January Market Update: Trends & Insights for Maricopa County
The latest real estate data is in, and we’ve analyzed Maricopa County’s January 2025 filings to give you a clear picture of where the market stands. While we saw a notable increase in closed transactions compared to January 2024, the numbers remain lower than in December, signaling a seasonal shift.
Market Snapshot
Total Closed Transactions: 5,066, up 6.7% year-over-year but down 13% from December.
New Home Sales: 1,138, up 4.1% from January 2024 but down 18% from December.
Resale Transactions: 3,928, up 7.4% from January 2024 but down 11% from December.
Home Prices Hold Steady
Overall Median Sales Price: $484,990, up 6.6% year-over-year and 0.5% month-over-month.
New Home Median Price: $539,715, up 7.9% from January 2024 and 1.2% from December.
Resale Median Price: $460,000, up 4.8% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.
Market Shifts & Seller Strategies
Despite a sluggish market in the low and mid-price ranges, the luxury segment continues to prop up pricing and transaction volumes. However, the new home market share dipped to 22.5%, down from 23.0% a year ago.
New home builders have leveraged mortgage rate buy-down incentives for much of the past year to attract buyers. However, this advantage has eroded in recent months. Sellers of existing homes can compete by offering similar incentives; a strategy savvy agents can help with.
City-Level Market Movements
The data shows mixed conditions across the Valley:
✅ Strongest Markets: The Southeast Valley remains resilient, with Queen Creek, Mesa, Gilbert, and Goodyear seeing positive movement.
🔻 Fastest Declining Markets:
Fountain Hills: Down 20%
Maricopa: Down 15%
Paradise Valley: Down 12%
Other Declining Cities: Buckeye, Avondale, Cave Creek, and Glendale saw high single-digit declines.
Currently, the market breakdown is as follows:
8 cities remain seller’s markets
4 cities are balanced
5 cities have shifted to buyer’s markets
What’s Next?
Historically, buyer demand has increased after the Super Bowl, so sellers should remain optimistic as spring approaches. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, staying strategic and informed will be key to success in 2025.
*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the pending, active, and sold listing trends compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending February 7th, 2025
It was a crazy week for politics, and the markets saw 30-year mortgage rates drift closer to the 6s. The recent trends in inflation (PCE) were encouraging, but the BLS jobs report could set the tone for bond yields and mortgage rates over the coming weeks.
“Core” PCE (inflation) is flat at +2.8% YoY. While the “Headline” PCE did rise from +2.45% year-over-year in November 2024 to +2.55% in December (primarily due to higher fuel prices), “Core” PCE was flat at +2.79% YoY. But if you look closer, the monthly trend was very encouraging. [Bureau of Economic Analysis]
Over the last 6 months, “Core” PCE has risen by 1.13%. If you annualize that (multiplying by 2), you get 2.25%.
Over the last 3 months, “Core” PCE has risen by 0.54%. If you annualize that (multiplying by 4), you get 2.15%.
The Fed’s target for inflation is 2.00%, and when they talk about that target, they’re referring to the “Core” PCE. In other words, we’re getting close.
Job openings fell significantly. The JOLTs report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) revealed that total job openings had declined from 8.15 million in November to 7.60 million in December. The hiring rate was flat at 3.4%. The quits rate was also flat at 2.0%. Companies aren’t hiring much, and workers aren’t quitting much.
TP: The monthly job openings can have big swings (remember, the US has almost 340 million people). The most important thing is to look at the long term. The graph below shows that the COVID-driven hiring frenzy has ended, with job openings nearly returning to pre-pandemic levels. The quits rate, meanwhile, is already below pre-pandemic levels. Workers quit when there are more attractive opportunities(many job openings with higher pay).
Total job openings (JOLTs report)
Quits rate (% — JOLTs report)
Mortgage Market
Mortgage rates were briefly below 7%. Since hitting 7.25% in January, average 30-year mortgage rates have been drifting lower — not necessarily because the inflation or jobs data has supported higher bond prices (which means lower bond yields). Instead, we’ve had a ‘risk-off’ trade (from stocks into bonds) and, most recently, comments from the US Treasury that helped allay bond supply fears. [Mortgage News Daily]
We could get a good (lower than expected) January jobs report and/or a good (lower than expected) January CPI report. In that case, I’m confident that average 30-year mortgage rates would move back into the 6s — just in time for the spring selling season.
Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.
March 19 FOMC Meeting: 86% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50%. In other words, the Fed will stay on pause. 14% probability of a 25 bps cut (25 bps = 0.25% = a quarter percentage point) to 4.00–4.25%.
May 7 FOMC Meeting: 59% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50%. There is a 36% probability of a 25 bps rate cut.
You must attend the June 18 meeting before the probability of lower rates than today is greater than 50%.
Housing Market
Purchase mortgage applications fell 4% from the previous week, though they were flat from the same week a year ago.
Realtor.com reports that more sellers are offering price cuts. Last month, 15.6% of sellers dropped prices compared to 14.7% in January last year.
The NAHB says tariffs could push up new home prices.
Economy
The monthly JOLTs report showed a drop in job openings during December. Hiring, voluntary quits, and layoffs held steady.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Trump administration will focus on lowering the 10-year Treasury yield, which may help mortgage rates.
New tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, helping mortgage rates remain at current levels.
Weather
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