Buyer Advantage Holds In Phoenix, Arizona — But Balance Is Creeping In

Buyer Advantage Holds In Phoenix, Arizona — But Balance Is Creeping In

A Slight Lift for Buyers

 

We’re seeing a touch more strength in buyer-favoring cities this week. Twelve cities leaned more toward buyers over the past month, one held steady, and five tipped toward sellers — including Tempe, Buckeye, Fountain Hills, Chandler, and Cave Creek.

Leading the buyer-friendly shift? Paradise Valley, Peoria, Goodyear, Scottsdale, and San Tan Valley. Everyone else nudged 5% or less.

The Cromford Market Index* slipped an average of 2.1%, mirroring last week. The buyer-leaning trend is still intact, just holding steady without much acceleration or cooling.

Right now we have:

• 6 seller’s markets

• 5 balanced markets

• 7 buyer’s markets

October Market Snapshot

 

Affidavits of Value are in, and here’s how October shook out across Maricopa County:

📍 6,059 total closings• ↓ 1.5% from October 2024• ↑ 2.1% from September

🏡 New homes: 1,272 closings• ↓ 15.4% YOY• ↓ 3.1% MOM

🔁 Resales: 4,787 closings• ↑ 3% YOY• ↑ 3.6% MOM

💰 Median Prices

• Overall: $478,990 (↑ YOY, ↓ 2% MOM)

• New homes: $536,091 (↑ 2% YOY)

• Resales: $460,000 (↑ 1.1% YOY)

Since October had the same number of working days as last year, the year-over-year comparison here is clean — no adjustments needed.

What to Take Away

 

Resales showed solid strength with a 3% YOY increase, while new-home sales dropped over 15%, pulling total sales slightly lower compared to last October. Still, October outperformed September, thanks in part to an extra working day and a modest pickup in activity.

Pricing is up slightly year over year but still trailing inflation—a textbook sign of a market that has largely favored buyers. Builders also seem to be easing off aggressive incentives, as higher median prices mixed with lower volume suggest they’re holding a bit firmer.

This data reflects single-family, townhomes, and condos in Maricopa County.

Good stuff to keep in mind as you plan your next move — whether you’re thinking of buying while leverage is still on your side, or prepping to list in a spring market that’s likely to feel a bit more balanced.

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Fed Cuts Rates for the Second Time This Year — Even Without New Data 

This was meant to be “jobs week” (JOLTs, ADP, BLS), but on account of the government shutdown, we only got ADP.  Let’s take a look…..

ADP: Job growth swung positive, but remained weak

Private employers added a net 42,000 jobs in October, a notable improvement after two consecutive months of net job losses. Wage growth for “job stayers” was steady at +4.5% YoY, while wage growth for “job changers” rose slightly to +6.7% YoY (from +6.6% YoY).

It’s important to recognize that +42,000 jobs is NOT a strong number. Pre-pandemic, it was not unusual to see numbers between +100,000–200,000 per month. At the same time, annual wage growth — and the premium to switching jobs vs. staying — remains low. Broadly speaking, this report is consistent with a lackluster job market (“no hire, no fire”) and modest inflation.

Bond and Mortgage Market

Last week, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but Jerome Powell’s commentary that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion” rattled the bond markets. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond moved back above 4%, reaching 4.12%.

But as you know, mortgage rates have their own market dynamics. Over the last few years, the “mortgage spread” between average mortgage rates and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has been narrowing. In mid-2022, it reached 3.0%. Today it’s at 2.1%. Historically, it’s been 1.6–1.8%. When the “mortgage spread” gets smaller, mortgage rates can move down even if Treasury yields are flat or slightly up. And that’s what’s been happening lately.

After the rate cut on Oct 29, the Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 3.75–4.00%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market.

• December 10 FOMC Meeting: 69% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (was 87% last week and 91% the week before that). In other words, another 25 bps rate cut on December 10. But a solid (and growing) 31% probability that the Fed will keep rates on hold.

• January 28 FOMC Meeting: 57% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (was 49% last week). That implies a 25 bps rate cut at one of the December and January meetings. 23% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (was 44% last week). 

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