Market Perks Up in Phoenix — But Sellers, Don't Celebrate Just Yet
- Brad Daniels
- Oct 6
- 5 min read
Market perks up in Phoenix — But sellers, don’t celebrate just yet, as the affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County’s September filings, and the results paint an interesting picture of a market that’s shifting ever so slightly in favor of sellers — but only just.
Sales Activity
September saw 5,933 closed transactions, a 6.3% increase from September 2024 (5,494) and up 1.0% from August. Of these:
1,313 were new homes, down 8.9% year over year but up slightly (0.2%) from August.
4,620 were resale homes, up 11.5% from last year and 1.2% from August.
While September 2025 had a slight advantage with 21 working days (compared to 20 last year), meaning more opportunities to process closings, the increase in resale activity is still notable. Higher-end resale homes re-emerged after a quiet summer between June and August.
Pricing Trends
Median sales prices bounced back in September:
Overall median: $488,772 — up 3.6% from last year and 2.9% from August.
New home median: $532,645 — up 2.7% year over year but down 0.4% from August.
Resale median: $470,000 — up 4.4% year over year and 4.5% from July.
In short, resale prices are gaining momentum over new homes, signaling renewed buyer confidence in the existing housing stock.
Market Dynamics
Between September 2 and October 2, the market nudged slightly in favor of sellers. The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI) was +0.4%, continuing a slowdown from +3.1% the previous week and +5.9% the week before.
Interest rates provided the market with a temporary boost in early September, with the 30-year fixed loan reaching a low of 6.13% on September 16. However, rates jumped to 6.36% after September 17, tempering buyer enthusiasm and allowing inventory to follow its normal seasonal increase.
Over the past five weeks, new listings have been plentiful, adding to active supply levels across the Valley.
Market by City
Over the last month, 11 cities have shifted in favor of sellers, while six have shifted in favor of buyers. Notably, Buckeye and Avondale were the two that switched sides since last week.
However, zooming in to just the past seven days, the momentum has tilted back toward buyers — 14 cities moved in favor of buyers, while only three (Tempe, Mesa, and Gilbert) managed gains for sellers, all located in the Southeast Valley.
As of now:
7 cities are in seller’s markets (3 only barely).
4 cities remain balanced.
6 cities sit in a buyer’s market territory.
The Bottom Line
Despite a modest September uptick, the Greater Phoenix market remains finely balanced. Sellers are regaining slight leverage, especially in select areas of the Southeast Valley, but rising inventory and modestly higher rates are keeping conditions in check.
Buyers still have opportunities—particularly in markets that have softened—and motivated sellers are adjusting accordingly. The next few weeks will determine whether this small seller-side advantage holds or fades as we move deeper into fall.
Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 10/02/2025
The government shutdown was the big headline of the past week. So let’s take a look at that and some other key points…
The government shutdown has delayed key economic data, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report and weekly unemployment claims. The BLS report was expected to play a key role in shaping the Fed’s next rate decision at its October 29 meeting. This delay comes at a critical time, as the Fed weighs two competing forces: inflation that remains above target, and growing signs of a slowing economy.
In its absence, the ADP Employment Report carries more weight than usual – and the latest numbers showed clear signs of softening. ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, missing expectations for a 50,000-job gain. Job losses were broad-based, with seven out of ten sectors reporting declines. August’s report was also revised down sharply, from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000-job loss.
If the shutdown continues, it may delay key inflation reports that the Fed also relies on when determining monetary policy.
How the government shutdown could impact your home loan or closing
The federal government shutdown is already affecting key parts of the housing market – and if you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, here’s what you need to know.
Several government-backed programs are facing delays or suspensions:
USDA rural home loans are currently paused.
FHA and VA loans are still being processed, but reduced staffing could slow down approvals and appraisals.
The IRS may be delayed in processing tax transcripts, which is a common requirement for many mortgages.
Another concern is the pause of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), managed by FEMA. However, there are private flood insurance alternatives available, like Neptune, that could provide coverage options.
While I don’t expect this to cause real issues in the loan process, and I don’t expect this shutdown to last that long, it is something to be aware of.
JOLTs — Nothing shocking
Job openings were pretty much flat in August at 7.2 million. Both the hiring rate (3.2%) and the quits rate (1.9%) were at/near 10 year lows. This ‘no hire/no fire’ environment speaks to the lack of confidence of both employers (of strong growth ahead) and employees (of being able to find a higher-paying job). [BLS]
ADP — Jobs going backwards
Giant payroll processor ADP reported that private employers LOST a net 32,000 jobs in September. That was way below expectations for 45,000 in job GAINS. In addition, the jobs number for August was revised down from +54,000 to -3,000. That means that the number of jobs has declined in three out of the last four months. Is this the ‘solid’ job market Fed Chairman Jerome Powell keeps talking about? [ADP]
Bond and Mortgage Market
Given all the issues with the BLS jobs report (consistently large, negative revisions), the ADP report was already becoming more important. But with the September BLS jobs report release delayed by the government shutdown, the weaker-than-expected ADP report became the primary market mover during ‘jobs week’. Effectively, the ADP report convinced the market (once again) that the Fed will cut rates at each of the last two meetings of the year.
Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.
October 29 FOMC Meeting: 99% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 86% last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29.
December 10 FOMC Meeting: 87% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (way up from 65% last week). In other words, a third 25 bps rate cut on December 10.
Market in a Minute...National View
Housing Market
Pending sales of existing homes increased solidly in August to the highest level in 5 months, helped along by lower mortgage rates.
Data suggests home price growth is cooling nationwide. Appreciation is decelerating amid affordability pressure.
Real estate transactions that rely on government services, such as tax record confirmation, may be delayed during government closures.
Economy
According to ADP, private payrolls experienced their largest decline in 2 1/2 years in September, a sign of weakening labor market conditions.
Despite essential services remaining open, the government shutdown means key reports, including Friday’s jobs report, will not be released.
Markets are already betting that the shutdown will contribute to weakening the economy. There's increasing speculation of further Fed rate cuts.
East Valley Weather
Have a great week - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025
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