The Buyer’s Window Is Closing: Market Shift Ahead in Greater Phoenix, Arizona

The Buyer’s Window Is Closing: Market Shift Ahead in Greater Phoenix, Arizona

The first thing to note this week is that our tracking now includes 18 major cities. We’ve officially separated Queen Creek (85142) from San Tan Valley (85140, 85143, 85144), as their boundaries have become more defined and San Tan Valley has grown into the largest town in Pinal County.

The second—and perhaps most telling—change is visual: a sea of red dots has returned to the table. After several weeks of seller momentum, the market has shifted back in favor of buyers. Over the past month, 11 cities moved in a direction favorable to buyers, while 7 became more favorable for sellers.

Among the seller-leaning cities are Tempe, Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek, and Scottsdale—with Tempe and Gilbert seeing the most notable gains (over 5%). Fountain Hills and Peoria also trended slightly toward sellers, though by negligible margins.

Leading the pack for buyers are Cave Creek and Paradise Valley, followed by Avondale. For most other cities, shifts were minor (3% or less), but the overall trend is clear: the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* fell 1.1%, down from +0.4% last week—a sign that this softening will likely continue through mid-November.

We now see seven cities in seller’s markets, four in a balanced market, and seven in a buyer’s market.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates remain stable, hovering between 6.34% and 6.38%, according to Mortgage News Daily. However, that level isn’t low enough to spark meaningful demand. Active listings without a contract rose 1.85% over the past week and will soon exceed 25,000. Including CCBS and UCB statuses, that number climbs to nearly 28,000—a clear signal that inventory is stacking up.

Across most price points, sellers would benefit from less competition. Entry-level supply now far outpaces demand, leaving first-time buyers in a strong negotiating position—if they have the right guidance. At the opposite end, luxury demand remains steady, buoyed by gains in stocks, crypto, and precious metals. However, if those markets falter, expect a swift decline in high-end demand and a corresponding surge in supply.

Even homebuilders are pulling back after seeing August’s buyer enthusiasm fade. Many are quietly offering price cuts and incentives on quick-move-in homes to avoid overbuilding. Public builder stock prices have dropped sharply over the past week—a reflection of the caution among investors.

*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

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Data Blackout: Markets Navigate Without Jobs or Inflation Reports

We find ourselves in a data vacuum. No BLS jobs report last week. Maybe no CPI report next week. However, mortgage rates are holding steady near 6.3%, and the market is still expecting two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.

No BLS jobs data last Friday. Thanks to the government shutdown, the BLS employment report for September wasn’t released. Was the analysis at least finished? Has Jerome Powell seen the data? We don’t know. Separately, the Carlyle Group (a giant investor) said that it estimated that the US economy added just 17,000 jobs in September, well below Wall Street expectations of +54,000. [ADP, Carlyle Group]

As a reminder, the BLS reported 22,000 jobs added in August, while ADP reported 32,000 net job losses in September.

2026 Federal Income Tax Brackets

Good news for future filers: Tax brackets and standard deductions are going up for 2026, which could mean potential tax savings when you file in April 2027.

Bond and Mortgage Market

Average 30-year mortgage rates got as low as 6.13% in mid-September before quickly rebounding to ~6.30%. And they’ve hovered around those levels for the last three weeks. In the absence of official government data, the market has taken its cues from: 1) private data sources like ADP (generally evidencing a weaker job market), and 2) moves in international bond yields (generally higher).

We are scheduled to receive the September CPI (inflation) data next Wednesday, but this may not occur if the government shutdown continues.

Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.

• October 29 FOMC Meeting: 95% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down slightly from 99% last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29.

• December 10 FOMC Meeting: 82% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down slightly from 87% last week). In other words, a third 25 bps rate cut on December 10.

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Markets in a Minute...National View

Housing Market

• Purchase mortgage applications decreased 1% for the week but remained 14% higher than the same week a year ago.

• Adjustable-rate mortgages have increased slightly in popularity. ARMs made up 9.5% of applications last week, up from 8.4% the previous week.

• AI-enhanced listing photos enable agents to "virtually stage" homes at a fraction of the normal cost, but they are raising concerns about transparency.

Economy

• Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed that officials largely agreed a recent slowdown in the labor market outweighed concerns about inflation.

• The government shutdown continues this week, delaying key economic reports and making private-sector data even more important to markets.

• Gold hit a new high and surged past $4,000/oz as investors fled risk, seeking safety amid market volatility and speculation about the Fed's policy rate cut.

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Weather

I truly appreciate your continued referrals — they mean the world to me. If you’re thinking about relocating to Arizona or selling your home, let’s connect and make your next move a success. Brad Daniels | East Valley Real Estate Team 📞 (602) 679-1025 | 🌐 www.RelocateToAZ.com