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As the Market Turns: Could a Recession be Good for Housing in Phoenix, Arizona? For Buyers   Be aware, the market is turning. Reading the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* for Greater Phoenix, a measure under 90 is a buyer’s market, and 90-110 is a balanced market. Our index has been indicating a buyer’s market since November 2024 and reached its bottom at a measure of 72 before turning in mid-July. Two months later, as of September 11th, the CMI is up 9 points to 81. At this rate, it could surpass 90 and enter a balanced state by November, potentially ending a year-long buyer’s market and stabilizing prices.   Buyers may not have as much time as they think to purchase under the favorable negotiating conditions of a buyer’s market. Asking prices for homes have been declining for 4 months, but appear to have stalled over the past week. Mortgage rates in January were 7.26% according to Mortgage News Daily, and by September 11th, they had averaged 6.27%, representing a nearly full percentage point change. Meanwhile, active mid-range listings between $300,000 and $600,000 have dropped nearly 2% in asking price.   What does this mean?  Let’s do the math. With every 1% drop in mortgage rate, all principal and interest payment measures across all loan amounts drop by 10%. So if a buyer was quoted a $2,400 monthly payment in January on a $350,000 loan at 7.26%, that PI payment would be $2,160 at 6.26%, saving $240/month. Combine that with a 2% drop in the asking price of the home, which saves an additional 2% off the payment, bringing the total savings to $288 and a payment of $2,112, representing a 12% discount compared to January.   That’s not all. In this buyer’s market, more than 60% of sales between $225,000 and $600,000 have sellers paying for the buyer’s closing costs, which often include a 2/1 rate buydown. This reduces the buyer’s payment by an additional 20% in the first year and 10% in the second, resulting in a first-year payment of $1,690 and a second-year payment of $1,900, before taxes and insurance.   Over the next few months, sales prices are expected to begin showing a decline, which active list prices have already experienced. However, if mortgage rates stay low and the Cromford® Market Index continues to climb out of a buyer’s market, buyers may see their negotiating advantage dwindle. For now, all properties are officially “on sale”. For Seller   Headlines about the economy are quite alarming these days, with recession predictions reaching as high as a 93% probability from UBS last week. These are based on a continuous stream of weak job reports and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% reported on September 5th. Ironically, history tells us that as the labor market weakens and recession looms, mortgage rates improve and homebuyer demand increases. In fact, in Greater Phoenix, home sales actually increased over the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions despite high unemployment.   How can this be?  As fears of a recession rise, accompanied by increased unemployment, demand for bonds increases as people move their funds to safety. This pushes the 10-year Treasury rate down, which in turn lowers the 30-year mortgage rate. Even with higher unemployment rates, the vast majority of people are still employed. Those who are stable in their employment see an increase in their ability to qualify when mortgage rates decline and are motivated to explore their options, thus increasing demand.   Buyers are not the only ones who get excited over lower mortgage rates; sellers do, too. This means that while demand is increasing, more listings than expected may initially hit the market, creating a speed bump for the Cromford Market Index on its path to a balanced state. This is something to watch for over the coming months. Additionally, the 4th quarter is rarely the best time to be a seller seasonally. While lower mortgage rates are improving demand compared to last year, buyer demand drops significantly over the holidays in November and December. Finally, while recessions can stimulate the mainstream housing market, they tend to stall the luxury and retirement housing markets. These segments do not rely on mortgage rates (often paying with cash) and are more influenced by the performance of their investment portfolios, which tend to suffer during a recession. *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Phoenix Market Update: Demand Stays Strong, but Listings Surge Although the market still favors sellers, momentum is beginning to slow. We saw this shift last week, and it has continued into this week. The average monthly change in Cromford Market Index (CMI)* now sits at 7.6%, down from 8.4% last week. Demand remains strong, but many sellers are re-listing homes that were canceled during the summer, increasing overall supply. The pace of new listings arriving on the market is higher than in either of the past two years. This week, 14 cities strengthened their seller-friendly policies, while 3 shifted in favor of buyers. Paradise Valley, Glendale, and Maricopa moved to the buyer’s side, with Tempe reversing course. Leading the seller-friendly pack are Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Peoria, Gilbert, Avondale, and Surprise. Paradise Valley, however, is slipping quickly as more supply comes online and is at risk of being overtaken by Fountain Hills for the top spot.   We currently have 7 cities in seller’s markets, with Gilbert newly joining that group. Three cities are balanced, and 7 remain in buyer’s markets. Peoria is close to moving out of the buyer’s camp and into balanced territory in just a few days. Generally, the most affordable areas are proving to be the strongest for buyers, though Avondale stands out as an exception. Its supply is far tighter compared to places like Buckeye or Maricopa, giving sellers there more leverage.  *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Markets in a Minute...National View Housing Market Lower rates helped move some potential homebuyers off the fence. Purchase apps rose 7% for the week and were 23% higher than a year ago. ICE's September Mortgage Monitor shows that buying a home takes 31.1% of a buyer’s median income, down from the recent peak of 35.2% in October 2023. FNMA reports consumers grew less confident about housing in August, due to job worries, tougher selling conditions, and concern over future prices. Economy Consumer inflation rose in August to 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace of inflation since January. Tariffs are seen as the primary driver. After jumping in July, wholesale inflation decelerated in August and was weaker than expected. The slowdown supports the possibility of Fed rate cuts. Jobless claims last week reached their highest level in 4 years, signaling layoff activity may be on the rise amid a sharp slowdown in hiring. East Valley Weather 🔍 Things to Note & Tips The heat remains intense, especially early in the week — Tuesday typically reaches its peak. There may  be some afternoon thunderstorms around Friday; that’s the only slight break in the dry heat. Nights are easing a little, but still warm — expect low 70s/upper 70s. Hydration, shade, & timing outdoor activities wisely (early morning or evening) will be key. Have a great week! Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team Brad Daniels is a native of Mesa, Arizona, and the founder of the East Valley Real Estate Team with My Home Group. With 20+ years of experience and hundreds of successful transactions, Brad specializes in helping buyers and sellers relocate to Arizona. Learn more at www.relocatetoaz.com . (602) 679-1025 Direct brad@homeselleraz.com #RelocateToAz #CallBradToSellYourPad

Front elevation for 2150 W State Ave. Phoenix, AZ 85021 I’m excited to introduce my newest listing in the highly desirable 19 North area of Phoenix ! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,790 sq. ft.  offers a rare blend of style, comfort, and convenience—all at an attractive price of $383,900 Prime Location Located in New Castle Homes 2A , also known as 19 North, this home sits in a community with no HOA . You’ll love the convenience of being less than a mile from the light rail, just 8.9 miles from Downtown Phoenix, and minutes to the I-17, shopping, and excellent dining options. Updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances and an induction cooktop Stylish Upgrades Throughout Step inside to discover a space designed with both elegance and function in mind: Kitchen (2023 remodel):  High-gloss white cabinets, glass tile backsplash, Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, induction cooktop, and canned lighting. Flooring:  Luxury plank vinyl runs seamlessly throughout the home. Living Room:  Spacious with crown molding and a large front window for natural light. Family Room:  A standout feature with a bay window, a wood-burning fireplace, and double doors leading to the backyard. New Listing Spotlight: 2150 W State Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85021 Bedrooms & Bathrooms The primary bedroom  offers crown molding, dual closets, and updated lighting. Both bathrooms feature modern HavBack vanities, updated toilets, and fixtures, making this home completely move-in ready. Primary Bedroom Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Outdoor Living The backyard is designed for relaxation and entertaining, featuring  two large covered patios, lush green grass, mature trees, and well-maintained landscaping . There’s also a shed, a work area, and a smaller RV gate—plenty of room for hobbies or storage. Spacious backyard with a large covered patio and mature landscape. Why You’ll Love It This home offers a combination of modern updates, timeless charm, and a central location  that makes it stand out in today’s market. Whether you’re looking for a starter home, a place to grow, or simply want to be closer to the city with easy access to transportation, this property delivers it all. 📲 Interested in seeing this home in person? Contact me today to schedule your private tour. 👉 And don’t forget—if you’re thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix area, I’d love to be your trusted resource. Brad Daniels - East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025 For additional pictures and information, click here #PhoenixRealEstate #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad

August 2025 Market Snapshot: Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County 📊 Overall Sales Activity 5,875 closed transactions Down 1.5% from August 2024 (5,963) Down 3.8% from July 2025 New Homes: 1,308 closed sales Down 10.0% from August 2024 (1,453) Up 3.9% from July 2025 Re-Sales: 4,567 closed transactions Up 1.3% from August 2024 (4,510) Down 5.8% from July 2025   Note: August 2025 had 21 working days compared to 22 in August 2024. That gave last year a 4.8% advantage, so this year’s numbers are slightly stronger than they first appear.   💰   Median Sales Prices Overall: $475,000 Up 1.1% year-over-year Up 0.2% month-over-month New Homes: $534,998 Up 4.2% year-over-year Up 0.6% month-over-month Re-Sales: $449,999 Flat compared to both August 2024 and July 2025 ($450,000)   Long-Term Peaks: Resale median peaked in May 2022 at $486,000 (down 7.4% since then). New home median peaked in January 2025 at $539,440 (down only 0.8% since then).   🏡 Market Share Shift New Homes: 22.3% of the market in August 2025 Down from 24.4% last year Up from 20.6% last month   This indicates that new home sales have lost ground year-over-year but regained some share compared to July.   📈 Market Trends & Cromford Index The 7-week upward trend is slowing as supply stabilizes and demand makes a modest recovery. Average monthly change in CMI*: 8.4% (slower than last week’s 9.3%) Cities improving for sellers: 13 Cities improving for buyers: 4 (Maricopa, Tempe, Glendale, and Paradise Valley)   Front-runners for sellers: Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Avondale, Gilbert, Cave Creek, Surprise, and Peoria. Paradise Valley: After leading for several weeks, it’s beginning to soften. Current market breakdown: 6 seller’s markets 4 balanced markets 7 buyer’s markets   🔎   Takeaway While prices remain stable and demand is edging upward, supply is expected to rise again as we head into the fall. That could bring more opportunities for buyers and test the resilience of sellers in certain areas. *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 09/05/2025 So far, there has been nothing from “jobs week” to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17. In fact, the jobs data has generally come in weaker than expected, with the anemic jobs report on Friday providing a significant boost. At the same time, a growing number of Fed members are voicing concerns about the upside risks to the unemployment rate.  Let’s take a look…….   Job openings dropped The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) showed that total job openings in July 2025 fell 2% month-over-month to 7.18 million. That was below expectations (~7.4 million) and is the lowest figure seen since December 2020. Both the hire rate (3.3%) and the quit rate (2.0%) remained very low. So ADP: Weak private job growth.    Private employers added just 54,000 jobs in August (vs. 70,000 expected). Over the last six months, job gains have averaged 62,000 per month. Over the last 3 months, 46,000. The annual wage increase for “job leavers” was 7.1%, while the increase for job stayers was 4.4%. BLS Jobs Report  The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August jobs report delivered a sobering message: nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, far below the Wall Street forecast of around 75,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent from July’s 4.2 percent. Revisions revealed that June saw a contraction of 13,000 jobs (revised from a small gain) and July was nudged up slightly to +79,000, meaning combined employment in June and July came in 21,000 lower than previously estimated. Healthcare remained the only bright spot, adding 31,000 jobs, while sectors such as the federal government, mining, wholesale trade, and manufacturing all saw notable weakness or outright losses.   For mortgage markets, this weak jobs data reinforces the narrative that the economy is slowing and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with interest rate cuts this fall. Investors responded quickly—Treasury yields slid to five-month lows as traders bet the report effectively guarantees a Fed cut at the next meeting. For homebuyers and homeowners, that’s an encouraging sign: lower yields often translate into easing mortgage rates, potentially opening up new opportunities for affordability and refinancing as we move toward the end of 2025.   Bond and Mortgage Market “Jobs week” has so far been supportive of higher bond prices and lower bond yields. The JOLTs report showed a sizable drop in job openings, ADP reported very modest job gains, and the Challenger report highlighted a rise in job cut announcements. The yield on the 10-year US treasury is currently trading just below 4.20%, and average 30-year mortgage rates have moved to 6.5%.   With all of the above in mind, it’s no surprise to see that the probabilities for rate cuts have risen. A rate cut in September is fully priced in. Beyond that, the market remains uncertain about whether we’ll receive one or two more rate cuts before year-end.   Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. September 17 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut (up from 85% a week ago). October 29 FOMC Meeting: 54% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 44% a week ago). That means a 25 bps rate cut at both the September and October meetings. 45% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both). December 10 FOMC Meeting: 45% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (up from 36% last week). That means a rate cut at each of the three meetings before the end of the year. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Spending on new single-family housing edged up in July. Overall construction continues to decline due to rising rates and increased inventories. Homebuyers are backing out of deals more often, and purchase deals are now falling through at rates not seen in years, signaling growing caution. Purchase mortgage apps fell 6% from the previous week but were up 17% year over year. Refi applications rose 1% for the week and 20% over the same period last year. Economy The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity and hiring have remained mostly flat in recent weeks, with tariffs weighing on businesses and consumers. Job openings dropped sharply to 7.18 million in July, the second-lowest level since the pandemic began. Slower hiring signals labor market weakness. Factory orders slid in July, hit hard by plunging aircraft bookings. However, non-transportation orders rose more than expected. Weekly Weather Snapshot - Metro Phoenix Tuesday (Today) : Mostly sunny and hot, with highs around 106 °F (41 °C)  and lows near 81 °F (27 °C) . Wednesday : Sunny, breezy, and scorching—peak temperatures around 107 °F (42 °C) . Thursday : Still very warm and a touch breezy. Highs around 103 °F (40 °C) . Friday & Saturday : Slight cooldown with highs in the upper 90s ( 98–99 °F / 37 °C ). Plenty of sunshine to keep things bright. Sunday & Monday : Temperatures climb again to the low 100s  ( 101–102 °F / 39 °C ), with a mix of hazy sunshine by Monday. Have a great week! Brad Daniels - The East Valley Real Estate Team (602) 679-1025 brad@homeselleraz.com #RelocateToAz

Thank you for your hard work! Six Weeks Running: Supply Shrinks and Demand Climbs in Phoenix, Arizona. The trend that began six weeks ago remains strong, with supply continuing to decline and demand on the rise. The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index now sits at 9.4%—a slight uptick from 9.3% last week. Fifteen cities posted gains for sellers, while only two (Maricopa and Tempe) shifted in favor of buyers. Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale have been the strongest movers over the past month, while Paradise Valley shows signs of slowing.   Several other markets are also showing notable strength, including Avondale, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, and Surprise, which are all up by more than 10%. At this point, we have six cities in seller’s market territory, four in balanced markets, and seven that remain in buyer’s markets - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team, RelocateToAz.com .   *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/29/2025 A week ago, this past Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that a rate cut may be on the table, noting that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” His comments were one of the key takeaways from the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where central bankers and economists gather to discuss the global economy. So far this year, the Fed has kept its main interest rate, the Federal Funds Rate, unchanged, aiming to balance concerns about inflation with the need to support job growth. However, as signs of a cooling labor sector emerge, so does the pressure on the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting on September 17. With so much attention on this upcoming decision, it’s worth taking a quick look at who actually makes these calls and what their perspectives might be.   Who Makes Decisions About Interest Rates?   When you hear that “the Fed” is changing interest rates, the actual decisions come from a group called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This committee plays a crucial role in shaping U.S. monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates and the broader economy. The FOMC is made up of 12 voting members:   The seven members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors The President of the New York Fed, who always has a vote And four of the remaining 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who rotate into voting roles each year   Even the regional Fed presidents who aren’t voting members still attend the meetings. They actively participate in discussions and share insights about economic conditions in their districts, which helps shape the committee’s overall view.   The FOMC meets eight times a year to review the latest economic and financial data. During these meetings, they assess factors such as inflation, employment, and overall economic growth to determine whether interest rates need to be adjusted or left unchanged. Their goal is to support stable prices and maximum employment over the long term.   Doves vs. Hawks: Two Different Perspectives on Policy   Within the Fed, and especially on the FOMC, you’ll often hear members described as either “doves” or “hawks.” These labels reflect how individual policymakers tend to view inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Doves typically prioritize supporting employment and economic growth, and are often more comfortable with keeping interest rates lower for longer, even if inflation is slightly elevated.   Hawks are more focused on fighting inflation, even if that means raising rates or slowing parts of the economy. They see price stability as the foundation for long-term economic health.   These aren’t rigid labels. In fact, many Fed officials adjust their views in response to changing economic conditions. For example, while the Fed unanimously voted to hold rates steady at its first four meetings of the year, that unity began to shift in July. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman broke from the majority by favoring a 25-basis-point cut, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and the broader economy. Their dissent highlights how evolving data can lead to different policy conclusions even within the same committee.   Shifts in Fed leadership could also influence the direction of policy. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler recently resigned, leaving a vacancy on the Board of Governors. President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran – considered a dove in favor of cutting rates – to fill that seat. However, it’s unclear whether the Senate will confirm his nomination in time for the September 17 meeting.   In addition, President Trump has attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook after allegations of mortgage fraud surfaced. Cook has denied the allegations, and the attempt to fire her is expected to face legal challenges in court. If Trump is ultimately successful, he would likely appoint another dove, which could further shift the Fed’s policy stance heading into the fall.   Bottom Line:  The Fed is walking a fine line, working to tame inflation without pushing the economy into a slowdown. Powell’s recent remarks suggest a rate cut is on the table, but the decision will largely depend on the data that comes in over the next few weeks, especially the August Jobs Report due on September 5. All eyes will be on the September 17 meeting and the direction it sets for monetary policy moving forward. Do you have a question regarding your mortgage rate, or would you like to get prequalified? Call Brad Daniels with the East Valley Real Estate Team.   Bond and Mortgage Market   Powell’s Jackson Hole speech increased market confidence that the first rate cut of 2025 will come on September 17. But the odds of further rate cuts in October and December didn’t really change that much. With the risks to inflation (upside) and employment (downside) currently “balanced” according to Jerome Powell, additional rate cuts will ultimately depend on the data, as we have several inflation and jobs reports before year-end. Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   September 17 FOMC Meeting:  An 85% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 73% a week ago). There is a 15% probability that rates will remain unchanged. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  44% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 34% a week ago). 49% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both). December 10 FOMC Meeting:  36% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (up from 25% last week). There is a 48% probability that they’ll be 50 bps below the current rate. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market New home sales fell in July after June’s sharp upward revision. The housing market remains struggling as consumers grapple with affordability. FHFA reports house prices rose 2.9% year over year but were unchanged from the 1st quarter, pointing to a slowdown in growth nationwide. Pending sales cooled again in July, reflecting buyer caution in a market where affordability remains a challenge. Economy Both new jobless claims and continuing claims fell last week. Layoffs remain low even as hiring slows across the broader labor market. Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. Consumer confidence declined in August as concerns about job prospects, tariffs, and inflation dampened household optimism. East Valley Weather Here’s your 7-day outlook for the East Valley Quick Highlights & Tips Very Hot Start to the Week Expect searing temperatures to soar well above 105°F on Monday (106°F) and Tuesday (108°F), with persistent heat expected through midweek. Stay hydrated, plan outdoor activities for early mornings or evenings, and take frequent shade or cooling breaks. Thunderstorm Watch Afternoon thunderstorms may roll in on Tuesday , Thursday , and Saturday , posing a risk of flash flooding —especially Thursday afternoon when a strong thunderstorm  is forecast. Keep an eye on local alerts, avoid dry washes and low-lying areas, and refrain from travel if flash flooding advisories are in effect. Gradual Cooling Trend By the weekend, highs dip into the mid- to high-90s°F , though it’s still hot. Nights remain warm, with lows hovering between 74°F and 85°F , offering some relief but still feeling muggy. Air Quality Concerns Monday brings hazy skies and elevated ozone levels , which can impact sensitive groups. Limit outdoor exertion and consider indoor activities if you’re especially vulnerable. Have a happy Labor Day and a great week ahead - Brad Daniels, East Valley Real Estate Team 602-679-1025 | brad@homeselleraz.com | #CallBradToSellYourPad #RelocateToAz

The Market Momentum Shifts Further in Favor of Sellers in Phoenix, Arizona By: Brad Daniels with the East Valley Real Estate Team. The upward momentum in the Greater Phoenix housing market has now carried into its fifth consecutive week. Supply continues to contract while demand edges higher, pushing the average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* to 9.3%, up from 8.4% last week. This acceleration is significant, as it reflects the strongest sustained shift we’ve seen since early summer. City-Level Performance This week, 14 cities improved in favor of sellers, while only two cities (Maricopa and Tempe) shifted toward buyers, and one city held steady. Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale posted stronger percentage gains than Paradise Valley. Avondale, Peoria, and Gilbert are standouts, each showing double-digit CMI gains of 10% or more, signaling particularly strong momentum at the lower to mid-price ranges.   Current Market Breakdown Six cities are now in seller’s market territory (2 of these only marginally). Four cities remain balanced. Seven cities continue to favor buyers, though the number is shrinking week over week.   Overall, the data suggests that while the luxury sector remains insulated, pressure is mounting in the mid-to-lower price ranges, where sellers hold increasing leverage. *Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.   Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/22/2025 The week ended on a very positive note for mortgage interest rates, compliments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  Let’s take a look…. . Fed Rate Cut Likely   Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Friday that a rate cut could be coming, saying the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” His comments were the highlight of this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. So far this year, the Fed has kept its key interest rate steady while trying to balance inflation and employment, but speculation has been growing about a possible cut at their next meeting on September 17. Just as a quick refresher: when the Fed makes changes to interest rates, they’re specifically adjusting the Fed Funds Rate, which is the short-term, overnight rate banks use when lending to one another. This rate sets the tone for other interest rates across the economy, but it doesn’t directly control mortgage rates or other long-term rates.   Mortgage rates tend to follow the Fed Funds Rate.     Despite my comments above, mortgage rates do tend to follow the Fed Funds Rate.  While the FFR and mortgage rates can move in different directions in the short term (and the relationship is not 1:1), over the long term, the correlation is clear (see graph below). It’s also pretty clear that when the Fed is cutting the FFR aggressively, we’re usually already in a recession.   Blue line: Average 30-yr Mortgage Rate; Green line: Effective FFR By the way, if the FFR moved 175 bps lower from where it is today, it would be 2.75%. Assuming the same spread between the FFR and average 30-yr mortgage rates (currently 200 bps), that would mean 4.75% for mortgage rates! We’d be off to the races again! (if that spread held, of course)   Bond and Mortgage Market   The good news is that average 30-year mortgage rates continue to hang near 6.5%. Part of the reason for this relative stability is that the “spread” between mortgage rates and US bond yields has been declining. That’s good news for borrowers. We’ve certainly seen a big pickup in consumer inquiries (coming from the Home Report) regarding refi opportunities. Here are the current probabilities for Fed rate cuts at the next three meetings.   Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  A 94% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current after Powell’s comments on Friday. 27% probability that rates will be unchanged. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  34% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down big from 63% a week ago). 51% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying a rate cut in either September or October, but not both). December 10 FOMC Meeting:  25% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current (down big from 53% last week). There is a 47% probability that they’ll be 50 bps below the current level. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market In August, builder confidence hit its lowest point in 5 years. Rising material costs and tariff anxiety are weighing on builders. Existing home sales rose 2% in July, topping forecasts. With prices up more than 40% since 2020, affordability remains a major challenge for buyers. Purchase mortgage applications were nearly flat last week but still ran 23% above last year and were at their strongest pace in 4 weeks. Economy Jobless claims rose to 235K last week, up 11K, reaching the highest level since June and signaling a possible cool-down in the labor market. Minutes from last month's Fed meeting showed debate over tariffs’ impact on prices. Board members worried more about inflation than job losses. Tariffs are starting to impact consumer prices. Retailers like Home Depot and Walmart acknowledge passing rising import costs on to shoppers. Weather RelocateToAZ.com helps families move to Arizona with expert real estate guidance. Brad Daniels and his East Valley Real Estate Team provide trusted service in Metro Phoenix and the East Valley. Have a great week! #CallBradToSellYourPad #RelocateToAZ

Currently, condos and townhomes are among the most buyer-friendly segments of the market in Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding cities. Not every homebuyer wants the biggest house on the block. Some want something simpler, more affordable, and easier to maintain, especially in a market where every dollar counts. That’s where condos come in. For first-time buyers, they can be a smart way to get into homeownership without stretching your budget. For downsizers, they offer less space to maintain, with the flexibility to stay in a great location. Currently, condos and townhomes are one of the most buyer-friendly segments of the market in Phoenix, Arizona, with the  steepest asking-price declines in condos and townhomes under $500K, down 5.9% year-over-year, compared to single-family homes under $500K, which are down just 1.3%. In July, buyers also negotiated additional discounts—2.5% below list on condos/townhomes and 1.3% on single-family homes. Condo Inventory Is Up, And That Means More Choice According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there are 194,000 condos for sale right now. That’s the second-highest amount we’ve seen in the last three years ( see graph below ): Just remember, this is the national figure. The exact number will vary depending on where you plan to buy. But, generally speaking, you have more options and less competition. You’re not stuck waiting for something to pop up or rushing into an offer just to beat someone else to it. You’ve got plenty to choose from. And if you’re particular about layout, location, or amenities, this is your chance to be selective. That’s a big shift from the market frenzy of just a few years ago. Compared to early 2022, we’ve got nearly double the condos available now. That gives you more breathing room to find the right fit. Prices Are Cooling, and Buyers Hold More Negotiating Power Since there are more items for sale, many sellers are more open to negotiating right now. So, you may be able to get a better price. As Brad Daniels with the East Valley Real Estate Team explains: “. . . condo buyers in many cities may be able to find sellers who are willing to give concessions and/or sell for less than their asking price.” Condo prices are starting to ease in many markets. According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), condo prices dipped 1.3% in June compared to last year. And over half of the top 100 U.S. metros saw condo prices drop slightly year-over-year. Data from Redfin shows what the recent dip in prices looks like ( see graph below ): That doesn’t just help with affordability, it also shifts the power dynamic. Condo buyers in many markets are now in a position to negotiate on price and ask for concessions, like help with closing costs. Bottom Line Condos aren’t just a fallback option. In today’s market, condos and townhomes are among the most buyer-friendly segments of the market in Phoenix, Arizona. With more options, softening prices, and more room to negotiate, now could be the right time to make your move. Could a condo check more boxes than you expected? Let’s talk through your options and find out, Brad Daniels - The East Valley Real Estate Team and RelocateToAZ.com (602) 679-1025

New Contracts Surge in Phoenix, Arizona, as Active Supply Drops 14% Since April. What does that mean for you? 🫵 For Buyers Since April, active supply levels have declined 13.6%, driven by a surge in cancelled and expired listings from May through July and too few new listings to replace them. July cancellations were up 64% compared to last year, while expired listings increased 69%. On the demand side, conditions are starting to improve—mortgage rates have eased from 6.75% to 6.55%, and weekly accepted contracts are up 14% since the 4th of July. While median sales prices remain flat compared to last year, asking prices are trending down when measured by price per square foot. Seller concessions are at record highs, with 56% of July sales including closing cost or rate buydown assistance—August is already hitting 58%. The steepest asking-price declines are in condos and townhomes under $500K, down 5.9% year-over-year, compared to single-family homes under $500K, which are down just 1.3%. In July, buyers also negotiated additional discounts—2.5% below list on condos/townhomes and 1.3% on single-family homes. Overall, buyers currently hold a substantial advantage, but the tide may be shifting. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has started to tick upward over the past 30 days as supply falls and demand stabilizes. If this trend continues, today’s buyer-friendly conditions may not last. Those looking to capitalize on seller concessions and minimal competition should act sooner rather than later. As affordability improves, more buyers will enter the market, and sellers will be less likely to accommodate every demand. For Sellers Although the market is beginning to improve, Greater Phoenix remains firmly in buyer’s territory, so patience is key. July and August are seeing a median of 48 days on market before contract—the highest for July in at least 11 years. Condos are facing even more challenging conditions, with a 69-day median, and condos under $250K stretching to 79 days. Even as the buyer’s market eases, home prices won’t hit bottom until 3–6 months after the CMI reaches a balanced state. If balance occurs in October or November, that would point to prices bottoming out around February or March. Sellers weighing whether to wait should consider this tradeoff: homes may sell faster with fewer concessions in the future, but prices could be lower than what sellers might achieve today. In many cases, the savings on concessions may be offset by the lower sale price. Longer-term appreciation is unlikely until the market shifts back into seller’s territory, which isn’t on the horizon yet. There is, however, a potential wild card. National economists are raising the probability of a recession, with major banks such as Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank putting odds between 30% and 43%. If unemployment rises sharply, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates and ease monetary policy, which would push mortgage rates lower. Combined with today’s reduced home prices, this could increase buyer activity in the fourth quarter—providing some relief to sellers. No one welcomes a recession, but ironically, it could be the spark that accelerates a housing market recovery. Buying a Home With a Pool? Here’s What You Need to Know Photo courtesy of Zoety Wellness & Spa Resorts Pools are a highly sought-after home feature, but they come with added responsibilities and costs. This past spring, nearly one in four listed homes included a pool—a record high, according to a realtor.com ® analysis of April housing data.   What to Look for During a Walkthrough   Visual Issues Keep an eye out for: Loose tiles or missing grout Green or discolored water Low water levels (a possible leak) Cracks in steps, walls, or the pool floor   Minor “hydration” or spider cracks are often cosmetic and can be repaired with just $10 in epoxy. The concern is deeper separation cracks—large enough to fit a penny—which may signal structural or underground issues that could cost thousands to fix.   Equipment Check Ask the homeowner to turn on the pool equipment. Listen for high-pitched noises or signs that the system is struggling.   Coping Joint Inspection Inspect the joint between the pool coping and the surrounding deck. If it hasn’t been properly sealed with mastic compound, water can seep behind the coping and damage the pool structure, especially in climates with freeze-thaw cycles.     Brad Recommends a Professional Inspection   Standard home inspections don’t usually cover pools. Many buyers schedule a specialized pool inspection. A qualified inspector can evaluate the shell, coping, deck, and equipment to identify cracks, leaks, or other issues.   Budget for Ongoing Maintenance   Pool ownership requires consistent upkeep, with annual costs typically ranging from $1,000 to $4,000 (Family Pool Maintenance). Many homeowners combine professional services with DIY tasks.   Does a Pool Add Resale Value?   Yes. A 2025 realtor.com ® study found that homes with pools sold for a 54% premium—$599,000 versus $389,000 for homes without.   “During the pandemic, people were looking for ways to get more enjoyment out of their homes, which drove the so-called ‘pool premium,’” says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at realtor.com ®. While that premium peaked in January 2022, pools continue to boost home values and remain a highly desirable feature, especially in Arizona.   5 Popular Pool Upgrades   Updating an older pool can improve resale value and enjoyment. Popular upgrades include: Automation – Modern systems let owners manage cleaning, filtration, and chlorine levels directly from an app. Energy Efficiency – Variable-speed pumps improve efficiency and reduce energy costs. Water Features – Add-ons like waterfalls, bubblers, and jump rocks are increasingly popular. Baja Steps/Tanning Ledges – Shallow ledges for lounging and sunbathing. Modern Lighting – LED color-changing lights can refresh the look and feel of older pools.   ✅ Bottom line: Pools add value and enjoyment, but buyers should carefully assess condition, budget for upkeep, and consider professional inspections before diving in. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.5% of total applications from 41.5% the previous week. Purchase apps rose 1% for the week and 17% over last year. ICE’s August Mortgage Monitor reported 26 weeks of consecutive year-over-year gains. ICE also reported year-over-year growth of 1.4% in single-family home prices in July. Condo prices fell 1.8%, the softest condo market since 2012. Economy Consumer inflation was slightly higher in July but still met expectations, ramping up markets' bets that the Fed would cut rates in September. Wholesale inflation rose much more than expected in July, signaling tariff costs may trickle down to consumers in the coming months. Markets are currently betting on Fed policy rate cuts to begin in September. Mortgage rates already reflect the market speculation. East Valley Weather Have a great week, everyone! Brad Daniels with RelocateToAZ.com

Model: 5528-RV-Overland. Elevation A - Santa Barbara. Taylor Morrison. Coming Soon | Combs Ranch Journey Collection | featuring RV garages Featured Floor Plan – 2,892 SqFt | Single-Story | 3–4 Bedrooms | 2–3 Bathrooms | 1 Half Bath | 2-Car Garage + RV Garage Buyers may enjoy extra savings when they use me as their preferred sales agent on their first visit. Options are highlighted and noted below. Spacious and thoughtfully designed, this home welcomes you with a foyer leading to two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a powder room, just outside a versatile flex room. The open-concept living area features a great room that flows into a casual dining space, a gourmet kitchen with a large island, and a covered patio—perfect for effortless entertaining. On one side of the great room, a second flex room offers endless possibilities—convert it into an additional bedroom and bath, create a home office, or design a kids’ retreat. On the other side, you’ll find the private primary suite with a generous walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed bathroom. The highlight? A 2-car garage plus an oversized RV garage—perfect for your outdoor toys or extra storage. Community Information Breathtaking desert views, right outside your door. Live where the desert meets the mountains at Combs Ranch Journey Collection in San Tan Valley, AZ, coming September 2025! This master-planned community will feature unique RV garages, offering extra space for your adventures, secure storage for your vehicles, and added convenience for road trip-ready living. Open-concept homes give you plenty of space to grow, while a shimmering pool, imaginative playgrounds, parks, lush greenbelts, and a serene butterfly garden are all just outside your door. Five other models to choose from, three with three-car garages, and three with an RV garage. Price starts in the mid-$500s Find more reasons to love our new homes in San Tan Valley, AZ, below.  Personalize every detail of your new home with the experts at our Design Studio.  Enjoy true open-concept living. Spacious great rooms flow into large kitchens and casual dining areas.  Catch a glimpse of vibrant orange and black wings against the blue sky at your community’s National Wildlife Federation-Certified Butterfly Garden!   Head to Schnepf Farms, Founders’ Park Splash Pad, or even try out Baby Goat Yoga—all close by your new home.  Find your new favorite dish at Queen Creek Olive Mill, then stop by Menchie’s Frozen Yogurt for dessert.  Find everyday conveniences easily with Safeway, Sprouts, Trader Joe’s, and Target nearby. Representative images. Actual products may vary at the time of community opening. Featured/planned amenities: BBQ Grills | Butterfly Garden | Playgrounds For more information, Contact Brad Daniels, My Home Group (602) 679-1025 | brad@homeselleraz.com #RelocateToAZ #CallBradToSellYourPad Disclosure:  Brad Daniels is an independent real estate agent with My Home Group and RelocateToAZ.com and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Taylor Morrison Homes or any of its affiliates. Any mention of potential savings is for informational purposes only and is not guaranteed. Terms, conditions, and availability of incentives are subject to change by the builder without notice. Buyers are encouraged to verify all details directly with the builder.

Market momentum has shifted in favor of sellers in Phoenix, Arizona, noted by the predominance of green markers, which is good news for sellers. The upward trend that began three weeks ago has gained momentum, driven by declining supply through July and August. The average monthly change in CMI now stands at 6.9%—a solid improvement over last week’s 4.5%. Fourteen cities improved for sellers, while only three—Maricopa, Tempe, and Surprise—saw gains for buyers. Paradise Valley continues to outperform, thanks to its unusually low supply.   Last week’s surprisingly weak job creation numbers triggered a drop in mortgage rates, with 30-year fixed rates now hovering near 6.55%, their lowest in 10 months. While it’s too soon to measure the impact, lower rates could spur a mild increase in demand. If rates hold steady, this—combined with falling supply—would give sellers even more reason for optimism.   However, once temperatures cool in late September, the supply decline may flatten out. At that point, we’ll be watching closely to see what new market trends emerge. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/08/2025 The shocking July BLS jobs report changed everything. The market is now fully expecting a rate cut in September, and average mortgage rates dropped to near 6.5%. Affordability is improving!  Shocking BLS jobs numbers for July. This report changed everything. The US added just 73K jobs in July (well below estimates), and the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2% (very nearly 4.3% btw). That was weak, but not terrible.   What was shocking were the revisions: the previously reported figures for May and June were revised down by a total of 258K jobs! As a result, the new May number was +19K (from +139K initially reported) and the new June number was +14K (from +147K initially reported). That’s basically no growth in employment over the last quarter. We’ve been talking about these consistently large, and usually negative, revisions for some time. In 2025, the average monthly revision has been approximately -77K jobs. These are big numbers! Would the Fed have made the same decision on July 31 if it had known that the real numbers for monthly jobs growth were so low? I don’t think so.   Federal Reserve Governor resigned.  Adriana Kugler is on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system. That means that she always gets to vote on monetary policy. Her term was scheduled to end on January 31, 2026. Instead, she’ll exit on August 8, 2025. That means that President Trump will get to appoint her replacement. Since a new Fed Chair MUST be an existing Governor, it’s possible that President Trump could use this opportunity to bring in Powell’s eventual replacement (Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026). [Federal Reserve]   The Federal Open Markets Committee (“FOMC”) has 19 members, 12 of whom vote. Of the 12, 7 are on the Board of Governors (they always get a vote). The New York Fed President also always gets a vote. The remaining 4 votes come from the other regional Fed Presidents on a rotating basis. What's your home worth in Arizona?   Mortgage rates dropped.   For the first time in a while, the bond market actually reacted to the BLS jobs revisions. This, combined with Kugler’s resignation, significantly increased the chances of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting on September 17. Think about it: the new BLS data provides ample evidence of a slowing job market, and the addition of a third Trump appointee will (almost certainly) increase the number of dovish (favoring rate cuts) FMOC members. Average 30-year mortgage rates dropped as low as 6.57%, the lowest level of the year. [Mortgage News Daily, Freddie Mac PMMS] The week before the June PCE data came out, the probability of a rate cut on September 17 was 61%. After the PCE came out (which showed an acceleration in inflation), the probability of a rate cut plunged to 39%. And how about the probability of a rate cut in September after the BLS jobs report and Kugler resignation came out? A very confident 93%! Bond and Mortgage Market   What a change a week can make! The futures market has gone from pricing in 1–2 rate cuts before year-end to 2–3. So that’s 50–75 bps of rate cuts likely. Over the course of last week, average 30-year mortgage rates dropped from 6.75% to as low as 6.57% (-18 bps). I expect to see a significant increase in refinance volumes when we get the next MBA data.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts:   Note: The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  A 93% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from just 39% a week ago)! 7% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  64% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (up from 15% a week ago). That implies a 25 bps cut at both the September 17 and October 29 meetings. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  52% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current, 40% probability that they will be 50 bps below current. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Sales of starter homes grew 3.9% year over year in June, reaching a two-year high. Their median price was $260K. Fed Chair Powell addressed home affordability in his press conference, reiterating that the Fed rate plays only a small role in mortgage rates. Despite sluggish sales, 74% of REALTORS® say they're “very certain” they'll stay in the business, showing resilience amid a shifting market. Economy Recurring unemployment claims jumped to their highest level since November 2021, indicating it’s harder for job seekers to find work. Expectations for a September Fed rate cut surged this week after last month’s jobs report revealed major downward revisions to prior data. Services activity stalled in July as orders flatlined and hiring weakened. Input costs saw their biggest jump in nearly 3 years. East Valley Weather Compared to last week in the East Valley, this week’s weather is only slightly cooler—think of it as turning down the oven from “broil” to “still basically broil.” Here’s the difference: Last week:  Many days topped 112–114 °F , with several afternoons pushing near record highs. This week:  Early week still hits 111 °F , but mid-to-late week slides down to 102–105 °F  by Saturday. Overnight lows:  Last week hovered around 88–90 °F; this week will ease slightly to the low 80s by the weekend. Have a great weekend, and I appreciate all your referrals.

The trend that began two weeks ago has not only continued—it’s gained steam. Over the past month,  the Seller’s Market has strengthened in Phoenix, Arizona . The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* has accelerated to +4.5%, a significant jump from +2.7% last week. Eleven cities have improved for sellers, while only six have seen conditions improve for buyers. Once again, Paradise Valley is a major driver of this trend. With only 98 single-family homes currently listed, inventory is approaching historic lows. For context, there were 136 listings this time last year, and we haven’t seen inventory dip below 100 since the red-hot market of 2022.   Low supply is the key factor behind this shift. New listings are arriving at a much slower pace, which is tipping the scales—even though demand has remained relatively flat.   Not all areas are seeing gains, however. Maricopa has now taken the bottom spot on the seller-friendly list, swapping places with Buckeye. With 666 homes for sale, Maricopa's inventory stands well above its long-term average of 415, highlighting the oversupply issue in that market. Meanwhile, the luxury sector continues to outperform, with Scottsdale and Cave Creek showing the strongest improvements for sellers. Both cities benefit from limited inventory and steady interest at higher price points, further solidifying the upper end of the market as the most resilient segment in today's environment.   As always, market conditions vary by city and even by neighborhood. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s connect to talk about what this means for your plans. *(CMI) Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/01/2025 A hectic week with the FMOC meeting, jobs data (JOLTs, ADP), and inflation (PCE). Let’s take a look….   Fed kept rates on hold, but not everyone agreed.     As expected, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate range steady at 4.25–4.50%. But unusually for the consensus-loving Fed, two voters (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) dissented. They wanted a 25 basis point (0.25% = one quarter of a percentage point) cut instead. [Federal Reserve]   Most of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) votes are unanimous. It’s rare for even a single member to dissent publicly. Why? Because the Fed chairman wants to create the appearance of 100% agreement with the decision, even if there is a lot of debate going on behind the scenes. That’s why having two voters dissent is shocking, at least by Fed standards. If you’d like to learn more about how the Fed works, I highly encourage you to read Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Fed Up”. JOLTs: Job openings contracted.    That’s right, it’s jobs week again! We started with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed that employers had 7.4 million job openings in May, down 4% from 7.7 million in April. Both hiring and firing activity remained very low. Companies aren’t confident enough to hire more workers, and workers aren’t certain they can find better pay elsewhere. [BLS]   ADP: Private job growth rebounded.    Private employers added 104K jobs in June. That was better than expected (~75K) and a significant improvement from the 23K jobs LOST in May. Wage growth stayed at +4.4% YoY. [ADP]   Finally! BLS Data Reflects Reality   The July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed just 73,000 new jobs created, falling short of the 110,000 estimate. While the raw data actually indicated over 1 million job losses, seasonal adjustments and the often-debated Birth/Death model helped boost the headline number into positive territory. Without that model, job growth would’ve likely been negative.   It’s also important to note that previous months were quietly revised downward by a combined 258,000 jobs! May’s job count, which was initially reported as 139,000 and later revised to 144,000, has now been slashed to just 19,000. June’s numbers were also adjusted down from 147,000 to only 14,000, with another possible revision still ahead.   These ongoing changes highlight how unstable the job data has been this year, with average monthly revisions exceeding 77,000 jobs, more than double last year’s average. So even though July’s report shows growth on paper, there's a strong chance it will be revised lower in the months ahead.   In terms of sector details, private sector hiring totaled 83,000, with most gains in education and healthcare. However, even those figures were flattened after prior data were revised. Bond and Mortgage Market   You might think that two people dissenting at the latest FOMC meeting might INCREASE the probability of rate cuts at the upcoming meetings. Instead, the opposite happened. That’s because Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered some fairly hawkish commentary at his post-meeting press conference. In a nutshell, he said that uncertainty remained high and that the impact of tariffs would be more noticeable in the inflation figures in the coming months.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. A rate cut at the September meeting is no longer fully priced in. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   September 17 FOMC Meeting:  Only a 39% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down from 61% a week ago)! 61% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  38% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. There is a 48% probability that rates will be 25 bps below the current rate. There is a 15% probability that rates will be 50 bps below the current rate. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  41% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current. There is a 35% probability that rates will be 50 bps below the current rate (same as last week). 19% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50% Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Sales of starter homes grew 3.9% year over year in June, reaching a two-year high. Their median price was $260K. Fed Chair Powell addressed home affordability in his press conference, reiterating that the Fed rate plays only a small role in mortgage rates. According to ICE, mortgage payment delinquencies rose month over month in June, while foreclosures trended higher year over year. Economy The Fed held policy rates steady at this week’s meeting, as it monitors the economic and inflationary fallout from tariffs. June's PCE inflation index increased at one of the fastest paces this year, while consumer spending barely rose, demonstrating the effects of tariffs. Multiple reports this week showed the labor market remains resilient, supporting the Fed's stance to hold policy rates steady. Housing Market Sales of starter homes grew 3.9% year over year in June, reaching a two-year high. Their median price was $260K. Fed Chair Powell addressed home affordability in his press conference, reiterating that the Fed rate plays only a small role in mortgage rates. According to ICE, mortgage payment delinquencies rose month over month in June, while foreclosures trended higher year over year. Economy The Fed held policy rates steady at this week’s meeting, as it monitors the economic and inflationary fallout from tariffs. June's PCE inflation index increased at one of the fastest paces this year, while consumer spending barely rose, demonstrating the effects of tariffs. Multiple reports this week showed the labor market remains resilient, supporting the Fed's stance to hold policy rates steady. 🔥 East Valley Weather 🔥 Have a great week, and don't forget to Call Brad To Sell Your Pad!

The backyard of the 3,090 square-foot lot was allegedly awarded to a scorned wife in 1925. Courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services Seattle is full of charming and historic homes, but few are as unique — or as dramatic — as the city’s famed “Spite House.” Recently sold for $745,000, this quirky, wedge-shaped residence in the Montlake neighborhood has captured national attention, not just for its architecture but for the juicy story behind it. A Slice of Revenge Built in 1925, the home is widely believed to be the result of a bitter divorce. According to former owner Emily Cangie, who gave a tour of the property in 2023 to YouTuber Kirsten Dirksen, the legend goes like this: rather than sell their marital home and split the proceeds, the divorcing couple divided the lot  itself. The wife — allegedly out for revenge — was awarded a narrow, 3,090-square-foot slice of the front yard, while her ex-husband kept the original house. So, in a bold move, she decided to build a new home right in front of his… intentionally blocking his view. Find out what your Arizona home is worth. The story goes that she decided to build a house to block his view in the front yard The widest side of the "Spite House" spans 15 feet—courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services. Looks Can Be Deceiving From the street, the blue stucco home appears to be a quaint Spanish Revival-style cottage. But take a walk around it, and you’ll quickly realize something’s different. One side of the house measures 15 feet wide. The other? Just 55 inches — less than 5 feet! It’s a real-life architectural optical illusion. Despite its narrow footprint, the home offers an impressive 860 square feet of living space, spread evenly over two levels. Inside, it includes: 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms A full kitchen Living room and family room Full-sized appliances (yes, even a dishwasher and washer/dryer!) Relocating to Arizona? Get your relocation guide. Cangie noted that while the bathrooms were reminiscent of New York closets, she lived comfortably in the home. Listing agent Rob McGarty of Bushwick Real Estate even showed off the kitchen in a tour for Tiny House Giant Journey , proudly comparing it to some of the best found in Manhattan’s East Village. The narrow kitchen boasts full-sized appliances, courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services. Small Space, Big Potential The lower level of the home features a separate entrance, making it perfect as a guest suite, Airbnb, or accessory dwelling unit — a valuable option in a high-demand neighborhood like Montlake. Speaking of which, Montlake homes had a median sales price of over $1.5 million in May 2025, according to Redfin. So while the “Spite House” may be small, the $745,000 sale price was a relatively affordable way for someone to grab a unique slice of this prestigious neighborhood — and of Seattle history.

Phoenix, Arizona Market Update: Seller Momentum Gains, but Demand Still Lags As of July 23, 2025 . The shift we started to see last week has officially gained momentum—Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding cities are experiencing a market shift back in favor of sellers. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) is up an average of 2.7% month-over-month, a notable jump from just 0.4% last week. Here’s what’s driving the change:   🔺 10 cities improved for sellers, while only seven became more favorable for buyers.🔺 Paradise Valley remains a standout, thanks to extremely low inventory—only 104 single-family homes are currently for sale. That’s down from 140 this time last year and well below the long-term average of 274.🔻 Supply is tightening across many parts of the Valley, and the surge of new listings we saw earlier in 2025 appears to be tapering off. But don’t let this trend fool you—it’s not a full-blown seller's market just yet. Buyer demand remains weak and hasn’t shown any signs of picking up. The positive movement for sellers is being driven largely by reduced competition, not an influx of motivated buyers. 📉 Cities still facing headwinds for sellers: Avondale (notably weaker) Fountain Hills Mesa Tempe Gilbert Surprise Maricopa 📈 Cities gaining traction for sellers: Cave Creek (+11%) Glendale Scottsdale Goodyear Lastly, the monthly average sales price per square foot has declined sharply over the past few months—an indicator that, while the market may favor sellers in terms of competition, pricing power remains under pressure. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 07/25/2025 Let’s take a look at what happened this past week, which included a rare presidential visit to the Federal Reserve…..   The Federal Reserve will meet next week    On July 30, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet to discuss the US economy and set interest rate policy. The market overwhelmingly expects that the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate target range steady at 4.25%-4.50%. In other words, no rate cut. [Sources: Federal Reserve & CME]   After starting to cut rates in late 2024, the Fed has been on “pause” for all of 2025. Why? First, because inflation (“core” PCE) has failed to make much progress this year. In January 2025, “core” PCE was rising at +2.7% year-over-year. And in June 2025? Also +2.7% YoY. The Fed’s target is +2.0% second, because the labor market has remained tight, with the latest unemployment rate reading at 4.1%.   In a rare presidential visit to the Fed, Trump toured the $2.5 billion renovation site of the Marriner Eccles building and referred to Jerome Powell as a “very good man.” Rather than the usual verbal firestorm, this meeting was unusually cordial—but it did spotlight questions over cost overruns and compliance with planning rules. Trump even floated using the cost concerns as grounds to remove Powell “for cause,” though constitutional experts note this is legally restricted.   Growing Dissent Within the Fed?   It’s rare—but possible—that two dissenting governors could vote for a rate cut at the same meeting. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman (both Trump appointees) are pushing for easing, while the Chair stays firm. This could be the first double dissent the Fed has seen in over 30 years—a sign of rising tension around economic strategy.   Bond and Mortgage Market   Average 30-year mortgage rates were essentially unchanged this week, which was actually surprising considering the huge upward moves in the stock market AND the continued rise in global bond yields (notably Japan). Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   July 30 FOMC Meeting:  97% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (up from last week). So, no rate cut expected. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  61% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 59%). This implies a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting. 37% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  31% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down from 35% last week). 19% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. Wealth Through Homeownership   Over the last five years, the average homeowner has gained $140,900 in equity.  That growth didn’t happen overnight, and it’s not too late to start building your future. If you’re still on the fence about buying, reach out to see how housing can create significant, long-term wealth for your family. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market The median home price reached a record high of $435,300 in June, representing a 2% increase over the same period last year. Price gains were greater at the higher end of the market. Existing home sales fell to a 9-month low in June. Mortgage rates and uncertainty sidelined buyers, deepening the housing market slump. New home sales remained weak in June, falling short of estimates. Builder incentives couldn’t overcome buyers’ resistance to higher costs. Economy Jobless claims fell for a 6th week, underscoring the resilience of the labor market. Continuing claims held steady at 1.96 million. Consumer sentiment rose in July to its highest level since February. Inflation fears eased, though concerns about future prices lingered. Leading indicators suggest the U.S. economy will slow. Tariffs are expected to drive up prices and weigh more heavily in the year's 2nd half. East Valley Weather Have a great week!