Phoenix, Arizona Market Update: Sellers Regain Momentum Despite Rate Pressure

Brad Daniels
Apr 6
5 min read

The Monday Real Estate Market Update text in orange and white on a blue background with a house icon. Date: April 6th, 2026.

Phoenix, Arizona Market Update: Sellers Regain Momentum Despite Rate Pressure

Market index table for April 2, 2026, showing rankings and changes for 18 areas. Green and red arrows indicate increases and decreases.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

March brought a noticeable jump in activity compared to February, but when you dig a little deeper, the story becomes more nuanced.

Closed transactions reached 7,268, up slightly from last year and significantly higher than February. At first glance, that looks like strong momentum—but March also had more working days, giving it a built-in advantage. When adjusted for that, closings per day actually dipped slightly year over year.

Where things really stand out is the split between new homes and resale homes:

The resale market is holding steady and showing resilience
New construction continues to lag—both in volume and pricing

This isn’t a short-term shift. We’ve now seen this trend play out consistently for months.

New Homes vs. Resales – A Clear Divide

New home sales made up just 17.1% of the market, the lowest share we’ve seen since mid-2022. That’s a pretty clear signal that buyers are leaning toward existing homes right now.

Pricing tells a similar story:

New home median price: down 4.5% year over year
Resale median price: down just 1.1% year over year

Even month-to-month, resale pricing showed some strength, while new builds softened again.

Bottom line—resale homes are outperforming new construction in this market, both in demand and pricing stability.

Pricing Trends & Market Segments

The overall median price came in at $481,370, slightly down from last year but up from February.

It’s also important to note:

The top end of the market continues to outperform, both in pricing and activity
Median prices don’t fully reflect that strength, since they’re less influenced by luxury sales

So while headlines may suggest softening, the reality depends heavily on price point and location.

Market Direction (Cromford Market Index* Update)

Looking at the Cromford® Market Index 9 CMI) trends:

10 cities are in seller’s markets (though 3 are considered weak)
2 cities are balanced
6 cities favor buyers

Cities like Goodyear, Tempe, Maricopa, and Fountain Hills saw the biggest shifts toward sellers, while Cave Creek and Gilbert continue to lean toward buyers.

Overall, the market is still gently favoring sellers, with the average CMI improving 2.8% week over week.

The Takeaway

This market isn’t one-size-fits-all right now.

Resale homes are carrying the market
New construction is feeling pressure
Higher-end homes continue to outperform
Seller advantage exists—but it’s not as strong or consistent across all areas

For buyers, there are opportunities—especially with new builds and in select cities.

For sellers, strategy and pricing matter more than ever. The homes that are positioned correctly are still moving.

If you’re thinking about making a move—or just want to understand how this impacts your specific situation—Brad is always happy to connect.

Have a great week ahead!

*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market

A Mixed Economic Picture: Strong Jobs Report, But Lingering Concerns

Job growth remained weak, but the market is still focused on the potential inflationary impact of the US/Iran conflict. Mortgage rates have eased recently, but they’re still higher than they were pre-war.

Before we begin…

On February 27, Mortgage News Daily reported average 30-year mortgage rates at 5.99%. The US/Iran conflict started on February 28. These dates are important because: 1) oil prices, US treasury yields, and mortgage rates moved up dramatically in March, so 2) any economic and real estate data for January and February is pre-war.

Some recent relief for mortgage rates

A combination of weak consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell eased market concerns that the Fed might actually RAISE rates at their April 29 meeting. Average 30-yr mortgage rates dropped from 6.64% on 3/27 to 6.45% on 4/1.

BLS Jobs Report (March 2026)

March job growth came in well above expectations, with 178,000 jobs added, versus the 60,000 forecast. January and February payrolls were revised slightly lower, while the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

BLS Jobs Report for March 2026 shows employment change graph, 178K gain, and 4.3% unemployment rate. Avg. earnings: 3.5%. Revisions: -7K.

ADP employment report was a slight beat. Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, above Wall Street expectations of around 40,000. But, as I’ve said before, anything less than 100K is basically no job growth for a nation our size. Moreover, most of the growth came from one sector: education/health services. ADP itself warned in a previous report that many of these jobs are low-paying.

Bar chart showing ADP monthly private employment changes from Mar 2025 to Mar 2026. Peaks in Sep 2025 and Oct 2025. Y-axis in thousands.

Bond and Mortgage Market

The rise in oil prices and the attendant risk of a reacceleration in inflation had markets worried that Fed members might vote to RAISE rates at the next FOMC meeting.

But over the last few days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the Fed can and should “look through” potentially short-term oil price movements. We also had a very weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, as well as lackluster job openings (JOLTS) and job growth (ADP) data.

No rate hike? That’s reassuring. But the market is still not pricing in any rate cuts in 2026 — despite consistently weak jobs growth data.

Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is currently 3.50–3.75%. The probabilities below come from the CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market.

• April 29 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability that the Fed Funds Rate target range is kept at 3.50–3.75% (was 94% last week). And…a 3% probability (was 6% a week ago) that the Fed will raise rates 25 basis points.

• June 17 FOMC Meeting: 94% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be kept at 3.50–3.75% (unchanged from last week). So, no rate cut at either the April or June meeting.

• No rate cut in 2026? If I look way out to the last FOMC meeting of the year (Dec 9), the market is pricing in a 73% probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be exactly where it is today. In other words, the market continues to price in NO rate cuts for the entirety of 2026. There is only a 22% probability that rates will be 25 basis points below the current.