New Contracts Surge in Phoenix, Arizona, as Active Supply Drops 14% Since April.
- Brad Daniels
- Aug 18
- 5 min read
New Contracts Surge in Phoenix, Arizona,
as Active Supply Drops 14% Since April.
What does that mean for you? 🫵
For Buyers
Since April, active supply levels have declined 13.6%, driven by a surge in cancelled and expired listings from May through July and too few new listings to replace them. July cancellations were up 64% compared to last year, while expired listings increased 69%. On the demand side, conditions are starting to improve—mortgage rates have eased from 6.75% to 6.55%, and weekly accepted contracts are up 14% since the 4th of July.
While median sales prices remain flat compared to last year, asking prices are trending down when measured by price per square foot. Seller concessions are at record highs, with 56% of July sales including closing cost or rate buydown assistance—August is already hitting 58%.
The steepest asking-price declines are in condos and townhomes under $500K, down 5.9% year-over-year, compared to single-family homes under $500K, which are down just 1.3%. In July, buyers also negotiated additional discounts—2.5% below list on condos/townhomes and 1.3% on single-family homes.
Overall, buyers currently hold a substantial advantage, but the tide may be shifting. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has started to tick upward over the past 30 days as supply falls and demand stabilizes. If this trend continues, today’s buyer-friendly conditions may not last. Those looking to capitalize on seller concessions and minimal competition should act sooner rather than later. As affordability improves, more buyers will enter the market, and sellers will be less likely to accommodate every demand.
For Sellers
Although the market is beginning to improve, Greater Phoenix remains firmly in buyer’s territory, so patience is key. July and August are seeing a median of 48 days on market before contract—the highest for July in at least 11 years. Condos are facing even more challenging conditions, with a 69-day median, and condos under $250K stretching to 79 days.
Even as the buyer’s market eases, home prices won’t hit bottom until 3–6 months after the CMI reaches a balanced state. If balance occurs in October or November, that would point to prices bottoming out around February or March. Sellers weighing whether to wait should consider this tradeoff: homes may sell faster with fewer concessions in the future, but prices could be lower than what sellers might achieve today. In many cases, the savings on concessions may be offset by the lower sale price.
Longer-term appreciation is unlikely until the market shifts back into seller’s territory, which isn’t on the horizon yet.
There is, however, a potential wild card. National economists are raising the probability of a recession, with major banks such as Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank putting odds between 30% and 43%. If unemployment rises sharply, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates and ease monetary policy, which would push mortgage rates lower. Combined with today’s reduced home prices, this could increase buyer activity in the fourth quarter—providing some relief to sellers.
No one welcomes a recession, but ironically, it could be the spark that accelerates a housing market recovery.
Buying a Home With a Pool? Here’s What You Need to Know
Pools are a highly sought-after home feature, but they come with added responsibilities and costs. This past spring, nearly one in four listed homes included a pool—a record high, according to a realtor.com® analysis of April housing data.
What to Look for During a Walkthrough
Visual Issues
Keep an eye out for:
Loose tiles or missing grout
Green or discolored water
Low water levels (a possible leak)
Cracks in steps, walls, or the pool floor
Minor “hydration” or spider cracks are often cosmetic and can be repaired with just $10 in epoxy. The concern is deeper separation cracks—large enough to fit a penny—which may signal structural or underground issues that could cost thousands to fix.
Equipment Check
Ask the homeowner to turn on the pool equipment. Listen for high-pitched noises or signs that the system is struggling.
Coping Joint Inspection
Inspect the joint between the pool coping and the surrounding deck. If it hasn’t been properly sealed with mastic compound, water can seep behind the coping and damage the pool structure, especially in climates with freeze-thaw cycles.
Brad Recommends a Professional Inspection
Standard home inspections don’t usually cover pools. Many buyers schedule a specialized pool inspection. A qualified inspector can evaluate the shell, coping, deck, and equipment to identify cracks, leaks, or other issues.
Budget for Ongoing Maintenance
Pool ownership requires consistent upkeep, with annual costs typically ranging from $1,000 to $4,000 (Family Pool Maintenance). Many homeowners combine professional services with DIY tasks.
Does a Pool Add Resale Value?
Yes. A 2025 realtor.com® study found that homes with pools sold for a 54% premium—$599,000 versus $389,000 for homes without.
“During the pandemic, people were looking for ways to get more enjoyment out of their homes, which drove the so-called ‘pool premium,’” says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at realtor.com®. While that premium peaked in January 2022, pools continue to boost home values and remain a highly desirable feature, especially in Arizona.
5 Popular Pool Upgrades
Updating an older pool can improve resale value and enjoyment. Popular upgrades include:
Automation – Modern systems let owners manage cleaning, filtration, and chlorine levels directly from an app.
Energy Efficiency – Variable-speed pumps improve efficiency and reduce energy costs.
Water Features – Add-ons like waterfalls, bubblers, and jump rocks are increasingly popular.
Baja Steps/Tanning Ledges – Shallow ledges for lounging and sunbathing.
Modern Lighting – LED color-changing lights can refresh the look and feel of older pools.
✅ Bottom line: Pools add value and enjoyment, but buyers should carefully assess condition, budget for upkeep, and consider professional inspections before diving in.
Market in a Minute...National View
Housing Market
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.5% of total applications from 41.5% the previous week.
Purchase apps rose 1% for the week and 17% over last year. ICE’s August Mortgage Monitor reported 26 weeks of consecutive year-over-year gains.
ICE also reported year-over-year growth of 1.4% in single-family home prices in July. Condo prices fell 1.8%, the softest condo market since 2012.
Economy
Consumer inflation was slightly higher in July but still met expectations, ramping up markets' bets that the Fed would cut rates in September.
Wholesale inflation rose much more than expected in July, signaling tariff costs may trickle down to consumers in the coming months.
Markets are currently betting on Fed policy rate cuts to begin in September. Mortgage rates already reflect the market speculation.
East Valley Weather
Have a great week, everyone! Brad Daniels with RelocateToAZ.com