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Listed by: Sasha Rahban with Douglas Elliman of California Real Estate Agent Who Grew Up in Real-Life ‘Fresh Prince of Bel-Air’ Mansion Lists $30 Million Home for First Time in 50 Years. The iconic Los Angeles mansion that took center stage in Will Smith 's hit sitcom "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" is available to buy for the first time in 50 years, to the tune of $29.5 million—having been listed by a real estate agent who was "born and raised" inside the home. For the last five decades, the property has been owned by the same family, who purchased it in 1978, 12 years before they were approached by producers seeking a dwelling to serve as the Banks family's home in "The Fresh Prince." The sitcom, which debuted in 1990 and starred Smith in the lead role, alongside Alfonso Ribeiro, Janet Hubert, and James Avery, focused on a young man's move from West Philadelphia to the tony community of Bel-Air , where he moved in with his wealthy relatives—putting the family firmly in the public eye. Fun Fact: the home itself is not located in Bel-Air, but rather 15 minutes down the road in Brentwood , where it was originally built in 1937. Bedrooms Bedrooms: 6 Bathrooms Total Bathrooms: 8 Full Bathrooms: 7 1/2 Bathrooms: 1 Other Rooms Bar Basement Breakfast Breakfast Area Family Room Formal Entry Great Room Guest-Maids Quarters In-Law Suite Jack And Jill Powder Primary Bedroom Separate Family Room Study/Office Library/Study Den Dining Room Dining Area Patio Open Living Room Walk-In Closet Appliances Laundry Features: Laundry Area, Inside, Room Heating and Cooling Cooling Features: Central Fireplace Features: Den, Library Heating Features: Central Heating: Yes Number Of Fireplaces: 2 Interior Features Interior Amenities: Primary Suite, Primary Bedroom, Walk-In Closet, Multi-Level Bedroom, 2 Primary Baths, Bidet, Double Vanity(S), Dual Entry (Jack & Jill) Bath, Powder Room, Shower And Tub, Steam Shower, Tub With Jets Furnished Description: Unfurnished Flooring: Wood, Tile, Carpet Kitchen and Dining Dining Area Description: Breakfast Area, Breakfast Counter / Bar, Breakfast Room, Dining Area, Family Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, In Kitchen, Kitchen Island Exterior Pool and Spa Pool Features: Waterfall, In-Ground, Heated With Gas, Heated Spa Features: Bath Tub, Heated With Gas, In-Ground Spa: Yes Land Info Lot Description: Back Yard, Automatic Gate, Front Yard, Value In Land, Street Lighting, Lawn Lot Size Acres: 0.8839 Lot Size Source: Assessor Lot Size Square Feet: 38510 Garage and Parking Garage Spaces: 3 Parking Features: Covered Parking, Driveway, Driveway - Combination, Driveway Gate, Garage - 3 Car, On Street, Parking For Guests, Private Home Features View: Pool, Trees/Woods, Tree Top Other Equipment: Alarm System, Antenna, Built-Ins, Cable, Garbage Disposal, Freezer, Electric Dryer Hookup, Dryer, Dishwasher, Ice Maker, Washer, Range/Oven, Refrigerator Security Features: Carbon Monoxide Detector(S), Automatic Gate, Exterior Security Lights, Fire And Smoke Detection System, Gated, Smoke Detection

Still a Buyer’s Market… Just a Little Less in Phoenix, Arizona As last week, 15 cities became more favorable for buyers over the past month, while the remaining 3 moved in a direction favorable for sellers. The latter group is Tempe, Gilbert, and Buckeye.   Leading the large group improving for buyers are Cave Creek, Peoria, and Avondale. All the other large cities that moved in favor of buyers did so by 6% or less.   The average change in Cromford Market Index (CMI)* was -2.6%, up from -2.8% last week. Though the trend still favors buyers, it has started to decelerate.   We have six cities in seller's markets, five in balanced markets, and seven in buyer's markets. The primary reason for the trend favoring buyers is that supply is moving higher. With mortgage rates drifting lower over the last week, demand is improving, but still at a slow pace so far. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market Behind the Headlines: What the Real Housing Data Says About Buyer Activity Average mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in more than a year, already boosting refi activity and bringing buyers off the sidelines. Wouldn’t it be a treat if the September CPI report showed lower-than-expected inflation?   Consumer Price Index (Sep 2025) September inflation came in slightly better than expected: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% year-over-year, while Core CPI eased to 3%. The Fault in our SAARs?   The media loves writing stories like “the fall in mortgage rates has failed to bring buyers off the sidelines.” And, to be fair, the 4.06 million units (SAAR) figure we just got for September 2025 existing home sales seems to support those clickbait headlines. After all, we’ve been selling homes at a 4 million unit annual pace for most of the last three years.   But what if I told you that the non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA, or “raw”) figure for existing home sales was up 8.2% year-over-year in September?! As a reminder, the “raw” data is the actual monthly sales figure. The market actually sold 357,000 existing homes in September 2025. To turn that into a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR), you apply an adjustment factor (to account for seasonality) and then multiply that by 12 (months of the year).   Typically, in September, NSA existing-home sales fall by 10–15% month over month. It’s a seasonal thing. Happens every year. But in September 2025, they only fell 5.1% MoM. In other words, they fell by much less than normal seasonality would predict.   If not for an adjustment in the seasonal adjustment factor (SAF) used to calculate the seasonally-adjusted pace, the SAAR rate for existing home sales in September could have easily been 4.2 million.   So, we’re actually seeing more of a mortgage-rate-fall-driven increase in activity than is apparent in the SAAR figures.   2024:Sept NSA Sales: 330KSAF: 0.98Sept SAAR: (330K X 0.98 X 12) = 3.9m   2025:Sept NSA Sales: 357K (+8.2% YoY as above)SAF: 0.95Sept SAAR: (357K X 0.95 X 12) = 4.07m   You might think “0.95 vs. 0.98, who cares?” but if you instead use 0.98 for the Sept 2025 figure, you get 4.2 million SAAR — which would have been up 8% YoY and beat Wall Street estimates.   Moreover, as we move into October and especially November, the SAFs start to really boost the SAAR figure.  So if we get an increase in the NSA figures in those months (or at least a smaller seasonal decline), we could get a 4.3 or 4.4 million SAAR print EASY.   Bond and Mortgage Market   The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Bond has stayed below 4% (at one point last week, it was 3.95%), and average mortgage rates (according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey) have dropped to 6.19% — the lowest rate in over a year. Remember: at the beginning of 2025, average rates were over 7%!   There is a wide range of opinion on where mortgage rates go from here. Barry Habib, the CEO & Founder of our parent company, MBS Highway, thinks that mortgage rates will continue to trend down as the Fed cuts rates, and could go as low as 5.5%. But the majority of forecasters believe rates will stay between 6–7% for the remainder of this year and on into 2026.   Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   October 29 FOMC Meeting:  99% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (same as last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  92% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (was 97% last week). In other words, a third 25 bps rate cut on December 10. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Falling mortgage rates prompted buyers to act in September. Existing home sales rose 1.5% to reach a 7-month high. The median existing home price last month grew 2.1% year over year to $415,200. Inventory rose to 4.6 months, up from 4.2 months a year ago Purchase apps fell 0.3% for the week but were 20% higher than the same time last year. Refi apps grew by 4% for the week and 81% year over year. Economy The government shutdown drags on, stalling key economic reports and leaving the Fed and markets short on fresh data. Markets still expect the Fed to cut its policy rate at next week's meeting, and investors anticipate a 3rd rate cut this year in December. Consumers expect to spend $890 per person on the holidays this year, down from $902 in 2024, per a National Retail Federation survey. Hi, I’m Brad Daniels, your neighbor and the valley's real estate expert. I’ve been helping Arizona families make smart moves for over 25 years — and I’d love to help you next! #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad (602) 679-1025

This Quarter Belongs to Buyers in Phoenix, Arizona For Buyers Mortgage rates dropped over 2 months from July 15th (6.85%) to September 16th (6.1%), dropping payments by 7.5% across the board and reaching the lowest rate in over a year. Real estate professionals swung open the gates and awaited a stampede of buyers to arrive. But, while there was a wave of refinances, purchase applications were stubborn. This is a common phenomenon. While rates are actively dropping, it’s human nature to wait and see where they stabilize before taking action, hoping to save even just a few extra dollars off a payment. Rates ultimately bounced and settled around 6.3%, and after 3 weeks of stability buyer activity finally ticked up to a level better than the past three years for October.   Mortgage rates weren’t the only measure dropping over the past 5 months, so were list prices. Listings under $1M saw asking prices drop an average of 2.5% from May to August, then stabilize in September and October. These properties do not yet have contracts on them, but when they do they will likely be closing in November and December, and possibly at the lowest closing price recorded all year.   The biggest price declines have been seen in the first-time homebuyer price ranges. Since July, sales prices for condos between $250K-$300K in Maricopa County (around 1,000sqft) have dropped 4.3% and are 15% below the peak prices of 2022. Single family homes in Pinal County between $300K-$400K (around 1,700sqft) are down 6.7% from last April, and are also 15% down from the peak of 2022. Single family homes in Maricopa County between $300K-$400K (around 1,500sqft) are down 2.9% from last year and down 13% from the peak of 2022. All of this is happening while the overall median price measure is showing just a mild increase year-over-year for the metro area, and just 4.5% below the peak of 2022. This is a prime example of how broad price measures spanning a large area are not always reflective of specific segments and can be skewed by better performing areas and price ranges.   Seller-paid concessions hit another high for September with 56% of MLS closings involving some form of closing cost assistance at a median cost of $10,000, which often includes a temporary rate buydown. This has been a unique hallmark of this housing cycle since rates skyrocketed in 2022. A tool typically used by builders to incentivize buyers has been adopted by everyday sellers and lenders in the resale market in order to compete. As appreciation has been stunted for the past 3-4 years and values declined this year, the number of sellers who can shoulder the cost of these incentives may diminish going forward.   If lower prices, lower mortgage rates, and a high share of seller incentives isn’t enough, seasonally the 4th quarter is the best time to be a buyer in Greater Phoenix. Supply tends to rise right before the holidays, but the rush of buyers doesn’t follow until after the 1st of the year. As a result, there’s a last hurrah of price reductions before Thanksgiving followed by heavier price negotiations and builder incentives as sellers aim to get under contract or close before the end of the year.   It’s common for buyers to get caught up waiting for evidence that it’s the “perfect time” to act, and delaying an affordable purchase in order to land some unicorn price and mortgage rate. Real estate is typically a long-term investment, however. The longer one holds a property, the more equity is built, appreciation accumulated, and risk of loss mitigated.   For Sellers  This year has been a slog for sellers (and their agents) to say the least with stock market fluctuations at the beginning of the year stalling luxury sales, and volatility in mortgage rates. But there are signs things have gotten better. Lower mortgage rates and lower prices have stimulated demand in unexpected places. While homebuyer demand between $300K-$500K has been anemic, homes between $500K-$1.5M saw a boost of sales in September, up 19% year-over-year, which increased the market share from 36% to 38% of sales, and increased both the median price and average price per square foot measures for the Valley. The reason could be linked to jumbo mortgage rates dropping below 30-year conventional rates for the first time in 2 years, but also the popularity among high-wage buyers of adjustable-rate mortgages, which are currently averaging 5.8%. While Greater Phoenix remains in a buyer’s market overall, the Northeast Valley including Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, and Scottsdale are top seller’s markets, reflecting a drop in supply and sustained demand in these cities. Also seller’s markets: Anthem, El Mirage, Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Sun Lakes. Balanced markets include Phoenix, Glendale, Sun City West, Tolleson, Mesa, and Tempe. Buyer’s markets are mostly on the edges and outskirts where there is more new home development. They include Peoria (barely), Sun City, Surprise, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, Laveen, Buckeye, Gold Canyon, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Arizona City, and Casa Grande.   The 4th quarter is not the best time to be a seller, but going in with the right mindset, patience, and price strategy will go a long way towards obtaining a contract before the end of the year. For those who wish to wait, the 1st quarter comes with both a wave of new competing listings from January through March, and increased contract activity that lasts through May. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Arizona’s Business Boom: A State Moving at the Speed of Innovation Phoenix and the surrounding cities in Arizona continues to prove why it’s one of the most dynamic and business-friendly states in the nation. The Arizona Commerce Authority recently shared some impressive updates highlighting how our state’s strong economic foundation and forward-thinking policies are fueling growth across industries—from manufacturing and logistics to data centers and semiconductor innovation.   World-Class Business Climate Arizona offers a powerful combination of advantages for both established companies and new investments. With a sunny, steady, and predictable business climate, our state delivers: Lower taxes and a streamlined regulatory environment Modern infrastructure connecting global markets through air, rail, and highway systems Top talent and a growing workforce supported by leading universities and technical programs   Economic Highlights #1 Most Competitive State in the Mountain Region (Site Selection Magazine, 2025) Top 4 Best State for Business (Chief Executive Magazine, 2024) 2.5% Flat Income Tax — the lowest in the U.S. 4.9% Corporate Tax Rate — among the lowest nationwide No franchise, inventory, estate, or gross receipts taxes   Driving Innovation Arizona’s leadership in advanced manufacturing and semiconductors continues to attract global attention. Events like Arizona Semiconductor Leadership Day and expansions in logistics, R&D, and data centers underscore our role as a hub for next-generation technology and investment.   Smart Growth & Sustainable Future Even with record development, Arizona continues to prioritize secure water management—storing nearly 3 trillion gallons underground for future use and requiring developers to prove a 100-year water supply before building. That balance of growth and sustainability keeps our communities strong and our economy resilient.   With over 456 projects, 127,000+ jobs, and nearly $180 billion in capital investment in the pipeline, Arizona is truly moving at the speed of business. The Calm After the Cut: Treasury Yields Dip, Mortgage Rates Edge Toward 6% The data vacuum continues with the ongoing shutdown. We didn’t get retail sales this week, but we will get CPI next week. Meanwhile, commentary from Jerome Powell and other Fed members helped 10-year treasury yields drop below 4% and 30-year mortgage rates approach 6%.  Let’s take a look.   Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Minutes from the Fed’s September 17 meeting highlight differing views among officials on the direction of interest rates, the pace of inflation, and the strength of the labor market.   At that meeting, the Fed delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut – its first of the year – after holding rates steady through its previous five meetings. The move reflects the Fed's ongoing effort to balance persistent inflation with growing concerns about a weakening labor market. Reminder: The Fed Funds Rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. While it doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it influences borrowing costs across the economy.   What’s the bottom line?   The Fed is navigating a tough balancing act: inflation remains above target, but economic momentum is clearly slowing. High inflation limits the Fed’s ability to cut rates, while signs of softness – especially in jobs – may prompt more action.   Chair Jerome Powell underscored the complexity, saying there’s “no risk-free path” as the Fed weighs its next move.   Complicating matters further, the government shutdown has delayed key inflation and employment reports the Fed typically relies on – leaving policymakers with less data and even less consensus heading into the next meeting on October 29.   Powell says QT could stop soon Quantitative tightening (the Fed selling assets) is the reverse of quantitative easing (the Fed buying assets). QE was about bidding up bond prices to keep yields/interest rates lower to support the economy. QT has been about unwinding that stimulus, and that exerts a downward influence on bond prices and keeps yields higher than they might be otherwise. QT has been happening since 2022. Powell suggested it could end in the next few months. He also had the following to say about QE:   “With the clarity of hindsight, we could have — and perhaps should have — stopped asset purchases sooner.” — Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman   Why Homeownership Remains a Smart Investment According to Cotality’s latest Home Price Insights report, home values declined by just 0.3% in August. However, they were still up 1.3% year-over-year – a slight slowdown from July’s 1.4% annual growth. Meanwhile, ICE’s data for September showed a 0.17% monthly increase in home prices (seasonally adjusted), with a 1.2% annual gain – up from 1% in August. This marked the first acceleration in home price appreciation in eight months, signaling renewed strength in the market.   What’s the bottom line?  Home prices are always driven by supply and demand, and both sides are currently contributing to market strength. On the demand side, falling mortgage rates have helped improve affordability to the best levels in 2.5 years, according to ICE. This has brought more buyers back into the market, as seen in the uptick in contract signings for both new and existing homes, as well as increased mortgage application activity. Many of these buyers represent pent-up demand that had been waiting for more favorable conditions.   On the supply side, inventory is tightening. ICE has reported a decline in new listings along with an increase in sellers pulling their homes off the market. With more buyers entering and fewer homes available, these conditions are putting upward pressure on prices.   Looking ahead, Cotality forecasts a 3.9% increase in home values over the next 12 months. This outlook likely reflects expectations for continued lower rates, strong underlying demand, and tighter inventory levels heading into the fall and winter.   Real estate remains one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth. For example, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% annually would gain $20,000 in just one year – underscoring the strong return potential of homeownership.   Bond and Mortgage Market As I write this note, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has moved below 4%. If we apply the historically typical spread of 1.5%-2.0% (between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10Y UST), we’d get a 30-yr mortgage rate estimate of 5.5%-6.0%. We’re at 6.27% today. I have zero doubt that mortgage rates in the 5% range would bring life roaring back into the housing market — which has been stuck at 4 million unit sales pace for nearly 3 years.   Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities come from CME Group website and are implied from the Fed Funds Rate futures market. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  99% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (was 95% last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  97% probability that rates will be at least 50 bps below current (was 82% last week). 57% probability that rate will be 75 bps below current — in other words, a 25 bps cut on October 29 and a 50 bps cut on December 10. A jumbo rate cut in December? Now that’s new! Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market According to ICE, the average credit score for purchasers locking their rates was 736 in September, the highest in 6 years of tracking. Purchase apps fell for the 3rd straight week but remain 20% above last year as rising inventory keeps some buyers engaged. In a Realtor.com  survey, 82% of Gen Z respondents believed homebuying is harder for their generation. Affordability was the top life concern for 18%. Economy After a few months of calm, tensions between the U.S. and China reignited in recent weeks, sparking new concerns over trade and tariffs. The government shutdown is in its 3rd week with no end in sight, limiting key data on the labor market and economy. Fed Chair Powell said quantitative tightening might wrap up soon, potentially limiting the supply of mortgage bonds and driving down rates. Weather Helping people move to (or from) the desert is my specialty! If you know someone thinking of relocating to Arizona — maybe escaping the snow or chasing more sunshine — send them my way. I’ll help make their transition smooth and stress-free. ☀️ Real estate advice, relocation tips, and warm Arizona welcomes — that’s what I do best. #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad

The Buyer’s Window Is Closing: Market Shift Ahead in Greater Phoenix, Arizona The first thing to note this week is that our tracking now includes 18 major cities. We’ve officially separated Queen Creek (85142) from San Tan Valley (85140, 85143, 85144), as their boundaries have become more defined and San Tan Valley has grown into the largest town in Pinal County.   The second—and perhaps most telling—change is visual: a sea of red dots has returned to the table. After several weeks of seller momentum, the market has shifted back in favor of buyers. Over the past month, 11 cities moved in a direction favorable to buyers, while 7 became more favorable for sellers.   Among the seller-leaning cities are Tempe, Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek, and Scottsdale—with Tempe and Gilbert seeing the most notable gains (over 5%). Fountain Hills and Peoria also trended slightly toward sellers, though by negligible margins.   Leading the pack for buyers are Cave Creek and Paradise Valley, followed by Avondale. For most other cities, shifts were minor (3% or less), but the overall trend is clear: the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* fell 1.1%, down from +0.4% last week—a sign that this softening will likely continue through mid-November.   We now see seven cities in seller’s markets, four in a balanced market, and seven in a buyer’s market.   Meanwhile, mortgage rates remain stable, hovering between 6.34% and 6.38%, according to Mortgage News Daily. However, that level isn’t low enough to spark meaningful demand. Active listings without a contract rose 1.85% over the past week and will soon exceed 25,000. Including CCBS and UCB statuses, that number climbs to nearly 28,000—a clear signal that inventory is stacking up.   Across most price points, sellers would benefit from less competition. Entry-level supply now far outpaces demand, leaving first-time buyers in a strong negotiating position—if they have the right guidance. At the opposite end, luxury demand remains steady, buoyed by gains in stocks, crypto, and precious metals. However, if those markets falter, expect a swift decline in high-end demand and a corresponding surge in supply.   Even homebuilders are pulling back after seeing August’s buyer enthusiasm fade. Many are quietly offering price cuts and incentives on quick-move-in homes to avoid overbuilding. Public builder stock prices have dropped sharply over the past week—a reflection of the caution among investors. *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Data Blackout: Markets Navigate Without Jobs or Inflation Reports We find ourselves in a data vacuum. No BLS jobs report last week. Maybe no CPI report next week. However, mortgage rates are holding steady near 6.3%, and the market is still expecting two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.   No BLS jobs data last Friday.  Thanks to the government shutdown, the BLS employment report for September wasn’t released. Was the analysis at least finished? Has Jerome Powell seen the data? We don’t know. Separately, the Carlyle Group (a giant investor) said that it estimated that the US economy added just 17,000 jobs in September, well below Wall Street expectations of +54,000. [ADP, Carlyle Group]   As a reminder, the BLS reported 22,000 jobs added in August, while ADP reported 32,000 net job losses in September.   2026 Federal Income Tax Brackets   Good news for future filers: Tax brackets and standard deductions are going up for 2026, which could mean potential tax savings when you file in April 2027. Bond and Mortgage Market Average 30-year mortgage rates got as low as 6.13% in mid-September before quickly rebounding to ~6.30%. And they’ve hovered around those levels for the last three weeks. In the absence of official government data, the market has taken its cues from: 1) private data sources like ADP (generally evidencing a weaker job market), and 2) moves in international bond yields (generally higher).   We are scheduled to receive the September CPI (inflation) data next Wednesday, but this may not occur if the government shutdown continues.   Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   October 29 FOMC Meeting:  95% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down slightly from 99% last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  82% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down slightly from 87% last week). In other words, a third 25 bps rate cut on December 10. Markets in a Minute...National View Housing Market Purchase mortgage applications decreased 1% for the week but remained 14% higher than the same week a year ago. Adjustable-rate mortgages have increased slightly in popularity. ARMs made up 9.5% of applications last week, up from 8.4% the previous week. AI-enhanced listing photos enable agents to "virtually stage" homes at a fraction of the normal cost, but they are raising concerns about transparency. Economy Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed that officials largely agreed a recent slowdown in the labor market outweighed concerns about inflation. The government shutdown continues this week, delaying key economic reports and making private-sector data even more important to markets. Gold hit a new high and surged past $4,000/oz as investors fled risk, seeking safety amid market volatility and speculation about the Fed's policy rate cut. Weather I truly appreciate your continued referrals — they mean the world to me. If you’re thinking about relocating to Arizona or selling your home, let’s connect and make your next move a success. Brad Daniels | East Valley Real Estate Team 📞 (602) 679-1025 | 🌐 www.RelocateToAZ.com

Market perks up in Phoenix — But sellers, don’t celebrate just yet, as the affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County’s September filings, and the results paint an interesting picture of a market that’s shifting ever so slightly in favor of sellers — but only just. S ales Activity   September saw 5,933 closed transactions, a 6.3% increase from September 2024 (5,494) and up 1.0% from August. Of these: 1,313 were new homes, down 8.9% year over year but up slightly (0.2%) from August. 4,620 were resale homes, up 11.5% from last year and 1.2% from August.   While September 2025 had a slight advantage with 21 working days (compared to 20 last year), meaning more opportunities to process closings, the increase in resale activity is still notable. Higher-end resale homes re-emerged after a quiet summer between June and August.   Pricing Trends   Median sales prices bounced back in September: Overall median: $488,772 — up 3.6% from last year and 2.9% from August. New home median: $532,645 — up 2.7% year over year but down 0.4% from August. Resale median: $470,000 — up 4.4% year over year and 4.5% from July.   In short, resale prices are gaining momentum over new homes, signaling renewed buyer confidence in the existing housing stock.   Market Dynamics   Between September 2 and October 2, the market nudged slightly in favor of sellers. The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI) was +0.4%, continuing a slowdown from +3.1% the previous week and +5.9% the week before.   Interest rates provided the market with a temporary boost in early September, with the 30-year fixed loan reaching a low of 6.13% on September 16. However, rates jumped to 6.36% after September 17, tempering buyer enthusiasm and allowing inventory to follow its normal seasonal increase.   Over the past five weeks, new listings have been plentiful, adding to active supply levels across the Valley.   Market by City   Over the last month, 11 cities have shifted in favor of sellers, while six have shifted in favor of buyers. Notably, Buckeye and Avondale were the two that switched sides since last week.   However, zooming in to just the past seven days, the momentum has tilted back toward buyers — 14 cities moved in favor of buyers, while only three (Tempe, Mesa, and Gilbert) managed gains for sellers, all located in the Southeast Valley.   As of now: 7 cities are in seller’s markets (3 only barely). 4 cities remain balanced. 6 cities sit in a buyer’s market territory.   The Bottom Line   Despite a modest September uptick, the Greater Phoenix market remains finely balanced. Sellers are regaining slight leverage, especially in select areas of the Southeast Valley, but rising inventory and modestly higher rates are keeping conditions in check.   Buyers still have opportunities—particularly in markets that have softened—and motivated sellers are adjusting accordingly. The next few weeks will determine whether this small seller-side advantage holds or fades as we move deeper into fall. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 10/02/2025 The government shutdown was the big headline of the past week.  So let’s take a look at that and some other key points…   The government shutdown has delayed key economic data, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report and weekly unemployment claims. The BLS report was expected to play a key role in shaping the Fed’s next rate decision at its October 29 meeting. This delay comes at a critical time, as the Fed weighs two competing forces: inflation that remains above target, and growing signs of a slowing economy. In its absence, the ADP Employment Report carries more weight than usual – and the latest numbers showed clear signs of softening. ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, missing expectations for a 50,000-job gain. Job losses were broad-based, with seven out of ten sectors reporting declines. August’s report was also revised down sharply, from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000-job loss.   If the shutdown continues, it may delay key inflation reports that the Fed also relies on when determining monetary policy.   How the government shutdown could impact your home loan or closing The federal government shutdown is already affecting key parts of the housing market – and if you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, here’s what you need to know.   Several government-backed programs are facing delays or suspensions: USDA rural home loans are currently paused. FHA and VA loans are still being processed, but reduced staffing could slow down approvals and appraisals. The IRS may be delayed in processing tax transcripts, which is a common requirement for many mortgages.   Another concern is the pause of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), managed by FEMA. However, there are private flood insurance alternatives available, like Neptune, that could provide coverage options. While I don’t expect this to cause real issues in the loan process, and I don’t expect this shutdown to last that long, it is something to be aware of.   JOLTs — Nothing shocking Job openings were pretty much flat in August at 7.2 million. Both the hiring rate (3.2%) and the quits rate (1.9%) were at/near 10 year lows. This ‘no hire/no fire’ environment speaks to the lack of confidence of both employers (of strong growth ahead) and employees (of being able to find a higher-paying job). [BLS]   ADP — Jobs going backwards Giant payroll processor ADP reported that private employers LOST a net 32,000 jobs in September. That was way below expectations for 45,000 in job GAINS. In addition, the jobs number for August was revised down from +54,000 to -3,000. That means that the number of jobs has declined in three out of the last four months. Is this the ‘solid’ job market Fed Chairman Jerome Powell keeps talking about? [ADP] Bond and Mortgage Market   Given all the issues with the BLS jobs report (consistently large, negative revisions), the ADP report was already becoming more important. But with the September BLS jobs report release delayed by the government shutdown, the weaker-than-expected ADP report became the primary market mover during ‘jobs week’. Effectively, the ADP report convinced the market (once again) that the Fed will cut rates at each of the last two meetings of the year.   Note: The Fed Funds Rate policy range is now 4.00–4.25%. These probabilities are sourced from the CME Group website and are implied by the Fed Funds Rate futures market.   October 29 FOMC Meeting: 99% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 86% last week). In other words, a second 25 bps rate cut on October 29. December 10 FOMC Meeting: 87% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (way up from 65% last week). In other words, a third 25 bps rate cut on December 10. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Pending sales of existing homes increased solidly in August to the highest level in 5 months, helped along by lower mortgage rates. Data suggests home price growth is cooling nationwide. Appreciation is decelerating amid affordability pressure. Real estate transactions that rely on government services, such as tax record confirmation, may be delayed during government closures. Economy According to ADP, private payrolls experienced their largest decline in 2 1/2 years in September, a sign of weakening labor market conditions. Despite essential services remaining open, the government shutdown means key reports, including Friday’s jobs report, will not be released. Markets are already betting that the shutdown will contribute to weakening the economy. There's increasing speculation of further Fed rate cuts. East Valley Weather Have a great week - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025 #RelocateToAz #CallBradToSellYourPad

I’m excited to share some great news — my buyers are officially under contract  on a beautiful home in the Arroyo Verde  community of Apache Junction! 🎉 This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers over 1,600 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, complete with a desirable split floor plan, updated tile and carpet, and a kitchen equipped with included appliances. Sitting on a spacious 7,200+ sq. ft. lot  with low-maintenance desert landscaping, this property is perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. But here’s the best part: no HOA!  🙌 That means more freedom and flexibility to enjoy the property the way you want. My buyers were able to secure this home at a fantastic value, and I couldn’t be happier for them as they move one step closer to closing day. Why Buyers Love Apache Junction Apache Junction continues to attract buyers for its affordability, wide-open views of the Superstition Mountains, and welcoming community atmosphere. With quick access to the US-60 and nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, it’s the perfect mix of convenience and lifestyle. Thinking About Making a Move? If you’ve been considering buying a home in the East Valley — whether it’s Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, or Apache Junction — now is a great time to start your search. Opportunities like this don’t last long, and with the right strategy, you can land a great deal, too. 👉 Ready to start your home search? Contact me today and let’s find your dream home. 📲 Brad Daniels | East Valley Real Estate Team 🌐 www.relocatetoaz.com #CallBradToSellYourPad

Sold with multiple offers! Located in the desirable Lesueur Estates neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, + den, 2-bath  home offers  1,604 sq. ft.  of living space. Whether you’re a savvy investor or a buyer ready to roll up your sleeves, this property is a blank canvas with instant equity potential . Investor Special  in a sought-after East Mesa location Spacious living and dining areas Long-term rental for the past 20 years — ready for updates Low HOA Close to US-60, top-rated schools, dining, and shopping This home is priced to reflect its condition, but the bones are solid and the location is a winner. 🤝 Relationships Matter This referral marks another connection from California to Arizona  — a trend that continues to grow as more families, retirees, and investors look to make a move or diversify their portfolios. I’m proud to be the agent that agents trust when their clients are heading to the Valley. Barbara, your trust means the world to me. Your clients have been a joy to work with, and I’m grateful for your continued partnership. 💬 Thinking About Moving to AZ? Whether you’re relocating, investing, or helping a client transition into the Arizona market, or looking for an investor special in Mesa, AZ, let’s connect. I’d love to show you why so many California buyers — and their agents — choose to work with me. For more information on this home, click here! 📲 Brad Daniels Mesa Native | Arizona Real Estate Expert My Home Group 📞 (602) 679-1025 🌐 www.relocatetoaz.com 📧 brad@homeselleraz.com #CallBradToSellYourPad

One of the most common questions homebuyers and sellers ask is: “When the Fed cuts rates, why don’t mortgage rates drop right away?” It’s a smart question—and the answer comes down to the difference between short-term rates  (set by the Federal Reserve) and long-term mortgage interest rates  (like the 30-year fixed). The Role of the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates , which impact: Credit cards Auto loans Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) So, when you see a Fed rate cut, you’ll notice faster changes in these types of borrowing costs. Mortgage Rates Work Differently Mortgage rates, especially the 30-year fixed rate, are not directly tied to the Fed. Instead, they’re shaped by: Inflation expectations  – Higher inflation tends to push mortgage interest rates higher. Bond markets  – Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) drive the cost of borrowing for long-term loans. Investor sentiment  – Often, markets adjust before the Fed even makes a move. 👉 Example: Recently, mortgage rates dipped before  a Fed rate cut because investors had already priced in the expectation. Do Mortgage Rates Ever Rise After a Fed Cut? Surprisingly, yes. Here’s why: It’s investor-driven, not Fed-driven.  Mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed’s short-term rate. Money shifts into Treasuries.  A cut often drives investors into safer assets, which usually lowers yields—but not always. Inflation fears.  If markets worry that a cut will fuel inflation, yields can rise, pushing mortgage rates up. Short-term volatility.  Mortgage rates sometimes jump right after a Fed move, before settling down later. Bottom Line for Arizona Buyers & Sellers Fed rate cuts = immediate effect on short-term loans. Mortgage rates = shaped by inflation, bonds, and investor expectations. If you’re considering buying or refinancing in Arizona, don’t assume a Fed cut guarantees lower mortgage rates. Instead, watch the broader economic picture, and connect with a trusted advisor who can help you time your move. 📌 Takeaway:  Fed decisions matter, but mortgage rates dance to their own tune. Knowing the difference helps you make smarter real estate and financing choices. Questions? Call Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team with My Home Group. (602) 679-1025 | www.RelocateToAz.com

Relocating to Arizona: Why So Many Are Making the Move from California and Beyond! If you’ve been thinking about relocating to Arizona, you’re not alone. Thousands of families, professionals, and retirees are making the move every year—and not just from one place. In fact, Arizona is consistently one of the top relocation destinations for people from California, Washington, Illinois, New York, and Colorado. But let’s be real—California leads the way, especially Los Angeles County and Ventura County. From the buzzing heart of Los Angeles  to the charming neighborhoods of Pasadena and Altadena , and the coastal luxury of Malibu , more and more Californians are discovering that Arizona offers the lifestyle, affordability, and opportunity they’re looking for. Why Californians (Especially Angelenos) Are Choosing Arizona The reasons are clear: Affordability:  Home prices in Los Angeles and Ventura counties continue to skyrocket, while Arizona offers spacious homes at a fraction of the cost. Lifestyle Upgrade:  Arizona’s communities—such as Gilbert, Mesa, Chandler, and Queen Creek—offer family-friendly neighborhoods, modern amenities, and ample room to grow. Commute and Connectivity:  With two major airports (Phoenix Sky Harbor and Mesa Gateway), weekend trips back to L.A. or Malibu beaches are easy. Outdoor Living:  Arizona’s sunshine, golf courses, lakes, and mountain trails provide the perfect backdrop for an active lifestyle. For someone accustomed to morning drives along the  Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu  or Sunday brunch in  Old Town Pasadena , Arizona offers a refreshing blend of modern convenience and natural beauty—without the constant congestion of California traffic. New Homes with RV Garages starting in the mid-700's. Contact Us for more information. Other Top States Making the Move While California leads the pack, Arizona also welcomes new residents from: Washington:  Seeking sunshine and relief from constant rain, many Washingtonians trade Seattle skies for Arizona’s year-round warmth. Illinois:  Escaping Midwest winters, families from Chicago and beyond appreciate Arizona’s outdoor living and booming job market. New York City:  Professionals from the Big Apple are drawn to Arizona’s growing tech scene, lower cost of living, and remote-work-friendly lifestyle. Colorado:  With similar mountain views but more affordability, many Coloradans find Arizona’s desert climate and real estate market appealing. Why Arizona Is Calling You If you’ve ever dreamed of a fresh start, a larger home, or simply more financial freedom, Arizona could be the perfect move. Imagine trading long commutes on the 405 for afternoons spent on the golf course, or swapping high property taxes for a backyard pool with room for entertaining. Arizona isn’t just a new place to live—it’s a chance to build a lifestyle that works for you. And if you’re relocating from Los Angeles, Pasadena, Altadena, or Malibu , you’ll find familiar touches of culture, dining, and community—without the California price tag. Ready to Make the Move? As a Mesa native and local real estate expert, I’ve helped countless families transition from California and beyond into Arizona homes that fit their lifestyle and goals. Whether you’re relocating for work, retirement, or simply seeking a change of pace, I’d be delighted to help you explore your options. 📲 Call or text me today at (602) 679-1025  or visit RelocateToAZ.com  to download my free Arizona Relocation Guide. Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team Let’s make your Arizona dream a reality. #RelocateToAz

As the Market Turns: Could a Recession be Good for Housing in Phoenix, Arizona? For Buyers   Be aware, the market is turning. Reading the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* for Greater Phoenix, a measure under 90 is a buyer’s market, and 90-110 is a balanced market. Our index has been indicating a buyer’s market since November 2024 and reached its bottom at a measure of 72 before turning in mid-July. Two months later, as of September 11th, the CMI is up 9 points to 81. At this rate, it could surpass 90 and enter a balanced state by November, potentially ending a year-long buyer’s market and stabilizing prices.   Buyers may not have as much time as they think to purchase under the favorable negotiating conditions of a buyer’s market. Asking prices for homes have been declining for 4 months, but appear to have stalled over the past week. Mortgage rates in January were 7.26% according to Mortgage News Daily, and by September 11th, they had averaged 6.27%, representing a nearly full percentage point change. Meanwhile, active mid-range listings between $300,000 and $600,000 have dropped nearly 2% in asking price.   What does this mean?  Let’s do the math. With every 1% drop in mortgage rate, all principal and interest payment measures across all loan amounts drop by 10%. So if a buyer was quoted a $2,400 monthly payment in January on a $350,000 loan at 7.26%, that PI payment would be $2,160 at 6.26%, saving $240/month. Combine that with a 2% drop in the asking price of the home, which saves an additional 2% off the payment, bringing the total savings to $288 and a payment of $2,112, representing a 12% discount compared to January.   That’s not all. In this buyer’s market, more than 60% of sales between $225,000 and $600,000 have sellers paying for the buyer’s closing costs, which often include a 2/1 rate buydown. This reduces the buyer’s payment by an additional 20% in the first year and 10% in the second, resulting in a first-year payment of $1,690 and a second-year payment of $1,900, before taxes and insurance.   Over the next few months, sales prices are expected to begin showing a decline, which active list prices have already experienced. However, if mortgage rates stay low and the Cromford® Market Index continues to climb out of a buyer’s market, buyers may see their negotiating advantage dwindle. For now, all properties are officially “on sale”. For Seller   Headlines about the economy are quite alarming these days, with recession predictions reaching as high as a 93% probability from UBS last week. These are based on a continuous stream of weak job reports and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% reported on September 5th. Ironically, history tells us that as the labor market weakens and recession looms, mortgage rates improve and homebuyer demand increases. In fact, in Greater Phoenix, home sales actually increased over the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions despite high unemployment.   How can this be?  As fears of a recession rise, accompanied by increased unemployment, demand for bonds increases as people move their funds to safety. This pushes the 10-year Treasury rate down, which in turn lowers the 30-year mortgage rate. Even with higher unemployment rates, the vast majority of people are still employed. Those who are stable in their employment see an increase in their ability to qualify when mortgage rates decline and are motivated to explore their options, thus increasing demand.   Buyers are not the only ones who get excited over lower mortgage rates; sellers do, too. This means that while demand is increasing, more listings than expected may initially hit the market, creating a speed bump for the Cromford Market Index on its path to a balanced state. This is something to watch for over the coming months. Additionally, the 4th quarter is rarely the best time to be a seller seasonally. While lower mortgage rates are improving demand compared to last year, buyer demand drops significantly over the holidays in November and December. Finally, while recessions can stimulate the mainstream housing market, they tend to stall the luxury and retirement housing markets. These segments do not rely on mortgage rates (often paying with cash) and are more influenced by the performance of their investment portfolios, which tend to suffer during a recession. *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Phoenix Market Update: Demand Stays Strong, but Listings Surge Although the market still favors sellers, momentum is beginning to slow. We saw this shift last week, and it has continued into this week. The average monthly change in Cromford Market Index (CMI)* now sits at 7.6%, down from 8.4% last week. Demand remains strong, but many sellers are re-listing homes that were canceled during the summer, increasing overall supply. The pace of new listings arriving on the market is higher than in either of the past two years. This week, 14 cities strengthened their seller-friendly policies, while 3 shifted in favor of buyers. Paradise Valley, Glendale, and Maricopa moved to the buyer’s side, with Tempe reversing course. Leading the seller-friendly pack are Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Peoria, Gilbert, Avondale, and Surprise. Paradise Valley, however, is slipping quickly as more supply comes online and is at risk of being overtaken by Fountain Hills for the top spot.   We currently have 7 cities in seller’s markets, with Gilbert newly joining that group. Three cities are balanced, and 7 remain in buyer’s markets. Peoria is close to moving out of the buyer’s camp and into balanced territory in just a few days. Generally, the most affordable areas are proving to be the strongest for buyers, though Avondale stands out as an exception. Its supply is far tighter compared to places like Buckeye or Maricopa, giving sellers there more leverage.  *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Markets in a Minute...National View Housing Market Lower rates helped move some potential homebuyers off the fence. Purchase apps rose 7% for the week and were 23% higher than a year ago. ICE's September Mortgage Monitor shows that buying a home takes 31.1% of a buyer’s median income, down from the recent peak of 35.2% in October 2023. FNMA reports consumers grew less confident about housing in August, due to job worries, tougher selling conditions, and concern over future prices. Economy Consumer inflation rose in August to 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace of inflation since January. Tariffs are seen as the primary driver. After jumping in July, wholesale inflation decelerated in August and was weaker than expected. The slowdown supports the possibility of Fed rate cuts. Jobless claims last week reached their highest level in 4 years, signaling layoff activity may be on the rise amid a sharp slowdown in hiring. East Valley Weather 🔍 Things to Note & Tips The heat remains intense, especially early in the week — Tuesday typically reaches its peak. There may  be some afternoon thunderstorms around Friday; that’s the only slight break in the dry heat. Nights are easing a little, but still warm — expect low 70s/upper 70s. Hydration, shade, & timing outdoor activities wisely (early morning or evening) will be key. Have a great week! Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team Brad Daniels is a native of Mesa, Arizona, and the founder of the East Valley Real Estate Team with My Home Group. With 20+ years of experience and hundreds of successful transactions, Brad specializes in helping buyers and sellers relocate to Arizona. Learn more at www.relocatetoaz.com . (602) 679-1025 Direct brad@homeselleraz.com #RelocateToAz #CallBradToSellYourPad

Front elevation for 2150 W State Ave. Phoenix, AZ 85021 I’m excited to introduce my newest listing in the highly desirable 19 North area of Phoenix ! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,790 sq. ft.  offers a rare blend of style, comfort, and convenience—all at an attractive price of $383,900 Prime Location Located in New Castle Homes 2A , also known as 19 North, this home sits in a community with no HOA . You’ll love the convenience of being less than a mile from the light rail, just 8.9 miles from Downtown Phoenix, and minutes to the I-17, shopping, and excellent dining options. Updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances and an induction cooktop Stylish Upgrades Throughout Step inside to discover a space designed with both elegance and function in mind: Kitchen (2023 remodel):  High-gloss white cabinets, glass tile backsplash, Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, induction cooktop, and canned lighting. Flooring:  Luxury plank vinyl runs seamlessly throughout the home. Living Room:  Spacious with crown molding and a large front window for natural light. Family Room:  A standout feature with a bay window, a wood-burning fireplace, and double doors leading to the backyard. New Listing Spotlight: 2150 W State Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85021 Bedrooms & Bathrooms The primary bedroom  offers crown molding, dual closets, and updated lighting. Both bathrooms feature modern HavBack vanities, updated toilets, and fixtures, making this home completely move-in ready. Primary Bedroom Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Outdoor Living The backyard is designed for relaxation and entertaining, featuring  two large covered patios, lush green grass, mature trees, and well-maintained landscaping . There’s also a shed, a work area, and a smaller RV gate—plenty of room for hobbies or storage. Spacious backyard with a large covered patio and mature landscape. Why You’ll Love It This home offers a combination of modern updates, timeless charm, and a central location  that makes it stand out in today’s market. Whether you’re looking for a starter home, a place to grow, or simply want to be closer to the city with easy access to transportation, this property delivers it all. 📲 Interested in seeing this home in person? Contact me today to schedule your private tour. 👉 And don’t forget—if you’re thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix area, I’d love to be your trusted resource. Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025 For additional pictures and information, click here #PhoenixRealEstate #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad

August 2025 Market Snapshot: Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County 📊 Overall Sales Activity 5,875 closed transactions Down 1.5% from August 2024 (5,963) Down 3.8% from July 2025 New Homes: 1,308 closed sales Down 10.0% from August 2024 (1,453) Up 3.9% from July 2025 Re-Sales: 4,567 closed transactions Up 1.3% from August 2024 (4,510) Down 5.8% from July 2025   Note: August 2025 had 21 working days compared to 22 in August 2024. That gave last year a 4.8% advantage, so this year’s numbers are slightly stronger than they first appear.   💰   Median Sales Prices Overall: $475,000 Up 1.1% year-over-year Up 0.2% month-over-month New Homes: $534,998 Up 4.2% year-over-year Up 0.6% month-over-month Re-Sales: $449,999 Flat compared to both August 2024 and July 2025 ($450,000)   Long-Term Peaks: Resale median peaked in May 2022 at $486,000 (down 7.4% since then). New home median peaked in January 2025 at $539,440 (down only 0.8% since then).   🏡 Market Share Shift New Homes: 22.3% of the market in August 2025 Down from 24.4% last year Up from 20.6% last month   This indicates that new home sales have lost ground year-over-year but regained some share compared to July.   📈 Market Trends & Cromford Index The 7-week upward trend is slowing as supply stabilizes and demand makes a modest recovery. Average monthly change in CMI*: 8.4% (slower than last week’s 9.3%) Cities improving for sellers: 13 Cities improving for buyers: 4 (Maricopa, Tempe, Glendale, and Paradise Valley)   Front-runners for sellers: Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Avondale, Gilbert, Cave Creek, Surprise, and Peoria. Paradise Valley: After leading for several weeks, it’s beginning to soften. Current market breakdown: 6 seller’s markets 4 balanced markets 7 buyer’s markets   🔎   Takeaway While prices remain stable and demand is edging upward, supply is expected to rise again as we head into the fall. That could bring more opportunities for buyers and test the resilience of sellers in certain areas. *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 09/05/2025 So far, there has been nothing from “jobs week” to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17. In fact, the jobs data has generally come in weaker than expected, with the anemic jobs report on Friday providing a significant boost. At the same time, a growing number of Fed members are voicing concerns about the upside risks to the unemployment rate.  Let’s take a look…….   Job openings dropped The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) showed that total job openings in July 2025 fell 2% month-over-month to 7.18 million. That was below expectations (~7.4 million) and is the lowest figure seen since December 2020. Both the hire rate (3.3%) and the quit rate (2.0%) remained very low. So ADP: Weak private job growth.    Private employers added just 54,000 jobs in August (vs. 70,000 expected). Over the last six months, job gains have averaged 62,000 per month. Over the last 3 months, 46,000. The annual wage increase for “job leavers” was 7.1%, while the increase for job stayers was 4.4%. BLS Jobs Report  The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August jobs report delivered a sobering message: nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, far below the Wall Street forecast of around 75,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent from July’s 4.2 percent. Revisions revealed that June saw a contraction of 13,000 jobs (revised from a small gain) and July was nudged up slightly to +79,000, meaning combined employment in June and July came in 21,000 lower than previously estimated. Healthcare remained the only bright spot, adding 31,000 jobs, while sectors such as the federal government, mining, wholesale trade, and manufacturing all saw notable weakness or outright losses.   For mortgage markets, this weak jobs data reinforces the narrative that the economy is slowing and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with interest rate cuts this fall. Investors responded quickly—Treasury yields slid to five-month lows as traders bet the report effectively guarantees a Fed cut at the next meeting. For homebuyers and homeowners, that’s an encouraging sign: lower yields often translate into easing mortgage rates, potentially opening up new opportunities for affordability and refinancing as we move toward the end of 2025.   Bond and Mortgage Market “Jobs week” has so far been supportive of higher bond prices and lower bond yields. The JOLTs report showed a sizable drop in job openings, ADP reported very modest job gains, and the Challenger report highlighted a rise in job cut announcements. The yield on the 10-year US treasury is currently trading just below 4.20%, and average 30-year mortgage rates have moved to 6.5%.   With all of the above in mind, it’s no surprise to see that the probabilities for rate cuts have risen. A rate cut in September is fully priced in. Beyond that, the market remains uncertain about whether we’ll receive one or two more rate cuts before year-end.   Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. September 17 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut (up from 85% a week ago). October 29 FOMC Meeting: 54% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 44% a week ago). That means a 25 bps rate cut at both the September and October meetings. 45% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both). December 10 FOMC Meeting: 45% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (up from 36% last week). That means a rate cut at each of the three meetings before the end of the year. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Spending on new single-family housing edged up in July. Overall construction continues to decline due to rising rates and increased inventories. Homebuyers are backing out of deals more often, and purchase deals are now falling through at rates not seen in years, signaling growing caution. Purchase mortgage apps fell 6% from the previous week but were up 17% year over year. Refi applications rose 1% for the week and 20% over the same period last year. Economy The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity and hiring have remained mostly flat in recent weeks, with tariffs weighing on businesses and consumers. Job openings dropped sharply to 7.18 million in July, the second-lowest level since the pandemic began. Slower hiring signals labor market weakness. Factory orders slid in July, hit hard by plunging aircraft bookings. However, non-transportation orders rose more than expected. Weekly Weather Snapshot - Metro Phoenix Tuesday (Today) : Mostly sunny and hot, with highs around 106 °F (41 °C)  and lows near 81 °F (27 °C) . Wednesday : Sunny, breezy, and scorching—peak temperatures around 107 °F (42 °C) . Thursday : Still very warm and a touch breezy. Highs around 103 °F (40 °C) . Friday & Saturday : Slight cooldown with highs in the upper 90s ( 98–99 °F / 37 °C ). Plenty of sunshine to keep things bright. Sunday & Monday : Temperatures climb again to the low 100s  ( 101–102 °F / 39 °C ), with a mix of hazy sunshine by Monday. Have a great week! Brad Daniels - The East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025 brad@homeselleraz.com #RelocateToAz