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The trend that began two weeks ago has not only continued—it’s gained steam. Over the past month,  the Seller’s Market has strengthened in Phoenix, Arizona . The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* has accelerated to +4.5%, a significant jump from +2.7% last week. Eleven cities have improved for sellers, while only six have seen conditions improve for buyers. Once again, Paradise Valley is a major driver of this trend. With only 98 single-family homes currently listed, inventory is approaching historic lows. For context, there were 136 listings this time last year, and we haven’t seen inventory dip below 100 since the red-hot market of 2022.   Low supply is the key factor behind this shift. New listings are arriving at a much slower pace, which is tipping the scales—even though demand has remained relatively flat.   Not all areas are seeing gains, however. Maricopa has now taken the bottom spot on the seller-friendly list, swapping places with Buckeye. With 666 homes for sale, Maricopa's inventory stands well above its long-term average of 415, highlighting the oversupply issue in that market. Meanwhile, the luxury sector continues to outperform, with Scottsdale and Cave Creek showing the strongest improvements for sellers. Both cities benefit from limited inventory and steady interest at higher price points, further solidifying the upper end of the market as the most resilient segment in today's environment.   As always, market conditions vary by city and even by neighborhood. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s connect to talk about what this means for your plans. *(CMI) Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 08/01/2025 A hectic week with the FMOC meeting, jobs data (JOLTs, ADP), and inflation (PCE). Let’s take a look….   Fed kept rates on hold, but not everyone agreed.     As expected, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate range steady at 4.25–4.50%. But unusually for the consensus-loving Fed, two voters (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) dissented. They wanted a 25 basis point (0.25% = one quarter of a percentage point) cut instead. [Federal Reserve]   Most of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) votes are unanimous. It’s rare for even a single member to dissent publicly. Why? Because the Fed chairman wants to create the appearance of 100% agreement with the decision, even if there is a lot of debate going on behind the scenes. That’s why having two voters dissent is shocking, at least by Fed standards. If you’d like to learn more about how the Fed works, I highly encourage you to read Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Fed Up”. JOLTs: Job openings contracted.    That’s right, it’s jobs week again! We started with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed that employers had 7.4 million job openings in May, down 4% from 7.7 million in April. Both hiring and firing activity remained very low. Companies aren’t confident enough to hire more workers, and workers aren’t certain they can find better pay elsewhere. [BLS]   ADP: Private job growth rebounded.    Private employers added 104K jobs in June. That was better than expected (~75K) and a significant improvement from the 23K jobs LOST in May. Wage growth stayed at +4.4% YoY. [ADP]   Finally! BLS Data Reflects Reality   The July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed just 73,000 new jobs created, falling short of the 110,000 estimate. While the raw data actually indicated over 1 million job losses, seasonal adjustments and the often-debated Birth/Death model helped boost the headline number into positive territory. Without that model, job growth would’ve likely been negative.   It’s also important to note that previous months were quietly revised downward by a combined 258,000 jobs! May’s job count, which was initially reported as 139,000 and later revised to 144,000, has now been slashed to just 19,000. June’s numbers were also adjusted down from 147,000 to only 14,000, with another possible revision still ahead.   These ongoing changes highlight how unstable the job data has been this year, with average monthly revisions exceeding 77,000 jobs, more than double last year’s average. So even though July’s report shows growth on paper, there's a strong chance it will be revised lower in the months ahead.   In terms of sector details, private sector hiring totaled 83,000, with most gains in education and healthcare. However, even those figures were flattened after prior data were revised. Bond and Mortgage Market   You might think that two people dissenting at the latest FOMC meeting might INCREASE the probability of rate cuts at the upcoming meetings. Instead, the opposite happened. That’s because Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered some fairly hawkish commentary at his post-meeting press conference. In a nutshell, he said that uncertainty remained high and that the impact of tariffs would be more noticeable in the inflation figures in the coming months.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. A rate cut at the September meeting is no longer fully priced in. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   September 17 FOMC Meeting:  Only a 39% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down from 61% a week ago)! 61% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  38% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. There is a 48% probability that rates will be 25 bps below the current rate. There is a 15% probability that rates will be 50 bps below the current rate. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  41% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current. There is a 35% probability that rates will be 50 bps below the current rate (same as last week). 19% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50% Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Sales of starter homes grew 3.9% year over year in June, reaching a two-year high. Their median price was $260K. Fed Chair Powell addressed home affordability in his press conference, reiterating that the Fed rate plays only a small role in mortgage rates. According to ICE, mortgage payment delinquencies rose month over month in June, while foreclosures trended higher year over year. Economy The Fed held policy rates steady at this week’s meeting, as it monitors the economic and inflationary fallout from tariffs. June's PCE inflation index increased at one of the fastest paces this year, while consumer spending barely rose, demonstrating the effects of tariffs. Multiple reports this week showed the labor market remains resilient, supporting the Fed's stance to hold policy rates steady. Housing Market Sales of starter homes grew 3.9% year over year in June, reaching a two-year high. Their median price was $260K. Fed Chair Powell addressed home affordability in his press conference, reiterating that the Fed rate plays only a small role in mortgage rates. According to ICE, mortgage payment delinquencies rose month over month in June, while foreclosures trended higher year over year. Economy The Fed held policy rates steady at this week’s meeting, as it monitors the economic and inflationary fallout from tariffs. June's PCE inflation index increased at one of the fastest paces this year, while consumer spending barely rose, demonstrating the effects of tariffs. Multiple reports this week showed the labor market remains resilient, supporting the Fed's stance to hold policy rates steady. 🔥 East Valley Weather 🔥 Have a great week, and don't forget to Call Brad To Sell Your Pad!

The backyard of the 3,090 square-foot lot was allegedly awarded to a scorned wife in 1925. Courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services Seattle is full of charming and historic homes, but few are as unique — or as dramatic — as the city’s famed “Spite House.” Recently sold for $745,000, this quirky, wedge-shaped residence in the Montlake neighborhood has captured national attention, not just for its architecture but for the juicy story behind it. A Slice of Revenge Built in 1925, the home is widely believed to be the result of a bitter divorce. According to former owner Emily Cangie, who gave a tour of the property in 2023 to YouTuber Kirsten Dirksen, the legend goes like this: rather than sell their marital home and split the proceeds, the divorcing couple divided the lot  itself. The wife — allegedly out for revenge — was awarded a narrow, 3,090-square-foot slice of the front yard, while her ex-husband kept the original house. So, in a bold move, she decided to build a new home right in front of his… intentionally blocking his view. Find out what your Arizona home is worth. The story goes that she decided to build a house to block his view in the front yard The widest side of the "Spite House" spans 15 feet—courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services. Looks Can Be Deceiving From the street, the blue stucco home appears to be a quaint Spanish Revival-style cottage. But take a walk around it, and you’ll quickly realize something’s different. One side of the house measures 15 feet wide. The other? Just 55 inches — less than 5 feet! It’s a real-life architectural optical illusion. Despite its narrow footprint, the home offers an impressive 860 square feet of living space, spread evenly over two levels. Inside, it includes: 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms A full kitchen Living room and family room Full-sized appliances (yes, even a dishwasher and washer/dryer!) Relocating to Arizona? Get your relocation guide. Cangie noted that while the bathrooms were reminiscent of New York closets, she lived comfortably in the home. Listing agent Rob McGarty of Bushwick Real Estate even showed off the kitchen in a tour for Tiny House Giant Journey , proudly comparing it to some of the best found in Manhattan’s East Village. The narrow kitchen boasts full-sized appliances, courtesy of Rob McGarty at Bushwick Real Estate Services. Small Space, Big Potential The lower level of the home features a separate entrance, making it perfect as a guest suite, Airbnb, or accessory dwelling unit — a valuable option in a high-demand neighborhood like Montlake. Speaking of which, Montlake homes had a median sales price of over $1.5 million in May 2025, according to Redfin. So while the “Spite House” may be small, the $745,000 sale price was a relatively affordable way for someone to grab a unique slice of this prestigious neighborhood — and of Seattle history.

Phoenix, Arizona Market Update: Seller Momentum Gains, but Demand Still Lags As of July 23, 2025 . The shift we started to see last week has officially gained momentum—Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding cities are experiencing a market shift back in favor of sellers. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) is up an average of 2.7% month-over-month, a notable jump from just 0.4% last week. Here’s what’s driving the change:   🔺 10 cities improved for sellers, while only seven became more favorable for buyers.🔺 Paradise Valley remains a standout, thanks to extremely low inventory—only 104 single-family homes are currently for sale. That’s down from 140 this time last year and well below the long-term average of 274.🔻 Supply is tightening across many parts of the Valley, and the surge of new listings we saw earlier in 2025 appears to be tapering off. But don’t let this trend fool you—it’s not a full-blown seller's market just yet. Buyer demand remains weak and hasn’t shown any signs of picking up. The positive movement for sellers is being driven largely by reduced competition, not an influx of motivated buyers. 📉 Cities still facing headwinds for sellers: Avondale (notably weaker) Fountain Hills Mesa Tempe Gilbert Surprise Maricopa 📈 Cities gaining traction for sellers: Cave Creek (+11%) Glendale Scottsdale Goodyear Lastly, the monthly average sales price per square foot has declined sharply over the past few months—an indicator that, while the market may favor sellers in terms of competition, pricing power remains under pressure. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 07/25/2025 Let’s take a look at what happened this past week, which included a rare presidential visit to the Federal Reserve…..   The Federal Reserve will meet next week    On July 30, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet to discuss the US economy and set interest rate policy. The market overwhelmingly expects that the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate target range steady at 4.25%-4.50%. In other words, no rate cut. [Sources: Federal Reserve & CME]   After starting to cut rates in late 2024, the Fed has been on “pause” for all of 2025. Why? First, because inflation (“core” PCE) has failed to make much progress this year. In January 2025, “core” PCE was rising at +2.7% year-over-year. And in June 2025? Also +2.7% YoY. The Fed’s target is +2.0% second, because the labor market has remained tight, with the latest unemployment rate reading at 4.1%.   In a rare presidential visit to the Fed, Trump toured the $2.5 billion renovation site of the Marriner Eccles building and referred to Jerome Powell as a “very good man.” Rather than the usual verbal firestorm, this meeting was unusually cordial—but it did spotlight questions over cost overruns and compliance with planning rules. Trump even floated using the cost concerns as grounds to remove Powell “for cause,” though constitutional experts note this is legally restricted.   Growing Dissent Within the Fed?   It’s rare—but possible—that two dissenting governors could vote for a rate cut at the same meeting. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman (both Trump appointees) are pushing for easing, while the Chair stays firm. This could be the first double dissent the Fed has seen in over 30 years—a sign of rising tension around economic strategy.   Bond and Mortgage Market   Average 30-year mortgage rates were essentially unchanged this week, which was actually surprising considering the huge upward moves in the stock market AND the continued rise in global bond yields (notably Japan). Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   July 30 FOMC Meeting:  97% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (up from last week). So, no rate cut expected. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  61% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 59%). This implies a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting. 37% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  31% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down from 35% last week). 19% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. Wealth Through Homeownership   Over the last five years, the average homeowner has gained $140,900 in equity.  That growth didn’t happen overnight, and it’s not too late to start building your future. If you’re still on the fence about buying, reach out to see how housing can create significant, long-term wealth for your family. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market The median home price reached a record high of $435,300 in June, representing a 2% increase over the same period last year. Price gains were greater at the higher end of the market. Existing home sales fell to a 9-month low in June. Mortgage rates and uncertainty sidelined buyers, deepening the housing market slump. New home sales remained weak in June, falling short of estimates. Builder incentives couldn’t overcome buyers’ resistance to higher costs. Economy Jobless claims fell for a 6th week, underscoring the resilience of the labor market. Continuing claims held steady at 1.96 million. Consumer sentiment rose in July to its highest level since February. Inflation fears eased, though concerns about future prices lingered. Leading indicators suggest the U.S. economy will slow. Tariffs are expected to drive up prices and weigh more heavily in the year's 2nd half. East Valley Weather Have a great week!

Front Elevation, Mayne Derert Contemporary Earlier this week, I had the opportunity to preview a truly stunning home in Scottsdale’s exclusive Reserve at Black Mountain  for a couple relocating from California — and I couldn’t be more impressed. This brand-new luxury residence  is move-in ready and offers not only top-tier design and features but also the kind of lifestyle that many buyers dream of when they relocate to Arizona. Move-In Ready with Luxury Upgrades No waiting. No compromises. This move-in-ready home  has been thoughtfully designed with high-end finishes and modern conveniences  throughout. As you approach, you’ll notice the beautifully landscaped front yard taking shape — a perfect preview of what’s inside this home. Step into a bright, open-concept layout  featuring elevated ceilings  and seamless indoor-outdoor living. Whether you’re entertaining or relaxing, the  20-foot sliding glass door in the great room ,  the 16-foot slider in the bonus room , and the  12-foot slider in the primary suite  make it effortless to enjoy the Arizona sunshine and scenery year-round in Scottsdale’s exclusive Reserve at Black Mountain Flexible Floor Plan with Guest Casita One standout feature is the attached guest casita , complete with its living room and full bathroom . Whether you’re hosting friends, accommodating multi-generational family members, or seeking a private retreat or home office, this flexible space is a game-changer. Gourmet Kitchen Built for Entertaining The chef’s kitchen is a dream: Stainless Steel Wolf appliances 48” Sub-Zero refrigerator Waterfall-edge island  perfect for prepping meals or gathering with guests Everything is thoughtfully laid out to strike a balance between beauty and function. Garage Goals The spacious 3-car garage  features epoxy-coated floors  and a tankless water heater  — another sign of the builder’s attention to quality and detail. Perfectly Situated in a Private Gated Community This home is located on a north/south-facing lot in a quiet cul-de-sac  within a gated community  — a peaceful and private setting with stunning desert surroundings. It truly captures the essence of upscale Arizona living. If you’re relocating to Arizona and want a home that’s truly move-in ready , this one deserves a closer look. Reach out to me to schedule a private showing or a virtual walk-through. 📞 Call/Text: (602) 679-1025 email: brad@homeselleraz.com 🌐 Learn more at: https://www.flexmls.com/share/CX1IC/35065-N-83RD-PL-4-Scottsdale-AZ-85266

For Buyers Welcome to July in Phoenix, where it’s so hot we saw a bird pull a worm out of the ground with an oven mitt. The peak buying season is officially over, and while both supply and demand kicked off with a bang in the first quarter, the second quarter was a dud due to increased mortgage rates and market volatility. Where Have Home Prices Dropped the Most in Phoenix and surrounding cities?   By the end of May, many sellers had given up and decided to cancel their listings or let them expire. Cancelled listings were up 46% in June compared to last year, and expired listings were up 79%. At the same time, the number of new listings added weekly to the MLS dropped 24% from week 22 (Memorial Day) to week 27 (Independence Day). All factors combined, the result was an 8% drop in overall supply over the last 5 weeks.   While all price ranges are seeing an impact, the most significant percentage inventory drop was recorded for those over $800,000, with a 14% decline, compared with under $800,000 at just a 5% drop. The increase in cancelled and expired listings on the high end is expected seasonally, as June is typically the peak month for luxury sellers to withdraw; however, this is not to this extent. For example, Paradise Valley experienced a 39% decrease in active supply over the past six weeks, but contracts in escrow declined by only 5%. Ironically, this pushed Paradise Valley out of a balanced market and into the 3rd strongest seller’s market this month, the opposite of what most would expect during the heat of a Phoenix summer. As for the lower end of the market, single-family homes between $250K-$300 are up 38% in June sales, with a nice bounce in new contracts over the week of the 4th of July. Single-family homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000 have seen a 10% increase in sales. Both of these price ranges have seen prices drop an average of 3.5% since last year. Condos in the same range have fallen 5.5% in price and are down 11% in sales compared to last June. Mid-range homes in the $500K-$800 range are seeing unremarkable changes in both price and June sales volume.   As prices continue to drift down in this buyer’s market, contract activity is expected to improve compared to last summer. Phoenix, what's your home's value?   For Sellers It’s business as usual for sellers, as 55% of sales closed last month. Sellers contributed a median of $10,000 to the buyers’ closing costs, and negotiations averaged 97.1% of the list price. Sales volume is about even with last year, but supply is still up 41% despite recent declines over the past few weeks, keeping sellers at a disadvantage in most areas. This means that many prices are coming down in Phoenix and its surrounding cities.   The median time on market prior to an accepted contract is 44 days, unless you’re selling a condo or townhome, in which case it’s 59 days. While buyers are negotiating to 97.1% of the last list price, it’s not consistent across all price ranges and property types. Lower price ranges will often see less of a negotiation on price and more on closing cost assistance, repairs, and upgrade requests. Upper price ranges allow for more negotiation on the price. For example, single-family homes priced between $ 300,000 and $400,000 are negotiating within 99.1% of the list price, whereas closings of condos/townhomes in the same price range are within 97.7% of the list price. This can result in a price difference of $4,000-$6,000 in negotiations, as there are fewer large items to negotiate in a condo compared to a single-family home. Single-family homes in the higher price ranges, over $1 million, are seeing negotiations within 95%-96% of the list price.   Large negotiation gaps don’t necessarily mean sales prices are declining, and small gaps don’t mean prices are rising. Sellers often list their properties at a high price to maximize the sale price; sometimes the market obliges them, and sometimes it denies them. The gap between the original list price and the final sale price, which can involve both price reductions and negotiations, is simply the difference between a seller’s expectation of price and what the market is willing to bear. Buyer’s markets are less obliged to grant sellers their price wishes.   June sales prices for properties under $400K were down an average of 4.5% from last year. The $400,000-$600,000 range was down 2.4%. Mid-range prices, ranging from $ 600,000 to $1.5 million, remained flat, with a 0.1% to 0.8% increase over the previous year. Higher-range prices, exceeding $1.5 million, where buyers tend to negotiate harder on price, appreciated by an average of 4.4%.   Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 07/18/2025 Let’s take a look at what happened this past week to affect interest rates and real estate.   No Tax on Home Sales Act.    This new bill, if passed, would eliminate capital gains taxes on the sale of a primary residence. In addition to saving millions of homeowners tens of thousands of dollars each, it could also increase the supply of homes for sale (by removing a powerful disincentive to sell). Under the current law, there is a $250,000 exclusion for single filers and a $500,000 exclusion for married filers. However, those exclusion amounts were fixed in 1997, when home prices were significantly lower. It was never the government’s intention to tax Joe Q Citizen on primary home sales.   June CPI moved in the wrong direction.    In May, the CPI (Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation for you and me) surprised to the downside. In June, that reversed, with annual “headline” CPI accelerating to +2.7% YoY (from +2.4% YoY in May), and annual “core” CPI rising to +2.9% YoY (from +2.8% YoY). Remember: the CPI index gives a massive weighting to shelter costs (~44% of “core” CPI), and the Fed pays more attention to “core” PCE.   The media linked the increase in annual inflation to Trump’s tariffs, but it’s not that simple. The main reason for the yearly inflation increase is what analysts call “tough comps”. In June 2025, “core” CPI only grew 0.2% MoM. But in June 2024, it grew by +0.1%. By swapping out June 2024 and swapping in June 2025, you end up with 0.1% growth in the annual figure.   BTW, I was also quite encouraged by the low growth in shelter costs in June (+0.18% MoM, +3.8% YoY), as well as the drop in prices for both new (-0.3% MoM) and used (-0.7% MoM) cars. These are much larger items (in terms of their weighting in the index) than the tennis shoes and wall coverings that saw significant price increases due to (ostensibly) tariff effects.   June PPI was better than expected.    In June, “headline” PPI (Producer Price Index = inflation for businesses) was flat MoM — much better than expectations of +0.2% MoM. “Core” PPI was also flat MoM. However, the figure for May was also revised higher (to +0.3% MoM), making the June result appear lower. Average the two results, and you get +0.1% MoM — not much at all.   One Big Beautiful Bill Act Wins for Homeowners   Regardless of where you fall politically, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act can be viewed as a big win for real estate: it extended and/or permanently enshrined many tax breaks for homeowners. Bond and Mortgage Market   It’s been a rough two weeks for bond yields and mortgage rates. The June BLS jobs report was stronger than expected (falling unemployment rate, +147K jobs added). The June CPI report showed accelerating annual inflation. Oh, and government bond yields have been rising across the globe (UK, Europe, Japan).   While higher bond yields don’t directly translate into higher mortgage rates, they usually trend together. As a result, average 30-year mortgage rates have moved from 6.67% two weeks ago to 6.85% this week.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   July 30 FOMC Meeting:  95% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (unchanged last week). The June CPI report had little impact. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  59% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (down from 63%). This implies a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting. 38% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. October 29 FOMC Meeting:  35% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down from 39% last week). 16% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market The NAHB reports homebuilders are slashing prices at the fastest pace in 3 years as buyer demand weakens amid broader economic concerns. The recently passed budget slightly boosted builder confidence in June, although confidence has remained in negative territory for 15 months. Housing inventory was up 29% year over year in June, and nearly one-third of major U.S. housing markets are now seeing falling home prices. Economy Inflation data for June revealed higher prices on goods such as coffee and furniture, indicating that tariffs are starting to impact consumers. Retail sales rebounded more than expected in June. Some of the increase is likely reflected in higher prices for some tariff-exposed products. In a conflicting sign over the threat of tariffs on inflation, wholesale prices showed no change in June. This week's weather in Mesa, Arizona

July 2025 Phoenix Housing Market Update: Seller Conditions Still Soft, But Declines Are Slowing. Another week brings another dip in the Greater Phoenix housing market for sellers—but there’s a silver lining. The average monthly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* now sits at -1.7%, a notable improvement from last week’s -2.7%. This suggests that while the market continues to tilt in favor of buyers, the rate of change is easing. Greater Phoenix Housing Trends July 7th, 2025   Only two cities are currently showing improving conditions for sellers. Paradise Valley remains the strongest performer, climbing an impressive 25% over the past month. Cave Creek has also reversed course, bouncing back into a balanced market after slipping into buyer territory.   Meanwhile, 15 cities declined, though most saw only modest drops. Avondale took the hardest hit, down 10%, followed by Buckeye and Fountain Hills, each down 7%.   Here’s where the balance currently stands: 2 cities are seller’s markets (one very weak) 8 cities are balanced 7 cities are buyer’s markets   🏡  June 2025 Market Stats  – Maricopa County Affidavits of Value The data for June closings has been analyzed, and here’s what we’re seeing in the Phoenix Housing Market Update for July 2025   Total closed transactions: 6,621⬇️ Down 0.2% from June 2024⬇️ Down 6.5% from May 2025   New home sales: 1,379⬇️ Down 13% year-over-year⬇️ Down 8.2% from May   Re-sale transactions: 5,242⬆️ Up 3.8% year-over-year⬇️ Down 6.0% from May   Overall median sales price: $480,000⬆️ Up 1.1% from June 2024⬇️ Down 1.0% from May   New home median price: $528,349⬆️ Up 4.9% from June 2024⬆️ Up 1.6% from May   Re-sale median price: $459,994⬇️ Down 1.1% from June 2024⬇️ Down 2.3% from May   While June 2025 had 20 working days, versus 19 in June 2024, suggesting we should have seen about 5% more closings, the market didn’t quite deliver. Resale closings grew nearly 4%, which isn’t far off expectations. However, new home closings fell sharply—down 13%—marking their weakest June since 2019. Builders are likely to slow their start volumes to focus on moving current inventory, especially spec homes and those under construction.   💡 Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers The overall market isn't great for sellers, but it isn’t collapsing either. Resale prices are down slightly year-over-year, but that translates into greater affordability when adjusted for inflation (latest CPI at 2.4%). For buyers, especially those who have felt priced out over the past few years, this shift could be a welcome opportunity.   As always, staying informed with real-time data is crucial for making the right move, whether you're buying, selling, or simply watching the market. The Cromford Market Index is a value that provides a short-term forecast for the market balance. It is derived from the trends in pending, active, and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 7/4/2025 It was a shortened week this past week with the 4th of July holiday.  But let’s take a look at what happened and what is moving interest rates.  The 1Q 2025 GDP became significantly more negative.   First quarter GDP was revised lower, from -0.2% annualized to -0.5% annualized. The downgrade was driven mostly by lower consumer spending, which was revised to +0.5% (from +1.2% previously). US GDP had grown at +2.4% in the previous quarter (4Q 2024). [BEA] There are three readings of quarterly GDP: ‘advanced’, ‘preliminary’ (1st revision) and ‘final’ (2nd revision). This was the final reading. While the 1Q ended before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on April 2, a rush to import products in advance of the tariffs created a significant drag on GDP because net export (exports minus imports) has been negative for the US for decades.   “Core” PCE (inflation) accelerated in May [BEA]   There are two ways to look at this report:   Negative: +0.2% MoM for “core” PCE was higher than expectations of +0.1% MoM. And because monthly “core” PCE was flat in May 2024, annual “core” PCE accelerated to +2.7% YoY in May 2025 (from +2.6% YoY in April 2025). Are we starting to see the impact of tariffs? Positive: 0.2% monthly inflation is still very low inflation. If you annualize the last 3 months of monthly “Core” PCE, you get +1.6% YoY — way below the Fed’s 2% target I think the optimistic viewpoint makes a lot more sense. This report, combined with the final revision to 1Q 2025 GDP (to -0.5% YoY) and the weak ADP numbers (see below), should provide Fed members with sufficient evidence to at least consider cutting rates on July 30.   ADP: Private employers shed jobs in June   After very weak job growth in May (+37,000), Wall Street economists were expecting a rebound in June (~100,000 estimated). Instead, ADP reported that private employers dropped a net 33,000 jobs. Breaking that down further, the services sector lost 66,000 jobs, and small and medium-sized companies lost 62,000 jobs.   Mortgage Market   Potential buyers got a little bit of relief this last week, with average mortgage rates trending lower on comments from various Fed members (rate cut possible in July) and the much weaker than expected ADP job numbers.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   July 30 FOMC Meeting:  75% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 83% last week). 25% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 17% last week), which means one 25 bps rate cut. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  73% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 57%). This implies one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both. 24% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings). October 29 FOMC Meeting:  57% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (two rate cuts throughout the next three meetings). There is a 17% probability that rates will be 75 bps below the current level. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  Roughly 47% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current. To sum up, the market is pricing in 2–3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each before year-end. That’s one cut more than Fed members are (in general) expecting. Market in a Minute...National View Housing Market Construction spending declined in May as higher mortgage rates and rising inventory levels impacted single-family housing projects. Thirty percent of Boomers say they’ll never sell their home, and another 30% have no plans to sell in the next decade, according to a recent survey. Mortgage purchase applications increased just 0.1% for the week but were 16% higher than the same week one year ago. Economy May saw fewer layoffs, while job openings jumped to their highest level since November, signaling a steady job market despite uncertainty. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, and more jobs were created than expected. Labor market strength makes a July Fed rate cut unlikely. Exports tumbled in May, widening the trade deficit, but growing domestic production may lead to a rebound in economic growth in the second quarter. What I purchased on Amazon this week for Prime Days I saved over 62% and upgraded to the nine-camera system with local storage. Installation was straightforward; however, the picture quality at night is a little disappointing. Link below ⬇️ https://a.co/d/bWdSl9l Listing Sold 8660 E Nido Ave, Mesa, AZ 85209 East Valley Weather Coming in hot 😡 Have a great week!!!

The Phoenix housing market trends in June 2025  continue to indicate a shift in momentum from sellers to buyers. According to the Cromford Market Index (CMI) , the average weekly change sits at -2.7% , matching last week’s decline. This consistent drop signals a notable cooling trend as the summer season sets in Paradise Valley Defies the Trend Of all the 17 major cities analyzed, only Paradise Valley  showed improvement for sellers over the past month, just as it did last week. PV posted a strong +15% increase in CMI , driven primarily by a sharp decline in available homes. Many high-end homeowners have opted to cancel or delay their summer listings , resulting in the lowest inventory levels since September 2024 . In fact, 34 cancellations  have been recorded in the past month alone, and with June 30 approaching, a spike in expired listings is expected to tighten inventory further. Most Cities Declining—Some More Than Others The remaining 16 cities  showed a decline in market favorability for sellers. While many changes were modest, some stood out: Buckeye  took the largest hit, falling below the neutral line of 50  with an -8% change , now firmly in buyer’s market territory. Fountain Hills  and Phoenix  followed with -6% drops , both trending further away from seller control. Cave Creek  transitioned from a balanced market into a buyer’s market. Avondale  has shifted from a seller’s market to a balanced market. Metro Phoenix Market Breakdown – June 2025 Based on the current CMI data: Seller’s Markets : 2 (1 is considered very weak) Balanced Markets : 7 Buyer’s Markets : 9 This breakdown highlights a key takeaway: if you’re  planning to buy a home in Phoenix , your timing may be ideal as  inventory increases and seller leverage weakens . Secondary City Housing Trends – Buyer’s Markets Expand Among Arizona’s secondary markets , the majority are now leaning toward buyers: 🟦 Buyer’s Markets : Arizona City Casa Grande Gold Canyon Laveen Litchfield Park Sun City Sun City West Sun Lakes 🟥 Seller’s Markets : Anthem Apache Junction El Mirage Tolleson Currently, there are  no balanced markets  among secondary cities, although  Sun Lakes  is showing early signs of transitioning as its inventory begins to decline  seasonally . 💡 What This Means for Buyers and Sellers If you’re a buyer relocating to Arizona , this market presents growing opportunities across many cities, with less competition  and increased leverage in negotiations . On the other hand, sellers  may need to adjust their pricing expectations and marketing strategies, especially in cities where demand is cooling more rapidly. 📞 Thinking of Moving to Arizona? Let’s Talk At RelocateToAZ.com , I specialize in helping buyers—especially those relocating from out of state—navigate the changing Arizona housing market with confidence. Whether you’re looking in Phoenix, Paradise Valley, or the East Valley suburbs, I’ll help you find the right home at the right price. 👉 Let’s schedule a quick consultation  to discuss your goals. Call or text me at (602) 679-1025  or start exploring at www.RelocateToAZ.com Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 06/20/2027 Due to ongoing economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve has decided to keep its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged. This environment has also contributed to a slowdown in both the construction and retail sectors. Additionally, unemployment claims are trending higher. Read on for further analysis and details.   Fed Remains Cautious, Holds Rates Steady   The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, continuing the pause that began in January. This decision, widely anticipated by analysts, reflects the Fed’s ongoing concerns about balancing the risks associated with both inflation and unemployment.   Remember: The Fed Funds Rate affects the overnight lending rate between banks, influencing broader interest rates throughout the economy, although it does not directly set mortgage or long-term rates.   What’s the bottom line?   The Fed remains committed to its dual mandate: maintaining price stability and promoting maximum employment. Achieving both goals simultaneously can be challenging, especially as new tariffs add to economic uncertainty. Typically, persistent inflation discourages rate cuts, while signs of an economic slowdown would prompt the Fed to consider lowering rates.   Looking forward, the Fed will closely watch upcoming reports on inflation and employment, as its future policy decisions may depend on which risks become more pressing. Notably, the Fed’s most recent projections for 2025 indicate that core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.1%, higher than the previous estimate of 2.8%. The unemployment rate is also projected to edge up slightly to 4.5% from the 4.4% estimate in March. Despite these uncertainties, most Fed officials still anticipate two interest rate cuts later this year.   Unemployment Claims Indicate Cracks in the Labor Market  Initial weekly jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 245,000, but this figure remains among the highest levels recorded since October. Continuing claims also dropped slightly by 6,000, bringing the total to 1.945 million. For over a year, continuing claims have remained above 1.8 million and have now been above 1.9 million for four consecutive weeks.   What’s the bottom line?  The upward trend in both initial and continuing unemployment claims underscores persistent challenges within the labor market. Furthermore, since unemployment benefits usually last only 26 weeks, the increase in continuing claims as benefits expire suggests more profound weaknesses in the job market. It indicates that hiring is proceeding at a slower pace.   Mortgage Market  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been receiving a lot of criticism lately from the President (and even the new FHFA Director, Bill Pulte) for not cutting rates. But put yourself in Powell’s shoes. You can understand his reluctance to loosen monetary policy before the actual impact of the “Liberation Day” tariffs shows up in the numbers. Remember: the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.   That said, here are my issues with the Fed’s extended ‘pause’:   The Fed lifted rates 500 bps as “headline” CPI rose from 2% (Jan 2021) to 9% (June 2022). The latest “headline” CPI figure is 2.4% (May 2025), but the Fed has only cut rates by 100 bps. In my mind, there is absolutely room to cut rates by another 50–100 bps. So much of the reported inflation is coming from “shelter” costs (rent + owner’s equivalent rent), which, due to the BLS’s collection method, captures rental market conditions from 1–1.5 years ago. The consistently negative revisions to the initial BLS jobs report, along with the very different picture we’re getting from data sources like ADP and Challenger, suggest that the labor market is far from ‘strong’.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   July 30 FOMC Meeting:  77% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (down from 83% last week). 23% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 17% last week), which means one 25 bps rate cut. September 17 FOMC Meeting:  64% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 57%). This implies one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both. 19% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings). October 29 FOMC Meeting:  47% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (two rate cuts throughout the subsequent three meetings). A 12% probability that rates will be 75 bps below the current level. December 10 FOMC Meeting:  Roughly 40% probability that rates will be 75 bps below current. To sum up, the market is pricing in 2–3 rate cuts of 25 basis points each before year-end. That’s one cut more than Fed members are (in general) expecting. Housing Market Sales of new single-family homes dropped 13.7% in May and 6.3% from a year ago, well below both the six-month and the one-year average. However, pending home sales increased in May after a sharp decline the previous month, with contract signings rising 1.8% as inventory levels eased. Home mortgage applications dropped 0.4% last week compared with the previous week, but were 11% higher than the same week a year ago. Economy Readings indicate that in June, consumers became less pessimistic about the economy and inflation, as global trade tensions showed signs of easing. Although new unemployment claims decreased last week, continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021. Some Fed members have come out saying they would like to see the Fed cut policy rates as soon as next month’s meeting, if inflation stays low. Have a great week! Brad Daniels (602) 679-1025 #CallBradToSellYourPad

The Greater Phoenix housing market remains in favor of buyers. The average weekly change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI) is now -2.7%, slightly more negative than last week's -2.5%. This reverses the three-week trend of gradually less negative movement. That said, the shift isn’t dramatic—one week doesn’t make a trend, so there’s no need to panic just yet in the Phoenix housing market update June 2025. Only one city has improved for sellers over the past month, three fewer than last week. Paradise Valley stands out with a strong +10% gain, but its small unit volume means it doesn’t influence the overall market much (despite its impressive dollar volume). Meanwhile, Surprise and Mesa, Arizona, held steady month-over-month, which is a relative win compared to the 14 cities that declined. Fortunately, no city saw double-digit drops, but Phoenix and Buckeye, Arizona, came close, each falling by 7%. Since Phoenix alone accounts for approximately 25% of the Central Arizona housing market, its decline carries more weight than PV’s gains. As of now, we have: 3 seller’s markets (2 are weak) 6 balanced markets 8 buyer’s markets Tempe shifted from balanced to buyer’s, while Chandler slipped from seller’s to balanced.   While this isn’t great news for sellers, buyers are in a particularly advantageous position. They’re benefitting from increased inventory, motivated sellers, and widespread concessions—including mortgage rate buydown incentives from both resale and new home builders. We haven’t seen such favorable conditions for buyers since March 2009.   Paradise Valley’s performance reflects strength in the stock and crypto markets. Unfortunately, the bond market continues to struggle, which keeps mortgage rates elevated. Many consumers mistakenly believe the Federal Reserve directly controls mortgage rates, but the real driver is the 10-year Treasury yield, and demand for T-bills is currently low. A declining U.S. dollar has weakened foreign appetite for American bonds, further slowing any downward pressure on rates.   One silver lining: Arizona real estate has become more affordable for international buyers due to shifts in currency exchange rates. As of June, U.K. buyers are seeing roughly a 10% discount compared to January, and Swiss buyers are saving about 11%. Even Canadians are seeing a 4% advantage. Still, international buyers represent only a small fraction of demand, especially since interest from China has cooled considerably. If we’re going to see a meaningful rebound, it’ll need to come from domestic buyers. This past week brought several noteworthy developments in the financial markets and broader economy, most notably from the Federal Reserve. We’re also seeing new waves in inflation data, fresh discussion around tariffs, and shifts in Treasury yields that continue to influence mortgage rates. Let’s break it all down and examine what it means for the housing and lending environment.   Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Hints at Future Cuts   At this week’s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, maintaining the current target range of 4.25–4.50% for the sixth straight time. While this decision was expected, the updated “dot plot” revealed a subtle shift in the Fed’s outlook. The majority of Fed officials now anticipate two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, rather than three, as previously projected. It’s a reminder that while rate cuts are likely coming, the timeline and pace remain highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation.   Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while progress has been made on reducing inflation, policymakers still need more confirmation before taking action. However, some officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, hinted that a July rate cut is not off the table, particularly if inflation continues to cool or if economic data weakens more than expected.   Inflation: Still Easing, but Not Without Some Bumps   On the inflation front, the trend remains encouraging, albeit somewhat uneven. Recent data indicate that core inflation is holding relatively steady, with year-over-year figures around 2.8%, and monthly increases coming in softer than Wall Street had anticipated. That said, expectations for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE index—have ticked slightly higher, now projected to end the year closer to 3.0%.   One underlying pressure point to watch: short-term inflation expectations among consumers have been creeping up slightly. That’s something the Fed pays close attention to, as inflation expectations can often influence actual future inflation.   Tariffs and Trade: An Undercurrent of Uncertainty   Trade tensions also grabbed headlines this week. While there is no immediate crisis, there is growing concern that a temporary pause on certain tariffs—especially those affecting Canada, the EU, and some Asian partners—could expire in early July without a new agreement being in place. Markets are watching this closely, as renewed tariffs could reintroduce inflationary pressure and disrupt supply chains, just as things were beginning to stabilize.   Interestingly, a federal court recently struck down parts of the Trump-era tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing overreach. However, the ruling is being appealed, and uncertainty still lingers over the longer-term direction of trade policy.   Markets React: Yields Inch Up, Mortgage Rates Hold Firm   With no clear timeline for rate cuts and a dash of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, markets moved cautiously this week. U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, and 30-year mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, hovering around 6.8% to 7%. The bond market initially reacted to the Fed’s press conference with a slight drop in yields, but those gains were short-lived as investors reassessed the broader economic risks.   Safe-haven assets, such as gold, saw a boost amid global unease, while equities pulled back modestly. The overall tone remains one of caution—investors are eager for rate cuts, but aren’t quite convinced they’ll come as quickly or as profoundly as once hoped.   As always, I’m here to help make sense of how these broader economic shifts affect interest rates and your overall buying power.  Feel free to reach out with questions or scenarios you’d like to run by me. 🛢️  Rising Oil Prices → Higher Inflation Conflict in the Middle East typically raises oil prices, which has already begun to happen. This affects everything from transportation to construction costs, potentially pushing inflation higher. If inflation rises, the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer or even raise them again, despite recent progress in cooling prices.   🏦  Mortgage Rates Could Stay Elevated The bond market reacts to global uncertainty by moving into safe-haven assets (like U.S. Treasuries), but if inflation fears outweigh risk-off sentiment, mortgage rates may stay high or rise further. That puts more pressure on housing affordability, which is already a challenge in most U.S. metropolitan areas.   🏘️  Buyer & Seller Behavior Buyers: Some may hold off due to rate volatility or economic uncertainty. Others may rush to lock in rates if they fear future increases. Sellers: Might delay listing until things stabilize or price cuts are no longer needed, leading to tighter supply.   🛠️  New Construction Could Slow Rising fuel and material costs may impact builder margins, potentially delaying or canceling new projects, especially in more cost-sensitive segments such as entry-level housing.   📈  Regional Impact in Phoenix, Arizona In Phoenix and its surrounding areas, demand remains high, but affordability is the gatekeeper. A jump in mortgage rates or inflation could slow sales velocity, increase the number of days on market, or put pressure on pricing, especially in suburban and luxury segments. Conversely, if rates stabilize and inflation fears ease, buyers may return, making this a short-term dip rather than a true disruption. East Valley Weather Have a great week!

Today, we stand together to remember those who died to defend our nation. We honor their courage, mourn their loss, and remain forever grateful. The Market Is Cooling—Here’s Where Things Stand This May Let’s talk about where our market stands as we near the end of May—and let’s say, it’s cooler than it was this time last year. Below is a table showing the contract ratio on May 22, 2025, and last year for each dwelling type across the Real Estate market in Phoenix, AZ, May 2025 🔍 Market Snapshot: Cooler Across the Board No matter the dwelling type, the market is softer than in 2024. Single-family homes continue to hold the most strength, but even they’re in what I’d call a tepid market. On the other hand, mobile homes and apartments are currently the weakest segments. Mobile homes were already cool a year ago, so they’ve only slipped slightly. Apartments, however, have taken the biggest hit. The contract ratio for apartments has dropped to a historically low 21.2, meaning supply is high and demand is scarce. That weak demand could be driven not just by property features, but also by broader community-level concerns. 💰 Condos & Apartments: Headwinds Ahead Rising insurance premiums and increased HOA fees weigh heavily on condo and apartment sales. Some HOAs are underinsured, and lenders are taking notice. Special assessments are also more common, none of which help with buyer confidence. Selling in these categories requires serious patience and a strong strategy. 🏡 Single-Family: Tepid but Top Tier While single-family homes are still leading the pack, the market continues to shift in favor of buyers. This week, the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) dropped by 4.1%. That’s slightly less negative than the prior week’s 4.6%, but it’s still trending the wrong way for sellers. Only four cities improved for sellers this past month, with Fountain Hills taking the top spot from Chandler. Scottsdale, Chandler, Glendale, and Phoenix all saw notable deterioration. Maricopa and Buckeye showed some positive movement, but they’re still lagging. Today, we have: 3 Seller’s Markets (2 of which are hanging on by a thread), 8 Balanced Markets, and 6 Buyer’s Markets. 📉 Supply Stabilizing, Demand Weakening There’s a small silver lining for sellers: the flood of new listings is starting to ease. Between late January and early May, we saw over 10,000 new listings every four weeks—well above the long-term average of 8,665. As of May 21, we’ve dipped to 9,283, and the trend is heading downward. We like using 28-day periods to track trends because they smooth out quirks like varying month lengths and weekly listing spikes. It’s a more accurate way to measure market momentum. So while inventory growth is slowing, demand hasn’t found its footing. Higher mortgage rates are also primarily to blame. 📈 Interest Rates: Still a Heavy Anchor The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.08%, the highest in three months. With inflation concerns, international bond market jitters, and uncertainty around U.S. fiscal policy, we will unlikely see much relief soon. If rates could drop below 6.5%, we should see a meaningful uptick in demand—but for now, many buyers remain on the sidelines. Final Thoughts The market isn’t crashing—but it’s evolving. Smart pricing, excellent presentation, and strong agent guidance matter more than ever. Whether you’re considering selling this summer or want to understand local market trends, we are here to help you navigate it confidently. Housing Market April’s single-family housing starts were 1.6% higher than in March. However, permits for future construction fell 5.1% month over month. Due to economic uncertainty and high housing costs, existing home sales dropped 0.5% in April and 2.0% for the year. According to the ICE Mortgage Monitor, Gen Z made about one in four first-time homebuyer mortgage originations in the first quarter of 2025. Economy This week's Fed speakers reaffirmed the Board's commitment to a wait-and-see approach to rate changes due to economic uncertainty. New jobless claims were better than expected, while continuing claims rose by 36 K. Despite a stable market, New jobs may be hard to find. In an Achieve survey, 32% of households reported financial gains and 33% declines last year, though 57% had expected growth and 10% worsening.   East Valley Weather Have a great week!

The Greater Phoenix, Arizona, real estate market remains less favorable for sellers overall, but there are signs that this trend is slowing. The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* this week is -3.1%, a slight improvement from last week’s -3.5%. This marks the second consecutive week where the pace of decline has eased.   Over the past month, five cities in Arizona have shifted in favor of sellers, one more than the previous week. Surprise barely nudged into the positive column, while the remaining 12 cities leaned more toward buyers. Scottsdale, Phoenix, Glendale, Gilbert, and Chandler saw the most significant deterioration for sellers. On the other hand, Fountain Hills continued to strengthen its position at the top of the table, showing the most important improvement. Maricopa also made modest gains and finally pulled ahead of Buckeye. Here's how the market stands today: 3 cities are in seller’s markets (though two are very weak) 7 cities are balanced 7 cities favor buyers, including Cave Creek, which just shifted from balanced to mild buyer’s territory   Inventory Trends & Seller Behavior Supply is beginning to trend downward as fewer new listings hit the market. This is not unique to Arizona—sellers across the country appear to be holding off, waiting for better timing. The word is out: buyers currently have more leverage than they’ve had in years. However, we expect supply to decline gradually through the summer months, before the typical seasonal rise takes effect from September to November.   May Sales Recap: Maricopa County Affidavits of Value for May 2025 are in, and here’s what we learned: Total Closed Sales: 7,097↳ down 10% from May 2024 (7,858) and 6% from April New Home Sales: 1,499↳ down 4.6% from May 2024 and 6.8% from April Resale Transactions: 5,580↳ down 11% from May 2024 and 5.8% from April   Median Sales Prices Overall: $485,000↳ Up 2.1% year-over-year and 5.2% from April New Homes: $520,000↳ Down just 0.1% YOY but up 7.2% from April Resales: $471,514↳ Up 2.5% YOY and 3.9% from April   Notably, May 2025 had two fewer business days than May 2024, so a 9% decline in closings would be expected even if activity had remained flat. Resale volume fell slightly more than expected, while new construction held up better than anticipated.   New Home Market Share New homes accounted for 21.1% of total closings in May. That’s down a hair from last month’s 21.4%, but still higher than the 20% share we saw this time last year. For reference, new builds peaked last September at 25.8%.  *Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Housing Market Construction spending fell in April, as the single-family market was hit by high rates and a growing glut of unsold homes. Though mortgage rates dipped last week, demand fell. Total mortgage applications dropped 3.9% from the week before. Unsold home inventory is up 33% from a year ago. Homes are taking longer to sell as supply outpaces demand. Economy Job openings rose in April, but layoffs surged the most in 9 months. The job market may be cooling as tariff fears cloud the economic outlook. ADP reported private payroll growth of just 37K in May. It was the lowest monthly gain since March 2023 and much less than expected. Jobless claims rose to 247K last week, the highest since October, adding to signs of a cooling job market and rising layoff risks.   ☀ Weekly Outlook (June 9–16) Scorching high temps : Expect daytime highs between 108°F and 112°F , with today hitting a scorching 107°F. Nights remain warm : Overnight lows will linger in the 77–82°F range—barely “cooling” off. Mostly sunny skies : Clear skies are expected through Friday, with some clouds on Saturday, followed by sunny skies on Sunday. Health & outdoor tips : Stay hydrated and limit sun exposure during peak hours. Apply SPF, wear a hat, and take frequent shaded breaks if you’re outside. Avoid strenuous activities midday—early mornings or evenings are safer. Have a great week!

For Buyers In April, there was a crisis of “crisis” headlines, spurred by unexpected tariffs and market volatility. The result was mortgage rates rising from 6.6% to 7.1%, which is nothing new for the housing industry. In fact, mortgage rates were higher at 7.2% just last January and even higher last May at 7.3% without any headlines screaming “crisis". Unfortunately, this time, active buyers froze with indecisiveness and shock, resulting in an 18% drop in weekly accepted contracts for three weeks after the tariff announcement. Fortunately, the first few weeks of May saw a slight recovery as some buyers woke up and returned to business. From the mess of chaos, a wave of opportunistic negative predictions about the housing market erupted across social media platforms. Even Newsweek ran an article suggesting that homes in Greater Phoenix could drop by 20%. While buyers would certainly swarm the housing market if property values suddenly dropped by 20%, the chance of that happening is slim. While Greater Phoenix is slipping farther into a buyer’s market, it’s not extreme enough for a collapse of that magnitude. Buyer’s markets over the past 25 years, excluding the 2008 sub-prime mortgage collapse, saw prices drop between 5% and 11% year-over-year, and those price declines were enough to pull the market back into a seller’s market each time. Questions persist about the degree to which Greater Phoenix homes are overvalued. To answer this, a basis must be established before the 2005-2008 bubble/crash, and a “typical home” must be defined. The median home sold in Maricopa County was 1,600 square feet in 2000 and 1,900 square feet in 2025, so a single-family home of 1,500-2,000 square feet is typical for this region. The annual appreciation rates from Q1 2001 through Q1 2004 ranged from 3.6% to 5.3%, with a median of 4.65%. The median rate across 25 years from Q1 2000 to Q1 2025 is 5.3% (high of 32.9% and low of –41.4%). Extrapolating the 4.65% appreciation rate over 25 years supports a price correction of 3% by next year. However, one could argue that prices are currently in line with where they would’ve been with a 5% annual appreciation rate over 25 years, below the 5.3% long-term median, and are already undervalued. Either way, the current buyer’s market supports declining prices over the next 3 months; 20% is extreme, but 3% is more reasonable. If mortgage rates move closer to 6.5% or lower, all projections will change again. For Sellers Brace yourselves, some buyers have become drunk with power. Negotiations have evolved from repairs and closing costs to remodeling requests in some cases, asking to replace things that are functioning correctly, but are not new or upgraded. Only six cities are left in seller’s markets, which are not very strong. They are El Mirage, Apache Junction, Tolleson, Chandler, Avondale, and Fountain Hills. Interior cities Glendale, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Gilbert all dropped from seller’s markets to balanced markets over the past 30 days, joining Mesa, Tempe, Cave Creek, Anthem, and Laveen. The remaining 13 cities are still in buyer’s markets. After having the best year ever for sales over $1M, volatility in the stock market in March and April caused lower luxury sales in April. At the same time, lower mortgage rates in March led to more closings under $500K in April. Thus, sales under $500K went from 56.7% market share in March to 60.1% in April, pulling down both the average and median price measures, and showing a 3.5% drop month-over-month and a 1.1% drop year-over-year. Both months averaged 315 closings per day. April saw a drop in contract activity, so May will be weaker for sales, but hope remains for June. Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC Mortgage Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 05/16/2025 Tariff-on, tariff-off. Tariff-on, tariff-off. Is this a macroeconomic Karate Kid? It’s become tough to interpret the latest data, mainly ‘before’ President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs took effect — but what will they look like ‘after’? That’s what’s on Fed Chairman Powell’s mind.   Fed Holds Steady on Rates, Takes "Wait and See" Approach   The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to maintain its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, continuing the pause established in January. This widely expected move comes as the Fed acknowledges increased risks to both inflation and unemployment.   Remember:  The Fed Funds Rate affects the overnight lending rate between banks, influencing broader interest rates throughout the economy, though it does not directly set mortgage or long-term rates.   What’s the bottom line?  The Fed remains focused on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. However, these goals may pull policy in opposite directions, especially with new tariffs creating economic uncertainty. Higher inflation typically prevents rate cuts, while economic slowdowns usually trigger them.   Given the uncertain impact of trade policies, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach in his post-meeting press conference: "We think right now the appropriate thing to do is to wait and see how things evolve." Powell used "wait" over twenty times during the Q&A session.   The Fed will closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment data, as future policy decisions could depend on which risks materialize first.   US-China Tariff Deal Sparks Joy.   The world’s two largest economies agreed to a 90-day partial reprieve on tariffs, and stock markets (predictably) went crazy. The NASDAQ composite index is now 9% above its pre-” Liberation Day” levels, and is only 5% below its mid-February highs. But bond markets weren’t so impressed. First, money flowed out of “risk-off” assets (like bonds) and into “risk-on” assets (like stocks). Second, the risk of a recession seems to have evaporated again. The Fed Funds Futures market is now only pricing in >50% probability of a rate cut at the FOMC’s September 17 meeting! Remember: When bond prices fall, bond yields rise. That’s just math. And when bond yields rise (e.g., the yield on 10-Year US treasury bonds is currently 4.54%), mortgage rates also generally increase. April CPI (inflation) report was pretty tame.    Both “headline” and “core” CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation for you and me) rose just 0.2% month-over-month. That allowed the annual “headline” CPI figure to drop from 2.4% → 2.3%, while annual “core” CPI was stuck at 2.8%. There were no apparent signs of tariff impact yet; most of the increase came from rising “shelter” (housing) costs. If you annualize the last three months of “core” CPI growth, you get 2.1%. And the PCE inflation measure is generally lower than the CPI (because it has a much lower weighting for “shelter” costs). And the Fed’s inflation target is 2% on “core” PCE. How close is close enough? Mortgage Market  Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current policy range is 4.25–4.50%.   June 18 FOMC Meeting: 92% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (no rate cut). This went WAY up from last week.   July 30 FOMC Meeting: 63% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (no rate cut). 34% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut at this meeting).   September 17 FOMC Meeting: 49% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut on either July 30 or Sept 17, but not both). 19% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both the July 30 and Sept 17 meetings). Phoenix Is Evolving—Here’s What That Means for You If you’ve been in the Valley for a while, you know growth is nothing new. But what we’re seeing now is more than just an increase in population—it’s a complete transformation. Billions of dollars in investment, new job centers, and entire communities are taking shape across Metro Phoenix. So, what’s happening, and why does it matter? Let’s take a closer look. 🚀 Why People Keep Moving to Phoenix Between July 2023 and July 2024, nearly 85,000 new residents chose the Phoenix metro area as home, including around 17,000 in the city of Phoenix alone. And it’s not just California transplants anymore—international migration is on the rise, too. Why Phoenix? Think affordable living, a robust job market, over 300 sunny days a year, and room to grow. From North Scottsdale to the outskirts of the Southeast and West Valleys, housing demand is climbing—and it's closely tied to where jobs and infrastructure are being developed. 💼 Where Big Business Is Making Big Moves In North Phoenix, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is building three chip plants and plans to double its workforce by 2030. Around the site is a massive $7 billion master-planned community called Halo Vista, featuring homes, retail, dining, schools, and more. Meanwhile, the Southeast Valley—places like Chandler and Gilbert—is booming with new downtown areas, trendy mixed-use spaces, and big names like Whole Foods and Dick’s House of Sport. Even the West Valley is stepping up. Cities like Tolleson and Buckeye are growing into logistics hubs with projects like Verrado Marketplace and the I-10 Gateway, ensuring jobs and amenities support new homes. 📊 Market Snapshot – April 2025 Median Home Price (Phoenix): $457,998 Annual Increase: 3.1% Top Growth Areas: Southeast Valley, North Phoenix, West Valley Recognition: Phoenix was named a Top 10 Housing Market for both sales activity and price appreciation by Realtor.com Unlike some cooling markets nationwide, Phoenix is holding strong, fueled by job growth, infrastructure upgrades, and a steady influx of buyers. ⚠️ Growth Brings Challenges Let’s be honest—this level of expansion doesn’t come without pressure. Infrastructure, skilled labor, and water resources are all being tested. But solutions are in motion: Local colleges are partnering with companies like TSMC to train skilled workers Cities are repurposing underused retail spaces to meet new needs Water sustainability is becoming a top priority in urban planning 🔮 What’s Next? Phoenix isn’t just growing—it’s changing how we live. With lifestyle-focused communities, smarter city planning, and new opportunities on the horizon, now’s a critical time to stay informed. Whether you're thinking about buying or selling or just want to understand where the market is headed, let’s connect. Brad Daniels and his team are here to help you navigate your real estate and relocation needs. This week's weather!

As we head into May, the real estate market in Phoenix and surrounding areas continues to evolve, and 2025 is proving to be far more dynamic than last year. After a relatively quiet 2024, we're now seeing new patterns that could impact buyers and sellers in the summer months.   Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Market Update for May 12t,h 2025 Fewer Cities Favoring Sellers   Only five cities improved in conditions for sellers over the last month—two fewer than just a week ago—while twelve cities shifted more in favor of buyers. The average drop in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI)* across all 17 cities was -4.1%, which is more negative than the -3.2% decline we saw the week before.   Cities such as Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, and Scottsdale lead the trend toward buyer-friendly conditions, especially in mid-range to higher-end markets. On the flip side, Buckeye and Avondale continue to show signs of improvement for sellers, driven largely by more affordable pricing and localized demand.   Market Classifications   Three cities remain in seller’s markets (though all are very weak seller markets) Eight cities are now considered balanced markets Six cities have shifted into clear buyer’s market territory   Two New Trends for May   Supply Takes a Breath: New listings declined slightly after months of steady supply growth. Just 9,857 new listings were added over the past four weeks—down from the typical 10,000+ we’ve seen consistently since January. This slight reprieve will be welcome news for sellers struggling with intense competition.   Demand Begins to Dip Again: Unfortunately for sellers, demand is slipping once more. The number of homes under contract (Week 18 data) is now lower than any year since 2000, excluding the crash years of 2007 and 2008. Combined with a weak annual sales rate, this signals potential headwinds in the months ahead.   If this trend holds, we expect the Cromford® Supply Index (CSI) to level off. However, the Cromford® Demand Index (CDI) is already declining, and the CMI is dropping more quickly than it did in April—a strong signal that conditions continue to deteriorate for sellers.   What About Home Prices?   Industry forecasts from Zillow, Fannie Mae, and others still expect a stable 2025, with modest price increases by year-end. However, based on current data, that seems increasingly doubtful.   As of now:   The average price per square foot across all property types is $295.68 That’s 2.4% lower than January 1, 2025 And 3.7% lower than this time last year   If prices remain steady from here, we’ll still end 2025 in the red. With the CMI at 76, stability might be the best-case scenario.   Whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, understanding these shifts can help you make more informed decisions. I'm always here to discuss specifics about your neighborhood or plans - Brad. * Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. Let’s examine what moved interest rates this past week and what we continue to watch in the market and the economy. The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Progress Good news on inflation! The latest PCE report reveals headline inflation remained flat month over month while dropping to 2.3% yearly (down from 2.7%). Core PCE—the Fed's favorite inflation gauge—is now at 2.6%, closer to its 2% target. Meanwhile, consumer spending surged 0.7% in March, possibly as shoppers rushed to beat upcoming tariffs. What’s the bottom line?  Shelter costs comprise 18% of Core PCE and remain key to reaching the Fed's 2% goal. While these costs have stayed stubbornly high in official data, real-time rental reports from sources like Apartment List and CoreLogic show softer trends. As PCE catches up to these real-world rental conditions, inflation numbers should continue to improve. The Fed’s “pause” continues.  For the third meeting in a row, the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the Fed Funds Rate in the target range of 4.25%-4.50%. The last time the Fed cut rates was December 18, 2024. [Federal Reserve] April Jobs Report: Looking Beyond the Headlines April brought a surprise with 177,000 new jobs added – well above the expected 130,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.   What’s the bottom line?  While April's headline number appears strong, it's important to remember these figures will be revised in the coming months. Recent history suggests caution – the first three months of 2025 saw significant downward revisions (January: -32K, February: -49K, March: -43K). If April follows this pattern, job growth may fall below forecasts.   The problem is that the bond market reacts to the headline figure but typically ignores the revisions. Why? Because people are too busy looking at the new month’s headline data. As the table below shows, the number of jobs added in 1Q 2025 has already been revised down by a total of 124,000 (an average of 41,000 per month)! BLS Non-farm payroll  (monthly jobs added in thousands) And this certainly isn’t just a 2025 thing. In 2024, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 211,000 (~18,000 per month). And in 2023, the monthly job additions were revised down by a total of 360,000 (30,000 per month). Where would treasury yields (and mortgage rates) be if we got the right (revised) jobs number first? We’ll never know, but you must think a lot lower. Mortgage Market The Fed kept rates on hold again. A 25 bps rate cut is expected at the next meeting, but that is far from certain given the uncertain impact of tariffs.   With average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering around 7%, I feel another spring selling season slipping away. If mortgage rates don’t move lower, inventory will start to pile up, which could accelerate price declines in markets where inventory (both existing and new) is already high.   Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing for rate cuts. The current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%. June 18 FOMC Meeting:  66% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting (slightly higher than last week), 34% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50%. July 30 FOMC Meeting:  56% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (implying one 25 bps rate cut on either June 18 or July 30, but not both). 23% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (implying a 25 bps rate cut at both meetings). Housing Market Buyers returned to the spring market despite economic jitters. Purchase mortgage apps rose 11% for the week and 13% from a year ago. (Note: this is the national trend) According to the ICE Mortgage Monitor, first-time homebuyers made up 58% of agency purchase lending in the first quarter of 2025. Fannie Mae reports fewer people think it's a good time to sell as rising inventory, stalled sales, and economic uncertainty fuel competition fears. Economy The Fed held its policy rate steady at its May meeting, warning of growing inflation and unemployment risks amid trade policy uncertainty. Unemployment claims fell last week. After spiking briefly at the end of April, current levels again signal a stable labor market. April's ISMN data was mixed. Manufacturing activity contracted for a 2nd straight month, while the services sector grew modestly. East Valley Weather Keeping it under 100 Degrees this week in Mesa, Arizona. I'll take it! Have a great week, and don't hesitate to call or message me for your real estate inquiries. 602-679-1025 Direct