with 20-24-year-olds and those 55 and over seeing the most significant increases, while those in the prime earning ages of 25-54 lost 107,000 jobs. What’s the bottom line? While the headline job growth figure was stronger than expected, the March employment report has several essential caveats suggesting underlying weakness in the labor market. Private Payrolls Rebound   In March, the private sector exceeded expectations, adding 155,000 new jobs – well above the forecasted 105,000. Gains were seen across companies of all sizes, with small businesses adding a notable 52,000 positions after several months of weak or negative growth.   While the bulk of hiring occurred in the service sector (+132,000 jobs), there were also positive signs on the goods side, as manufacturing delivered stronger-than-average job gains for the second consecutive month.   Wage growth remained solid, though it dipped slightly for existing employees (from 4.7% to 4.6%). Those changing jobs saw a larger decline (from 6.8% to 6.5%), and the pay premium for job transitions matched a series low at 1.9%, suggesting less poaching and enticement to switch roles.   What’s the bottom line? ADP's chief economist Nela Richardson said, "Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March top line number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not all sectors."   Job Openings Fall in February   The number of open jobs declined modestly in February, down from 7.76 million in January to 7.57 million, falling short of estimates. The drop was particularly pronounced in the trade, finance, leisure, and hospitality sectors.   The hiring rate (3.4%) and quit rate (2%) remained near decade lows, excluding the COVID-19 period. The low hiring rate poses challenges for the unemployed seeking new roles. In contrast, the soft quit rate indicates diminished confidence in the job market, aligning with ADP data showing lower pay premium incentives for switching jobs.   What’s the bottom line? Job openings continue a downward trend, well below the 2022 peak of 1.2 million. Remote work has also led to posting job listings across multiple states, potentially inflating the JOLTS data and indicating even fewer openings than reported. Additionally, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has significantly decreased from over 2 in 2022 to 1.1, another signal of underlying labor market weakness.   Continuing Jobless Claims Reach 3-Year Peak.   Weekly initial jobless claims declined slightly to 219,000, staying low historically. However, the more concerning indicator is the persistent rise in continuing unemployment claims, which increased by 56,000 to reach 1.9 million – the highest level since November 2021.   Additionally, recent data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a 60% surge in job cut announcements in March, reaching 275,240 - the third highest monthly total on record. These cuts were concentrated in the federal government sector. Furthermore, hiring totals in the first quarter were the lowest since 2012.   What’s the bottom line? While new unemployment filings have mostly stayed muted, the elevated continuing claims, surging job cut announcements, and declining hiring collectively point to ongoing challenges in the employment landscape.   Mortgage Market   We can’t manage to keep mortgage rates lower for very long. Something always happens. In this case, it looks like a combination of the risk-off trade (selling stocks to buy bonds, pushing yields lower) reversing & something like a liquidity squeeze prompting investors to sell US treasuries.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   May 7 FOMC Meeting: 78% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 88% last week)! 22% probability of a 25 bps cut (25 bps = 0.25% = a quarter percentage point) to 4.00–4.25%. June 18 FOMC Meeting: 17% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down big from 34% last week). There is a 66% probability that the policy rate will be 25 bps below the current rate (which implies one rate cut on either May 7 or June 18). 17% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current. Housing Market ICE reports more than 1/4 of major housing markets have pre-pandemic inventory, with 18 running a surplus of 15% or more. ICE also reports slowing home price growth in the majority of markets. Still, 35% of markets show growth rates above their 30-year average. Mortgage demand jumped 20% last week as rates briefly dropped. Purchase apps rose 9% for the week and 24% year over year. Economy Last week's tariff announcement, followed by this week's news of a 90-day pause on some of those tariffs, sent markets into a tailspin. The Consumer Price Index showed cooling inflation in February. Many economists remain concerned about a tariff-induced increase. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed concerns about stagflation, a period of slowing economic growth paired with rising inflation. Beautiful weather this Easter weekend

This week’s market update is all about momentum—and it’s moving in favor of buyers. While the shift has been gradual, it’s picking up steam across much of the Greater Phoenix area, and it’s something both buyers and sellers should be paying attention to.   13 Cities Shift Away from Sellers   Over the past month, 13 cities have experienced less favorable conditions for sellers, while only four have seen improvements. Here’s the breakdown:   Top Gainers   Avondale leads with a strong 13% gain Glendale follows with a 4% improvement Surprise shows a 3% uptick Maricopa gained 1%, which is barely noticeable   Biggest Drops Favoring Buyers   Tempe, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Peoria, and Goodyear have all shifted more substantially toward buyer-friendly territory.   The average monthly CMI* (Cromford Market Index) change is now -3.0 %, up slightly from -2.7 % last week. This continues a softening trend that began two weeks ago.   Current Market Conditions   8 cities remain seller’s markets, but just barely 3 cities are balanced 6 cities are officially buyer’s markets Only Chandler is above a CMI of 120, and it’s clinging to that status   This is a clear signal that the market dynamic is shifting—and it may not be temporary.   Mortgage Rates, Consumer Sentiment, & Other Influencers   There are a few factors contributing to this trend: 10-year treasury yields have dipped below 4%, a hopeful sign for future mortgage rate relief However, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have only declined modestly Consumer confidence is weakening, potentially causing buyers to delay major purchases Foreclosures remain low, but we’re seeing a rise in trustee sale notices and a slow creep in unemployment   These are subtle shifts, but after years of stability, they’re worth watching closely.   What This Means for Buyers & Sellers   For Buyers: There’s a growing window of opportunity. More inventory, softening prices in some areas, and less competition can mean better deals and more negotiating power.   For Sellers, it’s time to be strategic. Proper pricing, presentation, and realistic expectations are critical in this evolving market. Overpricing a home right now could mean it sits on the market longer or needs a price cut.   Bottom Line: The market is softening Buyer opportunities are improving Sellers need to price wise and act quickly   We would love to chat if you’re wondering how this shift affects your neighborhood or next move. Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or investing, staying up-to-date on the market is crucial. * Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Housing Market Private residential construction spending rose more than expected in February. A mortgage-rate decline boosted single-family homebuilding. Inventory growth helped purchase apps reach their highest level since January. Apps were 2% higher than the prior week and 9% higher year over year. Economy According to the JOLTS report, job openings fell more than expected in February, and Federal government layoffs hit a four-year high. Wednesday's tariff announcement rocked the markets. Stocks sold off, pushing mortgage rates to a monthly low. In March, the service sector grew slowly in 9 months, amid government cuts and business uncertainty over tariffs. It's warming up! Have a great week. I am always available to answer your real estate questions. Contact me at (602) 679-1025 or email me here!

The latest data shows a shift in favor of buyers—but that shift, which had been slowing in recent weeks, is now beginning to accelerate again. Over the past month, 14 cities have seen seller conditions deteriorate, while only four cities have shown improvement. Notably, Cave Creek is no longer in the improving group.   The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* over the past month is -1.9 %, compared to -1.5 % last week. While the difference is slight, it marks the end of a 4-week trend of deceleration and the beginning of a new phase of market softening.   Tempe and Queen Creek, which includes San Tan Valley, are the fastest-declining markets. All other declining cities saw CMI drops of less than 7%.   As of now: Nine cities remain in seller’s markets, but none are strongly favorable to sellers—all have a CMI below 141. Three cities are balanced, and Five cities are in buyer’s markets, with Maricopa and Buckeye especially favoring buyers.   Avondale and Glendale shifted from balanced markets to very weak seller’s markets, joining Phoenix, Tempe, Fountain Hills, and Gilbert in the soft zone between a CMI of 110 and 120. Only three cities are above 120. Even though we’re typically at the peak of the buying season, supply continues to outpace demand. This is further confirmed by reports from homebuilders, who are experiencing underwhelming sales despite offering elevated incentives.   While the market’s downward trend is not steep, the direction is sliding in favor of buyers. * Cromford Market Index™ provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Phoenix Home Owners - What's Your Home Worth? Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 03/21/2025 Economic Uncertainty Grows, But Mortgage Rates Move Lower Concerns about the economy are mounting, with rising tariffs, slower GDP growth, and a weaker stock market contributing to uncertainty. However, there’s some good news—despite the Federal Reserve keeping short-term interest rates steady on March 19, mortgage rates are trending downward. Let’s break it down. Job Openings Rise, But Challenges Remain After a sharp decline in December, job openings rebounded in January, increasing from 7.5 million to 7.7 million—slightly exceeding expectations. Gains were notable in retail and finance, while professional and business services, as well as leisure and hospitality, saw declines. Despite the uptick, key hiring indicators suggest weakness in the job market. The hiring rate (3.4%) and quit rate (2.1%) are near decade lows (excluding the COVID-19 period), signaling a stricter environment for job seekers and a lack of confidence in switching jobs. Job openings remain well below the 2022 peak of 1.2 million, and recent data revisions reduced 2024 job openings by an average of 263,000 per month. Additionally, remote job postings spanning multiple states may inflate job listing numbers, further skewing the outlook. Stubbornly High Continuing Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims dipped by 2,000 to 220,000, staying relatively stable. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 1.87 million but have remained above 1.8 million since last June. While new claims remain low, the sustained elevation in continuing claims suggests job seekers struggle to find new employment quickly. Many unemployment benefits last only 26 weeks, so the rise in continuing claims as benefits expire indicates a slower hiring market—aligning with the JOLTS report’s findings on hiring challenges. Inflation Trends in a Positive Direction After a jump in food and energy prices pushed inflation higher in January, February’s data brought a welcome shift. Both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings came in lower than expected. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, while the annual rate eased from 3% to 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased by 0.2% monthly b ut softened to 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% previously. Featured Listing - Mesa, Arizona Housing Market Although the FHFA said it will not lower conforming loan limits, it has terminated special purpose credit programs. Pending home sales rebounded from a record low in January. Calmer weather and a greater selection of houses provided optimism. Mortgage demand from homebuyers was the strongest in nearly 2 months. Purchase apps rose 1% for the week and 7% over a year ago. Economy Unemployment applications held steady last week, indicating that the labor market remains healthy as companies retain employees. Concerns about tariffs, inflation, and market volatility pushed consumer confidence for the future economy to a 12-year low in March. The fourth-quarter GDP was revised to an annual rate of 2.4%. Continued growth is expected, though tariffs could slow the pace. Lower temps this week for Phoenix and the east valley cities! Have a great week!

Spring brings longer days, blooming flowers, and the perfect excuse to tidy your yard. But what if your neighbor’s tree does more than provide shade? Overgrown branches or invasive roots creeping onto your property can cause frustration and potential damage. So, what are your rights when handling these wayward trees in Phoenix, Arizona? Your Tree is Throwing Shade.....Literally! Understanding Your Rights Arizona law has no one-size-fits-all rule for trimming trees that extend beyond property lines. However, in the key case  Cannon v. Dunn , the Arizona Court of Appeals ruled that property owners have the right to trim branches and cut roots that extend onto their land without prior approval from the neighbor. That being said, there are clear limits: You can only trim up to the property line. You cannot harm, kill, or remove the tree entirely. If you cut beyond your property or cause damage to the tree, your neighbor may have legal grounds to seek compensation. Best Practices for Handling the Issue Before you grab your pruning shears and start cutting away, follow these steps to avoid disputes and ensure you're within your legal rights: 1. Communicate First  – Start with a friendly conversation. Let your neighbor know about the issue, whether it’s branches scraping your roof, roots cracking your pavement, or excessive leaves making a mess. Open dialogue can often lead to a simple, agreeable solution. 2. Put It in Writing  – If a verbal discussion doesn’t resolve the matter, send a polite written notice outlining your concerns. Include a request for action by a specific date and state your intent to trim if necessary. 3. Get Professional Advice  – Consulting an arborist or landscaper can help you determine the best and safest way to trim the branches or roots without harming the tree. A professional opinion can also provide documentation if a dispute arises. * If you need referrals to a licensed arborist in Mesa, Arizona, or surrounding areas, contact us here! 4. Document Everything  – Take clear before-and-after photos of the tree to establish what changes were made. This can serve as proof in case your neighbor challenges your actions. 5. Hire a Professional for the Job  – While Arizona law allows you to trim branches and roots up to your property line, having a licensed arborist or landscaper do the work ensures it’s done correctly, safely, and legally. 6. Consider Legal Action if Necessary —You may have legal options if the issue persists and your neighbor becomes uncooperative. The  Cannon  decision allows homeowners to seek damages or injunctive relief in cases where tree-related disputes cause harm or legal complications. Contact us today for a price on your home! A Neighborly Approach Taking proactive steps and maintaining open communication can help prevent conflicts while keeping your yard in shape. With some planning and consideration, you can handle overgrown trees without harming relationships—or the tree itself. Happy trimming, and get it done before it gets too hot!!! Blog by: Brad Daniels, The East Valley Team at My Home Group! 602-679-1025

The latest data shows a shift in favor of buyers—but that shift, which had been slowing in recent weeks, is now beginning to accelerate again. Over the past month, 14 cities have seen conditions deteriorate for sellers, while only four cities have shown improvement. Notably, Cave Creek is no longer in the improving group.   The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* over the past month is -1.9%, compared to -1.5% last week. While the difference is slight, it marks the end of a 4-week trend of deceleration and the beginning of a new phase of market softening.   Tempe and Queen Creek, which includes San Tan Valley, are the fastest-declining markets. All other declining cities saw CMI drops of less than 7%.   As of now: Nine cities remain in seller’s markets, but none are strongly favorable to sellers—all have a CMI below 141. Three cities are balanced, and Five cities are in buyer’s markets, with Maricopa and Buckeye especially favoring buyers.   Avondale and Glendale shifted from balanced markets to very weak seller’s markets, joining Phoenix, Tempe, Fountain Hills, and Gilbert in the soft zone between a CMI of 110 and 120. Only three cities are above 120. Even though we’re typically at the peak of the buying season, supply continues to outpace demand. This is further confirmed by reports from homebuilders, who are experiencing underwhelming sales despite offering elevated incentives. Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the pending, active, and sold listings trends compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Housing Market Existing home sales unexpectedly increased in February as rising supply and falling mortgage rates pulled buyers back into the market. Housing starts were stronger than expected in February, though builders faced persistent labor and buildable lots shortages. Builder confidence fell to a 7-month low in March due to economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs. Economy The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at the March meeting. Fed members are expected to cut policy rates twice in 2025. Retail sales were up less than forecast in February, and January was revised downward to mark the most significant drop since July 2021. Initial jobless claims rose slightly last week. Continuing claims also rose, with more people remaining jobless longer than a year ago. How to Pick the Right Movers for Your Arizona Relocation Moving to Arizona? Choosing the right moving company can make all the difference in ensuring a smooth transition. Here’s what to look for when selecting the best movers for your needs. 1. Check Reviews & Recommendations Research online reviews on Google, Yelp, and the Better Business Bureau (BBB). Ask friends, family, or your real estate agent for trusted recommendations. 2. Verify Licensing & Insurance Ensure the movers are licensed and insured. Interstate movers should have a U.S. DOT number , while Arizona-based movers must be registered with the Arizona Corporation Commission . 3. Get Multiple Quotes Request at least three in-home or virtual estimates. Be cautious of quotes that seem too good to be true—they often are! A reputable mover provides a detailed breakdown of costs. Brad’s #1 Tip:  Many moving companies offer quotes over the phone or via Zoom, but I’ve found that these estimates often increase on moving day. The most accurate quotes come from companies that send a representative to assess your furniture and belongings in person. This ensures transparency and helps avoid unexpected costs. 4. Understand the Contract Read the fine print! Confirm if the estimate is binding (fixed price)  or non-binding (subject to change) . Ask about additional fees for stairs, long carries, or special packing. 5. Ask About Experience in Arizona Moves Arizona’s climate and terrain require special considerations, like heat-sensitive packing and navigating desert roads. Movers experienced in the area will handle your belongings with care. 6. Inquire About Storage Options If your new home isn’t ready immediately, see if the movers offer short-term or long-term storage solutions  to keep your belongings safe. 7. Look for Added Services Some companies offer packing, unpacking, and furniture assembly , which is worth considering if you want a hands-off move. Final Tip: Trust Your Instincts Move on if a company seems shady or pressures you into a quick decision. A trustworthy mover will be transparent and professional from start to finish. Do you need recommendations for reliable movers in Arizona? Feel free to contact me—I’m happy to help make your relocation as seamless as possible! The valley weather is heating up quickly! It may be a good time to call your HVAC professional and get your units checked and serviced.

Circular Sun House, Phoenix, Arizona Frank Lloyd Wright Circular Sun House for sale in Phoenix, Arizona. Frank Lloyd Wright’s final residential masterpiece, the Circular Sun House, is currently available for discerning buyers seeking a unique blend of architectural brilliance and natural harmony. Designed in 1959 for Norman Lykes, this iconic home was completed in 1967 by Wright’s apprentice, John Rattenbury. Nestled on a 1.3-acre hillside lot at 6836 N 36th St, Phoenix, AZ 85018, the property offers panoramic views of the Palm Canyon and the surrounding desert landscape. Interior Family Room As one of only 14 circular homes designed by Wright, the Circular Sun House exemplifies his innovative approach to organic architecture. The 3,095-square-foot residence features three bedrooms and three bathrooms, seamlessly integrating indoor and outdoor spaces to harmonize with the environment's natural contours. Wright’s signature use of curved hallways, custom-built Philippine mahogany cabinetry, and expansive windows allows for abundant natural light and unobstructed views, creating a living experience that is both aesthetically pleasing and functionally efficient. Balcony view Unique Features • Custom Built-Ins : The residence boasts built-in furniture designed to complement its circular aesthetic, providing both beauty and practicality. • Outdoor Living : A circular swimming pool lined with mother-of-pearl offers a luxurious space for relaxation, while multiple terraces and patios provide ideal settings for entertaining against the backdrop of stunning desert vistas.  The pool was not part of the original design but was added by a subsequent owner after Norman Lykes sold the house.  • Private Spaces : The master suite includes an adjacent balcony, allowing for private enjoyment of the surrounding natural beauty. Kitchen Current Listing The Circular Sun House is currently listed at $8.95 million, reflecting its architectural pedigree and unique design. The property has been meticulously maintained to preserve Wright’s original vision while accommodating modern living standards. Assistance for Potential Buyers I can provide comprehensive assistance throughout the purchasing process for those captivated by this extraordinary property. My services include: • Personalized Tours : Arrange private viewings to experience the home’s unique features and ambiance firsthand. • Market Analysis : Provide detailed insights into the current luxury real estate market to inform your investment decision. • Negotiation Expertise : Utilize my experience to navigate the complexities of acquiring a historically significant property. Contact Brad Daniels for showings: (602) 679-1025 or email me here Owning the Circular Sun House is not just about acquiring a residence; it’s about becoming a steward of architectural history. If this exceptional home resonates with your aspirations, I invite you to contact me to explore this opportunity further. Additional information and Photos: Here Please note: All information is based on current listings and may be subject to change. Listing courtesy of Realty One Group, Deanna Peters

It’s a Buyer’s Market. Why aren’t prices crashing? For Buyers Phoenix has been in a buyer’s market for three of the past four months, and as of this writing, that trend continues into March. Some buyers might be surprised that home prices haven’t declined yet—the median price is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, price shifts typically take 3–6 months to reflect market changes, as the shift needs to be sustained for at least a season before impacting pricing. Why does it take so long? One key reason is the time it takes to complete a sale. First, a home is listed, often spending about 30 days on the market before going under contract. Then, after another 30–45 days in escrow, the final sale price is recorded. At least two additional months of data are needed to establish a trend. In contrast, stocks can be bought and sold instantly, making them far more volatile. This is only the fourth buyer’s market in Greater Phoenix over the past 25 years. The one from 2006–2008 was particularly severe, leaving lasting concerns among those who experienced it. Because that housing crash coincided with the Great Recession, some fear home values could crash if another recession occurs. However, history suggests otherwise—home prices typically flatten or see slow growth during recessions rather than plummeting. Demand often increases as mortgage rates decline. Current indicators suggest that if supply rises, home prices may decrease in the coming months, but more like a gradual dip rather than a dramatic crash. Most price ranges currently see 1–2% appreciation year-over-year, below the inflation rate. However, not all segments are behaving the same way. Condos and townhomes under $400K have seen the steepest declines, down 4.2% so far this month, while homes priced between $1M—$1.5M are experiencing the strongest growth at +5.5%. Under these conditions, even a tiny drop in mortgage rates could significantly impact a buyer’s purchasing power. For Sellers Today’s buyer’s market isn’t the result of falling demand. The Cromford® Demand Index  is currently rising. Instead, the increase in supply is creating challenges for sellers. So far this year, the Arizona Regional MLS has recorded more new listings than in the past four years, resulting in the highest active listing count since 2015. While demand is improving, it’s not enough to absorb the surge in inventory. As a result, price reductions have jumped 58% compared to last year, and buyers are negotiating more aggressively—even for move-in-ready homes. Sellers are also being more realistic with pricing. The average list price per square foot is mostly within 1% of last year. Still, competition pushes some sellers to go the extra mile—whether by staging vacant homes, updating appliances, or making cosmetic improvements like neutralizing paint. Negotiations are a bit tougher once an offer is secured than last year. For homes under $1M, final sale prices are averaging 98.3% of the previous list price , down slightly from 98.6%  last year. On a $500,000 home, that equates to a $8,500 price reduction  compared to $7,000  last year. For homes over $1M, final sale prices are averaging 95.4% of the previous list price , down from 96.4% —meaning a $46,000 price reduction  on a $1M home compared to $36,000  last year. Some good news for sellers: mortgage rates have been declining  since their January peak of 7.26%  and are currently averaging 6.78%  (per Mortgage News Daily). Recent economic uncertainty, potential tariffs, and government downsizing have caused investors to shift money into more stable assets like bonds, which has lowered the 10-year Treasury yield, which is closely tied to 30-year mortgage rates. If rates drop below 6.5% , the market will likely become more favorable for sellers. Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC Housing Market Lennar and Icon, a 3D technology company, partnered to 3D print 100 homes in Georgetown, Texas. About 75% of them have already sold. Though rates were no longer falling, total mortgage apps jumped 11% last week. Purchase apps rose 7% for the week and 4% year over year. Pending home sales ticked up for the week but were slightly lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is up 28% nationwide from last year. Economy After rising in January, wholesale prices remained unchanged in February. Markets are concerned tariffs may lead to future increases. The CPI showed slowing inflation in February. The drop-off is not expected to trigger policy rate cuts at next week's Fed meeting. Job openings rose to 7.74 million in January, signaling employer optimism amid ongoing labor market concerns. Relocating to Arizona? Here are ten key pointers for anyone relocating to Arizona from out of state from relocation specialist Brad Daniels. 1. Understanding Arizona’s Climate • Arizona is known for its hot summers and mild winters. Be prepared for triple-digit temperatures in the summer, and invest in good air conditioning. • Monsoon season (June–September) can bring heavy rains and dust storms (haboobs), so familiarize yourself with safety measures. 2. Cost of Living & Housing • Arizona offers a lower living cost than states like California, but prices have risen in recent years. Research property taxes, HOA fees, and utility costs. • If you’re moving from a humid climate, be aware that evaporative cooling is less effective, and you’ll likely rely on air conditioning year-round. 3. Choosing the Right Area • Phoenix Metro : Offers urban and suburban living, with cities like Scottsdale, Gilbert, and Chandler providing excellent schools and amenities. • Tucson : A more laid-back atmosphere with a strong university presence. • Northern Arizona : Flagstaff and Prescott provide cooler temperatures and mountainous landscapes. 4. Employment & Job Market • Key industries include healthcare, technology, education, and aerospace. Many companies have relocated here due to Arizona’s business-friendly environment. • Remote work is popular, but check internet provider options in your area, as some rural parts have limited connectivity. 5. Transportation & Commuting • Arizona is car-dependent, especially in the Phoenix area, where public transportation is limited. Consider commute times and traffic patterns when choosing a home. • If moving to a desert or rural area, a vehicle with good air conditioning and reliable tires is essential. 6. Taxes & Financial Considerations • Arizona has a lower income tax than states like California, making it an attractive destination for retirees and remote workers. • No tax on Social Security benefits, which is beneficial for retirees. 7. Utilities & Water Usage • Water conservation is a significant concern in Arizona. Be mindful of usage and consider xeriscaping (low-water landscaping). • APS and SRP are the two primary electric providers in the Phoenix area, and summer electric bills can be high—look into energy-efficient home options. 8. Lifestyle & Recreation • Arizona offers incredible outdoor activities, from hiking in the Superstition Mountains to boating in Lake Pleasant. • The state has a strong sports culture, with major teams in football (Cardinals), basketball (Suns), and baseball (Diamondbacks). 9. Schools & Education • Arizona has a mix of public, charter, and private schools, with charter schools being a popular choice. Research local school ratings if moving with kids. • Higher education options include Arizona State University (ASU), University of Arizona (UofA), and Northern Arizona University (NAU). 10. Getting Settled • Register your vehicle with the Arizona MVD within 30 days of moving. Arizona does require emissions testing in some counties. • Update your driver’s license and consider getting an Arizona Real ID if you plan to fly domestically. East Valley Weather - Get prepared for great weather! Happy St. Patrick's Day